News
Transport experts on collision course; controversy rages over Kelani Valley railway project
Railway development in Sri Lanka has turned into a battleground.
Soon after the Government said it no longer wants funding from Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) for the Colombo Light Rail Transit (LRT), the proposed Kelani Valley Line (KVL) upgrade is now mired in controversy.
The Kelani Valley line in Dematagoda
Covering 23km from Homagama to Maradana, it was to be funded by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The agency recently said the project was off its country plans, as advised by the Sri Lankan Government.
The project’s cost was long queried by many including the Institution of Engineers of Sri Lanka (IESL) which protested that the quoted price was significantly steeper than the engineer’s estimate.
A video clip of Lalithasiri Gunaruwan, a Colombo University Economics Department Professor, slamming the ADB-funded project was recently circulated on social media. He was not only trolled in the mistaken belief that he was referring to the LRT–which he was not–but proponents of the KVL project shot down his arguments on technical grounds.
One of the most vociferous critics has been Dimantha de Silva, a Senior Lecturer in Civil Engineering at the Moratuwa University. He has rejected Prof Gunaruwan’s view that the Homagama-Maradana upgrade will only reduce travel time by five minutes, saying it will go down from 68 to 42 minutes.
He has defended a 30-second stop at each station, another contentious proposal, as sufficient and said it was decided upon using train simulation software. And while he has admitted that only 30,000 commuters currently use the KVL, he attributed this to neglect, unreliability and repeated breakdowns. Once improved, more people will choose that line.
But the cost has been the most controversial subject. It was reportedly revised down from around US$ 2.5bn to US$ 1.4bn within months. Dr de Silva, who is a project consultant, maintains the reduction was owing to detailed cost estimations being prepared and a correction in the exchange rate.
The elevated track, too, has been challenged as a waste of money. Dr de Silva has countered that there are too many level crossings on the track. This will lead to delays, cost escalations and safety issues.
His viewpoints received widespread coverage. This week, however, critics of the KVL project hit back, asking: “Who is misleading whom?”
These analysts agree that quality public transport is the only way to solve traffic and transport problems in Colombo; and that railway electrification and “quality upgrading” is a key component of modernisation.
The IESL and transport experts have for decades recommended the highly-trafficked suburban rail section from Panadura to Veyangoda as being the most feasible and beneficial for electrification. Why, then, is there a controversy regarding the electrification of KVL?
The cost–now estimated by consultants and the project office at US$ 1.424mn (Rs 262.3bn)–remains a problem.
“There are many other public transport improvements that will benefit many more people that could be carried out with such a large amount of unprecedented borrowing for the public transport industry,” said Amal Kumarage, Head of Department of Transport and Logistics at Moratuwa University.
The high cost has increased operating and maintenance fees. This, in turn, has caused the proposed fares to rise to 2.3 times of what it is now. The project will have to be subsidised by the Treasury, Prof Kumarage warns.
While consultants DOHWA Engineering Company Ltd released a feasibility study that deemed the project to be economically and financially viable, “a closer look at the manner in which these conclusions have been reached is found to mislead the Government, the people of Sri Lanka and the ADB which had pledged to consider a loan facility for this project”.
Even the ADB has started an internal review of the project owing to “gaps in data integrity and inconsistent conclusions”. “But some individual consultants to the project appear to have unleashed a massive campaign to bolster its implementation by pushing incorrect myths of its ‘vast’ benefits instead of correcting mistakes and issues in planning, design and appraisal,” Prof Kumarage said.
For instance, it was a myth that the KVL–as designed–would hugely save travel time for everyone in the High Level corridor. A review of the report finds that current travel times used “are exaggerated, do not include access time to stations, compare only the evening peak hour in order to demonstrate huge savings in travel time, etc”.
There are corroborating surveys cited. “The impression given that all current train users will save 26 minutes is incorrect,” the Prof said. “Part of the promised time savings comes by reducing the stop time at stations. When critically assessed, the maximum door-to-door travel time savings for passengers would be marginal or, at times, even negative. This makes the proposed design less attractive for new passengers.”
It was a myth, too, to claim the KVL will carry seven to eight times more passengers than now after the proposed development, he maintained. “Currently there are less than 20,000 passengers at the maximum load point on this line,” Prof Kumarage pointed out. “They predict that, when the project is completed in five years, it will increase by 850 percent! This was determined by assuming an unprecedented and unsubstantiated population growth in the Western Province.”
“It appears that, according to the consultant’s projections, more than 60 percent of the passengers on the corridor would be carried by railway–a feat unmatched anywhere else in the world even for the best of the railways,” he said. “Fewer passengers would mean fewer trains are needed and fewer benefits from the project.”
Around 37 percent of the distance between Maradana and Padukka is classified as being curved with around 25 sharp curves. Here, trains that should generate speeds of 60-70 km/hr will have to slow down to 45 km/hr for passenger safety and comfort.
But consultants have recommended that a vast majority of these curves are retained, not straightened. If so, “it will become the curviest, slowest and costliest elevated railway to be ever built”, said Priyal de Silva, former General Manager of Railways. This will effectively negate the operation of any express trains, say, from Avissawella, as it will still take two hours. Similar distances–such as from Aluthgama to Colombo and Polgahawela to Colombo–are covered in one hour even today.
The primary engineering concern is the consultant’s recommendation to elevate the track between Maradana and Padukka (35km) saying trains can be run more frequently.
This is justified on the basis of running trains more frequently and by committing a serious error in assuming gate closure times of three minutes when even the current average delays on the KVL are only around 90 seconds.
“The higher train frequency justified by the inflated passenger volumes and these ridiculous gate closure times have been used to justify an additional expenditure of around US$ 500mn to elevate the line when, at most, only around six kilometers need to be elevated,” Prof Kumarage said. “This increase alone is about what it cost to construct the Southern Expressway from Kottawa to Galle. The worst blunder is recommending elevation while keeping the curves virtually as they are.”
The consultant’s passenger forecasts and cost estimates keeping changing even to-date, these experts said. The IESL found major errors in assumptions and calculations. These were not properly answered or corrected. But even once rectified, it is unlikely to justify the spending of Rs 260bn “for a flawed and expensive design”.
This does not mean the project should be abandoned. “Improve line quality and double track,” Prof Kumarage said. “Move stations to passenger-friendly locations. Improve station platform heights and lengths. Split platforms, to be downstream of busy crossings. Improve crossings with world class equipment and road surfacing. Run electric trains. Straighten severe curves under a long-term plan.”
“The electrification of the entire suburban railway system is a long overdue project,” said Dr Tilak Siyambalapitiya, energy sector expert. “However, it should not be at any cost. There is a cost at which the country will gain from that expenditure and it will lose economically from that investment if that cost exceeds.”
The KVL project can be implemented in stages, Prof Kumarage reiterated, starting with realignment and double-tracking where even faster train travel times can be achieved. Elevation must be limited to essential sections. Then, he predicted, the total cost to achieve much higher benefits is likely to be at least US$ 500mn (Rs 92bn) less.