Columns

•  Basil Rajapaksa’s strategy works; President gets two-thirds majority to carry out his programme
•  UNP suffers its worst-ever defeat, but Ranil indicates he will stay on as leader
•  Premadasa’s SJB fares significantly well, but fails to secure Sinhala-Buddhist vote despite campaigning in that direction

A victorious SLPP leader Mahinda Rajapaksa surrounded by supporters and security officials leaving his Tangalle residence, Carlton, on Thursday for Colombo to attend to post-poll matters.

The first was the landslide 145-seat victory the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP)-led alliance won, much to the surprise of even President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. Both, like many others in their ilk, had thought of a lesser number though confident of a comfortable majority.

There was no issue over being short of just five seats for a two-thirds majority in Parliament. Four other smaller political parties which favour the SLPP and won five seats will bring the total to 150. They are Eelam People’s Democratic Party leader Douglas Devananda from the Jaffna District and Kulasingham Thileepan from the Wanni District (two seats). Others are A.L.M. Athaullah, representing the National Congress (Digamadulla District); Sivanesatthurai Chandrakanthan (alias Pillayan, his nom de guerre as an LTTE cadre earlier) from the Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP) and Angajan Ramanathan (Jaffna District) who contested on the Sri Lanka Freedom Party ticket. In addition, a Tamil National Alliance (TNA) politician from the North is also expected to join in.

Up to now, without the expected addition, that will mean 149 seats. Leaving a seat for the new Speaker of Parliament, what is required to pass a resolution or legislation with a two-thirds vote would only require one more – which is within easy reach of the alliance. The Proportional Representation system, introduced with the 1978 Constitution, has not stretched so much unusually to one political grouping, the SLPP. Its aim was to ensure broader representation by candidates from political parties and independent groups. Therein lay an important message — most voters had made up their mind, despite the Covid-19 pandemic, in opting for the SLPP. There are a number of reasons for it. That includes the voter disgust over the conduct of opposition members. This was mostly when they were in power as the Yahapalana  (good governance) government. Their lapses were far too many.

It was largely allegations of bribery and corruption against those of the previous administration. Those accusations were not matched by any action. Most cases were suppressed. Ministers were known to have pussy footed and even changed the course of some investigations. At the end, the same accusations befell those in the Yahapalana government, with most claiming that the wrongdoings were to a much higher degree. Some of the major transactions came to light and they continued as if nothing had happened.

In this exercise, Mahinda Rajapaksa, Gotabaya, Basil, and members of their families then became the targets and accusations continued. Then came a rapid transformation of the political landscape. Ahead of the local council elections in February 2018, Basil Rajapaksa formed the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). It polled 40% of the votes (15.7 million were eligible to vote) and won the highest number of seats and local authorities. Then at the presidential election in November, last year, SLPP candidate Gotabaya Rajapaksa won 52.25% or 6.9 million votes. Another strategy of Basil Rajapaksa paid off last Wednesday. It was he who had asked the SLFP to contest the Jaffna district instead of fielding a candidate from his own party. Similarly, he urged M.L.A.M. Athaullah to contest under the National Congress ticket. They won.

The two-and-half-year-old SLPP has thus placed a firm footprint in Sri Lanka’s political firmament. Wednesday’s elections furthermore displayed the SLPP’s multi-dimensional direction. That was the addition of new parliamentarians from Viyathmaga, Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s own political organisation. They have joined the traditional followers at onetime SLFP and thereafter the SLPP. Until now, some of them have only been named to top official positions in Sri Lanka and abroad. A few examples — Nalaka Godahewa came first on preference votes in the Gampaha district polling 325,429 and Professor Channa Jayasumana with 125,980 came second in the Anuradhapura district. Rear Admiral Sarath Weerasekera came first in preference votes winning 328,092 votes in the Colombo district. Viyathmaga candidates have also found places in the SLPP National List and are set to become Cabinet Ministers.

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa will swear-in brother Mahinda Rajapaksa as Prime Minister at a ceremony at the Kelaniya Raja Maha Vihare today. Thereafter, the new cabinet of ministers, not expected to exceed 26, was to be appointed tomorrow at a ceremony at the Sri Dalada Maligawa in Kandy. It was to be held at the Magul Maduwa (Auidience Hall). It has now been put off till Friday August 14. This indicates a delay in Cabinet formation with many aspirants claiming positions.

The new Speaker is expected to be Chamal Rajapaksa, who has previously held this position. Among new faces in the Cabinet are most likely to be Maithripala Sirisena, Namal Rajapaksa, Udaya Gammanpila and Ali Sabry.

Premier Rajapaksa polled the highest number of preference votes. Contesting from the Kurunegala district, he received 527,364 votes. The earlier record was held by former Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe who won 500,566 votes in the Colombo district at the 2015 parliamentary elections.

On Friday, the SLPP handed in a list of 17 names of those who will be on their National List. They are: Prof G.L Peiris, Sagara Kariyawasam (lawyer/SLPP Secretary), Mohamed Ali Sabry (lawyer), Jayantha Weerasinghe (lawyer), Professor Charitha Herath (who is an expert in media matters), Manjula Dissanayake, Senior Professor, Gevindu Kumarathunga, Mohammad Muzzammil, Prof Tissa Vitharana, Engineer Yadamini Gunawardena (son of Foreign Minister Dinesh Gunawardena), Dr Surendra Ragavan, (former Northern Province Governor), Tiran Alles (businessman and publisher),

Dr Seetha Arambepola, Jayantha Ketagoda and Mohomad Faleel Marjan. There are some potential ministerial, state minister and deputy minister candidates from this National List.

There were three other important measures adopted by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. They won much traction in the SLPP polls campaign. One was the measures taken to contain the deadly Covid-19 from spreading. At present the number of those afflicted by the disease remains below 3,000 with only 11 deaths. The other is the major crackdowns he ordered on the illegal drug trade and the bosses who ran them, even from jails together with an order to crackdown on the underworld. His “meet the people” election campaign where many questions on these issues were raised was much in focus and won him wider public support. That, together with Premier Rajapaksa’s campaign was cause for victory.

UNP’S CATASTROPHE

The two-and-half year-old baby SLPP’s victory dealt a severe blow to the United National Party (UNP). It won no Parliament representation barring one — a National List position. The UNP polled only 249,435 votes countrywide. This is a mere 2.15% of the votes cast. As can be observed, twice that number of votes came for Premier Rajapaksa through preference votes in Kurunegala district. This is in marked contrast to 5,098,916 or 45.66 % of the votes UNP received at the 2015 parliamentary elections. Other than that, rejected votes countrywide on Wednesday’s poll amounted to 744,373 or 4.58%. That is much more than the votes the UNP polled throughout Sri Lanka. The spoilt could include would-be UNP voters who were angry over the party breakup. Quite clearly, in the four and half years the UNP was in power, its support base had deteriorated at the grassroots level and its branch organizations had remained in disarray.

It was a humiliating defeat was for UNP leader and former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. Onetime Finance Minister Ravi Karunanayake, who easily ran the costliest high-profile campaign in Colombo, also lost like many other UNP ministers and stalwarts. They included Navin Dissanayake (Nuwara Eliya district), Vajira Abeywardena (Galle district), Akila Viraj Kariyawasam (Kurunegala district), Arjuna Ranatunga (Gampaha district) and Daya Gamage (Colombo district). Other major UNP losses — Palitha Thevarapperuma and Lakshman Wijemanne (Kalutara district), Palitha Range Bandara (Puttalam district), Lakshman Seneviratne and Ravi Samaraweera (Badulla district), Wasantha Aluvihare and Ranjith Aluvihare (Matale district), Vijayakala Maheswaran (Jaffna district) and Anoma Gamage (Digamadulla district).

Some of the controversial issues during the tenure of UNP’s Yahapalana government did affect its public image. Main among them is the Central Bank bond scam over which President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has declared during the campaign trail that “action will be taken against all those involved.” Another is the attack by Muslim extremists on Easter Sunday last year. The attacks left 268 men, women, and children dead. Some startling details have unfolded in the recent weeks.

This has disproved or contradicted the findings of a Parliamentary Select Committee known to have protected some former ruling party personalities. The State Intelligence Service (SIS) then Director, Nilantha Jayawardena, head of the country’s premier agency told the Commission that he had warned the then Law and Order Minister Sagala Ratnayake, a year before the attacks about serious threats. Ratnayake also functioned as Chief of Staff of the Prime Minister. Of course, compounding all these factors was the internecine fighting that led to a division in the party and the exit of a larger faction.

As results of postal voting followed by electoral constituencies began flowing through the electronic media on Thursday, one factor was becoming increasingly clear. The UNP was being mentioned almost every time as taking the fourth place – that is after the SLPP, the Samagi Jana Balavegaya, and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna-led National People’s Power (NPP). In fact, the JVP recorded a marginal increase in its vote base compared to the 2015 parliamentary elections. It is amidst this that the Galle district defeated candidate, Vajira Abeywardena, a onetime minister, held a hurriedly summoned news conference on Thursday afternoon.

He said that the split in the party was not a big issue and there was no need to change UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. He claimed that the party was in the process of being re-organised in 2019 when the presidential elections were called. He also claimed that what was required in the party was tough discipline. Those remarks, coming just when the results were being released, make clear Abeywardena wanted Ranil Wickremesinghe to continue as leader. The question is whether he has received his leader’s concurrence before making a public plea. One source familiar with the developments said he did. This is over an issue that was one of the main causes for Wickremesinghe and his party’s defeat. He refused calls to cede the leadership to Premadasa.  Besides this, there is also the issue of who will represent the UNP on the National List slot. The UNP policy has been that it will not give National List seats to those who have lost at the elections. It is highly unlikely Wickremesinghe will go for that slot, said a leading UNPer who did not wish to be named.

UNP General Secretary Akila Viraj Kariyawasam, however, conceded on Friday that “people have given a mandate to the Sri Lanka Podujana Party (SLPP)” and declared that the UNP is “prepared to accept responsibility “for failures and shortcomings.” Here is the full text of the statement:

“The United National Party (UNP) wishes to convey its appreciation to the National Elections Commission for conducting the 2020 Parliamentary Elections successfully. It is the 19th Amendment brought by our Government that ensured this election was conducted in a free and peaceful manner. The UNP also wishes to take this opportunity to thank all public officers, tri-forces and the police who got involved in conducting a free and fair election. This election was interrupted due to the COVID-19 pandemic which partly contributed to the destruction of our economy.

“The UNP is the only party which presented a strategy to control COVID-19 and to resuscitate and strengthen the home economy. However, the people have given a massive mandate to the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna and the UNP has encountered the greatest setback in its history despite many achievements which brought long-lasting benefits to the country and the people. As a party we faced many challenges internally as well as externally.

“The UNP is prepared to accept the responsibility for failures and shortcomings, both the result of its own actions and the actions of others. It is evident that in this election the political parties based on policies have been overtaken by political movements. This could lead to an unstable political situation in the years to come. The UNP would like to appeal to its supporters and the general public to accept the outcome of the election peacefully. The party will be re-organised and restructured to face the challenges and we will be moving forward with determination and vigour as has been done on previous occasions.”

It is noteworthy to mention that the UNP statement reiterates that “the party will be re-organised and restructured to face the challenges ….” Is this not an assertion that have been made ad nauseum when the party was embroiled in a crisis situation?  No doubt, it is a public admission that the party had not been, contrary to all pledges, re-organised or restructured. It went to the poll without that. Would that satisfy the concerns of the UNP supporters? What of the formidable group that broke away to form the Samagi Jana Balavegaya? What was their grouse? Is there no move to win them back, at least at the grassroots level? What is needed for that and also to regain UNP’s credibility? These questions appear to be overlooked.

On Friday, UNP leader Wickremesinghe and General Secretary Akila Viraj Kariyawasam met some members of the Working Committee and office bearers at the party headquarters in Srikotha, in Rajagiriya. Many were invited but only a few turned up. Wickremesinghe declared that he would now re-build the party from zero or scratch onwards — the first formal statement that suggests that he wants to continue as UNP leader. Kariyawasam said he was “not discouraged” by the election results and others too should not be. The defeat should be taken as a challenge to build a strong and forceful party, he pointed out. Would that mean Kariyawasam would continue as UNP’s General Secretary too?

Srikotha has come under police guard since Thursday after fears that SJB factions would take control. Such a move was ruled out by their leader, Sajith Premadasa at a news conference yesterday. He said the question would not arise since his party would not re-join the UNP.

THE SJB SAGA

Like the SLPP, which is a two-and-half-year-old political party, the SJB is an infant, less than six months old. Its garnering 2,771,980 or 23.99 % of the votes cast has won it 54 seats including seven from the National List. A close perusal of its win highlights an incredibly significant message. In most instances, the SJB has received a substantial volume of votes from the minority communities, Tamils, Muslims, and even Christians. At least 18 of their MPs are Muslims and Tamils. Thus, quite clearly, the SJB has not garnered a higher number of Sinhala Buddhist votes. For example, in the Kandy district, the only Sinhala MP is Lakshman Kiriella. In the Colombo district, it is only Premadasa and Champika Ranawaka.

The votes have gone mostly to the SLPP underscoring a new and important reality. Even the SJB’s other front-line leaders are from different parties. Examples: Champika Ranawaka, Mano Ganesan, Rauff Hakeem and Rishad Bathiuddin. Former ministers P. Harrison and Chandrani Bandara, now with the SJB, who contested from the Anuradhapura district were defeated.

Others who lost include A.H.M. Fowzie, Sujeeva Senasinghe and Hirunika Premachandra (Colombo district); Ajith Manapperuma, Vijith Vijayamuni Zoysa, Chatura Senaratne and Edward Gunasekera (Gampaha district); Ajith B. Perera (Kalutara district); Piyasena Gamage (Galle district); Indika Bandaranayake (Kurunegala district); Ananda Kumarasiri (Moneragala district); Ali Zahir Mowlana (contested as SLMC candidate from Batticaloa district) and Karunaratne Paranavithane (Ratnapura district),

Noticeably, there was also a marked shift in SJB campaigning by Premadasa and some of his close colleagues in the party. In a bid to woo the Sinhala Buddhist vote, they leaned on a good volume of nationalistic rhetoric.

Even this did not pay off but only drew the votes of the minorities. This was amidst the absence of key players like Mangala Samaraweera, Malik Samarawickrema and Kabir Hashim (who was busy with his own campaign) who were responsible for forming the SJB. Instead, non-UNPers including Tissa Attanayake (SJB National Organiser), Shiral Lakthilaka (earlier Senior Advisor to former President Maithripala Sirisena), Dayan Jayatilleke and others had become Premadasa’s think tank. Thus, the UNP’s secular ideals were almost lost and the SJB was charting a new course wittingly or unwittingly. This, no doubt, will become a formidable challenge for Premadasa in the weeks and months to come. He has to keep his 54 MPs together, that too for five years barring any eventuality.

It is also clear from the votes cast for the JVP led Jathika Jana Balavegaya (National People’s Power), that a sizeable segment of UNP votes had gone to the NPP. Notably, the JVP (through the NPP) has secured a marginal increase in votes as against the 2015 parliamentary elections. This is while another sizeable segment refrained from voting either for the UNP or the SJB in the light of their split. JVP’s Sunil Handunetti lost in the Matara district. He served as Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Public Enterprises (COPE). He was widely respected for his dispassionate outlook towards various issues and for avoiding politics in this role.

Here are a few examples from different electoral districts:

Balapitiya electorate

SLPP                           25,850 votes or 73.05 %

SJB                            6,105  votes or  17.25%

The margin                 19,745 or 55.8 %

Hiniduma electorate

SLPP                           50,395 votes or 68.91%

SJB                            16,587 votes or 22.68%

The margin                 33,803 votes or 46.23%

Deniyaya electorate

SLPP                           51,681 votes or 72.66 %

SJB                            11,619 votes or 16.34%

The margin                 40,062 votes or 56.32%

Hakmana electorate

SLPP                           52,245 votes or 78.84%

SJB                            8,701 votes or 13.00%

The margin                 43,544 votes or 65.64%

Akuressa electorate

SLPP                           51,167 votes or 74.28%

SJB                            10,052 votes or 14.59%

The margin                 41,115 votes or 59.69%

Kamburupitiya electorate

SLPP                           45,783 votes or 78.17%

SJB                            7,512 votes or 12.83%

The margin                 38,212 votes or 65.34%

These southern electorates, besides others, are largely Sinhala Buddhist strongholds. The wide disparity in the margins show that the SJB has not been able to chip into those votes.

Yesterday, former Chairman of the UNP and now with the SJB, Kabir Hashim telephoned his leader, Sajith Premadasa and urged him to name Mayantha Dissanayake on the National List. Dissanayake did not contest Wednesday’s elections reportedly at the request of SJB Kandy district candidate Lakshman Kiriella. Hashim was elected from the Kegalle district while Kiriella too won. Hashim pointed out that Dissanayake brother of Naveen Dissanayake (UNP) who was defeated  in the Nuwara Eliya district, had been assured a National List position if he did not enter the polls fray.

EQUATIONS CHANGE IN THE NORTH

The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) which contested northern and eastern polling districts under the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi also suffered a blow. The 16 seats it held in Parliament have now been reduced to ten – a reality which lowers its political clout. This is particularly in the backdrop of the two-thirds majority the SLPP has received obviating the need to bargain on any deal with the SLPP-led government. Moreover, Douglas Devananda, tipped to be a cabinet minister and Angajan Ramanathan, will overshadow the TNA when it comes to negotiations with the government. The TNA has already lent cause to it by demanding in its manifesto a federal set up under a unitary state. Past political developments have made the word “federal” a dirty one. The TNA also sought a re-merger of the north and east.

There was commotion at the Jaffna counting centre in the early hours of Friday morning when preference votes of the electorate were being counted. One of the main candidates, Abraham Sumanthiran, was not present for some time. When he returned in the wee hours of Friday, accompanied by his supporters, Police blocked the entry of others barring the candidate. The crowd hurled bottles and stones at the Police. A team of STF commandos rounded up a few during the commotion. Crowds then began hurling abuse at Sumanthiran but he was safely escorted by the Police when he moved. A supporter of Angajan Ramanathan was injured and hospitalised.

Around that time, Raviraj Shasikala, who was then in second position, was escorted away. Videos on the melee are widely circulating not only in Sri Lanka but also in some European capitals. She is the wife of Nadarajah Raviraj, a lawyer, MP, and onetime Mayor of Jaffna. He was shot dead in Colombo in 2006. She has been elected from the Jaffna district together with C.V. Wigneswaran and Gajendrakumar Ponnambalam. In a sense, this means that there is now representation for hard-line Tamil opinion in Parliament with the entry of the two newcomers. A setback for the TNA was the defeat of its leader, Mavai Senathirajah and Jaffna Mayor Emmanuel Arnold, who took leave to contest.

OUTLOOK

Wednesday’s poll began on a slow note with a national average of 25 percent of the votes cast in the forenoon, according to an Election Commission official. This prompted the Commission to believe polling would not go beyond 55%. Concerned EC officials urged state run media, particularly the radio, to make repeated appeals to the voters to go and vote. The announcement said there was no threat of coronavirus since health guidelines were in force in all polling stations.

This could be a contributory factor. Polling in the afternoon became brisk and the voter turnout rose to 71 % at the end of polls, still 6% lower than the 2015 parliamentary election. There were no major incidents barring a murder in Anuradhapura but it was not related to polls.

The man who was at the helm of the poll, Mahinda Deshapriya, received both bouquets and brickbats during the campaign. He was also in an unenviable position due to his views coming into conflict with other members of the EC, sometimes very unfairly. These notwithstanding, however, all credit should go to Deshapriya, for conducting a trouble free, partiality-claims free and orderly parliamentary election, his last during his stint.

Throughout the polls campaign, SLPP leaders have reiterated that they would fulfil the pledges made to the people. They had earlier pointed out that the absence of a Parliament hindered the enforcement of most of them. Now, a new Parliament is in place and will meet for the first time on August 20. So, it is now up to them to keep their word. They are aware that otherwise they could face the same fate that befell the UNP — a total public rejection.