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Health experts the world over as well as the World Health Organisation (WHO) tell us that the world will have to live with the COVID-19 virus for at least one year or more. Even if a vaccine is discovered and administered, there will be no quick fix solution as the process is likely to take a considerable period of time to achieve its goals.

This has highlighted the helplessness of human beings when faced with a crisis over which they have little or limited control.  All what governments and citizens can do is to manage and control the spread of the virus while the world awaits the arrival of the elusive vaccine.

With a diplomatic war in full force in Asia between China and the US for dominance in the region, the question that inhabitants of the Asian region have to ask themselves is whether, like with COVID- 19, they will have to live with this open battle for supremacy between two world powers. The only difference is that there is no likelihood of a “vaccine” that will settle the ongoing tussle to dominate South Asia, and by extension East Asia as well.

Countries like Sri Lanka with little or no capacity to influence the relationship between the US and China, will have to take innovative steps to steer clear of the minefield that constitutes the relationship between the two countries.

How successfully this is done will determine how effectively the country can weather the impact of the US-China struggle for hegemony.

When US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo visited Sri Lanka last week, the war of words between the two world giants erupted on Sri Lankan soil in a manner which is unusual, in diplomatic dealings between countries.

While countries do attack each other openly on the world stage it is usually done from one’s territory or from that of a territory in a country which shares the same view of the subject of criticism. In Sri Lanka’s case both the US and China are old and longstanding friends, and it was rather unprecedented that both of them traded charges against each other while on Sri Lankan soil.

The Chinese Embassy in a statement at the beginning of last week said:“We are firmly opposed to the United States taking the opportunity of the State Secretary’s visit to sow and interfere in China-Sri Lanka relations, and to coerce and bully Sri Lanka.”

The embassy said China’s ties with Sri Lanka goes back 2,000 years and the two countries did not need a third party to dictate terms.

At the joint press conference with Foreign Minister Dinesh Gunawardena, the US Secretary described the Chinese Government as a predator.

“The Chinese Communist Party is a predator,” he declared.

The Chinese Embassy in Colombo hit back saying: “Sorry Mr. Secretary, we’re busy promoting China-Sri Lanka friendship and co-operation, not interested in your Alien vs. Predator game invitation.”

Earlier ahead of the trip, Dean Thompson, a senior State Department official in the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, said Sri Lanka must make tough choices to secure its economic independence over the longer term.

One of the more positive outcomes of the visit may have been the clarification offered by the US Secretary of State with regard to the MCC Agreement.

In an interview with Prasad Dodangodage of  Sri Lanka Rupavahini Corporation, Mr. Pompeo elaborated as follows in regard to media reports that his visit was aimed at pressurising  Sri Lanka into signing the MCC Agreement:

Secretary Pompeo: “Yeah. Well, so I’ve actually read the Sri Lankan newspapers this morning. They mostly got the purpose of the visit wrong. Look, the MCC is one strand of an offer that we made.  If the Sri Lankan people want that, great.  If they choose to go another path, that’s certainly fine. There are so many important things that we can work on together to make this partnership important, and for each of our two countries, to be an important part of this region which delivers on these democratic visions that we share so closely.”

From the Secretary of State’s remarks it is now clear that the signing of the MCC agreement is entirely a matter for Sri Lanka to decide.

Another feature of the visit was that there was no joint statement from the two parties clearly indicating that they were unable to agree on many matters.

Sri Lanka’s short sighted economic policies in the long run have greatly contributed to its lack of capacity to navigate the consequences of events it has no control over. The ill advised building of the Hambantota Port gave China a foothold to play a significant role in the country’s economy.

The Hambantota Port, Mattala Airport and other projects that did not foresee sufficient income that would contribute to repayment of these loans, have resulted in an increasingly heavy burden on the economy.

The Yahapalana Government which came to power in 2015  was hard put to settle these loans and  finally agreed to hand over the HambantotaPort on a 99 year lease to China in settlement of its debt.

China has in recent years pumped in billions of dollars in infrastructure projects in Sri Lanka as part of President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative, aimed at linking Asia, Europe and beyond, to the alarm of India and the US.

The problem with China’s investments in Sri Lanka is that they are done through state agencies, and therefore they have made such ventures in our country on behalf of the Chinese State, unlike US investments which are essentially private sector operations.

The presence of a large number of Chinese workmen, as well as other Chinese personnel, in the country has seen the likes of extremistSinhala Nationalist outfits muttering that Sri Lanka is looking like a Chinese colony and that very soon Chinese dual citizens may enter Parliament.

At the joint press conference with the Secretary of State, Foreign Minister Dinesh Gunawardenawent on to emphasise the close ties that Sri Lanka had enjoyed with the United States.

He said the United States is one of Sri Lanka’s major development partners with over US$ two billion worth of development assistance in wide-ranging areas including: agriculture, environment, natural resources, health, education, business development, trade, and humanitarian assistance.

The US remained Sri Lanka’s largest single market with exports of US$ 3.1 billion in 2019 and even in the present context of COVID-19 related market downturn remains in a similar position with US$ 1.1 billion for the first half of this year.

Clearly Sri Lanka needs both the US and China as partners who contribute towards its economic development. To insulate itself as far as possible from the effects of the fight for dominance of the two countries in the Indo-Pacific region, Sri Lanka must look to diversifying its sources of development assistance and avoid over-dependence on one or more countries.

As part of such a strategy it would have been prudent to avail itself of the Japanese assistance for the Light Rail project which for some inexplicable reason it spurned. Japan has been one of the foremost investors in the country and has no hegemonic ambitions. Besides the terms and conditions of the Light Rail project were very favourable to the country.

In its strategy of diversifying its sources of development assistance Sri Lanka could well look more at multi-lateral agencies than powerful countries with hegemonic aims.

While it is true that bodies like the World Bank and IMF impose conditions that may not be to the liking of the Government, such conditions could be negotiated and the adverse impacts minimised.

 (javidyusuf@gmail.com)