Working towards a fair society and economic growth during COVID-19
The escalating PCR positive number alone is not a disaster for the country, as the “case rate” (the number of positive PCR cases divided by the total number of PCRs done) is almost static for the past few months. Considering this, the curfew enforced in October in Sri Lanka was unnecessary. The latter seems to be due to a misunderstanding of basic statistics in public health. Collectively, the COVID-19 epidemic control in Sri Lanka continue to fail and strategic actions are lagging. Holding the tiger’s tail and reacting to the daily emerging situations are not successful approaches to the current problem.
The COVID task force, administrators of the health department, and the minister of health should take responsibility for the failure of controlling the community spread. These led to major economic shortfalls; loss of production, exports, and disrupted supply chains; and human suffering. Continuing the same, expecting different results is not a wise approach. Whereas the most recent approach (November 2020) of “local” lockdowns is one of the correct and effective approaches that should have implemented from May 2020. This causes less harm to people and the economy, yet capable of controlling the spread.
Negative consequences
of curfew
In addition to the economic harm, the curfew-related increase of physical and mental disorders and community/home deaths are continuing. However, except for the affected families, nobody seems to care about the hardships of the elderly, the poor, and the disabled. Particularly those families dependent on “daily wage-earners” who are starving. There were other positive steps taken by the health authorities, such as the implementation of basic public health measures in the country but not strategic actions. Many decisions and actions that were taken by the task force, the propagation of inaccurate information, lost opportunities due to errors of management of COVID-19 in Sri Lanka are astonishing.
Nevertheless, the above-mentioned was not the impression propagated to the public. The government spent millions of rupees in maintaining the task force and the actions of the health department. But the refusal to carry community testing and expansion led to promulgate misleading information (including glorified videos on the health department website), the media-hyped these. Mentioned outcomes, especially the erroneously reported low prevalence of COVID-19 and associated deaths from April 2020 onwards in Sri Lanka, mostly were due to extremely low testing rates. Nevertheless, enough to brain-wash the local public and the expatriates alike, to believe that everything was going well.
Failure of managing COVID-19
To overcome this, the task force created new terminology (as an old saying says; “newly improved…,” if it is new, then it cannot be improved), and renamed curfew as, “quarantine curfew;” a solution for its failure. It was, however, successful in ‘controlling’ people and diverting the attention from the current desperate economic, social, and food security issues, back to COVID.
The insufficient experience and knowledge in the biology of the virus, essential epidemiological and public health principles, and an emerging array of global scientific data by decision-makers have led to taking inappropriate actions. These were exacerbated by a deficient understanding of basic statistics, essential for critical analysis of data. The combination, together with over-confidence, resulted in taking wrong actions that might have contributed to the second wave of COVID-19 and ongoing community spread. Dissemination of erroneously low incidences and deaths, based on conducting less than 5 per cent of the needed PCR testing, mislead not only the public but also the WHO. Moreover, misguided opinions of the media and taking impulsive actions by the government did not help to control the epidemic nor to support the economy of the country.
Newscasters must understand the basics of COVID-19
It is distressing that television news and radio channels continue to report daily numbers of PCR positive persons. In the absence of standardizing these numbers, these reports are meaningless and misleading. The number of PCR positive persons must be presented as, number positive divided by the total number of tests carried in a given day or a week, as a percentage (the rate of positivity). As happened in October, in Germany and France, and later Sri Lanka, such lunacy has led to the re-introduction of a second round of damaging lockdowns in Europe and an economically harmful curfew in Sri Lanka that had little benefit in controlling COVID-19.
The mistaken interpretation of PCR positive numbers gave the impression to the administration that the incidence of COVID-19 infection is markedly increasing, thus, enforcing the second round of curfew was the only choice. COVID-19 should not be treated as an enemy. It is a contagious, lower respiratory tract viral disease. To effectively control the community spread of COVID-19 needs implementing strategic, cost-effective, multiple disease preventative measures, simultaneously. COVID-19 does not understand nor obey military actions. In the absence of the above actions, community spread will continue.
Imposing curfew is
the wrong approach
Irrespective of how strict or the duration of curfew and associated economic harm, a curfew will not have a tangible benefit on controlling the COVID epidemic in Sri Lanka. On one side it controls the movement of people hence less exposure, but on the other side, it increases the spread of the virus, as observed multiple times during the first round of curfew. The task force failed to explain the rationale for the redeployment of the curfew that further derelict the economy (led to a negative economic growth of 6.7 per cent), and destroyed the livelihoods of the majority of adults and small businesses in the country.
Some wonder, whether this is what China wants. So that the government will come behind them to obtain more loans at a high-interest (i.e., enhancing the ongoing debt trap), knowing that when Sri Lanka failed to pay back, China will increase its demand for more concessions, acquiring more national assets and property. The government does not own these assets; it is only the custodian. So, it has no rights to sell national assets nor handover such to a foreign country.
Importance of openness
and honesty are important
for the prosperity
Politicians and administrators should be sworn, “not to harm the country”; re-establish law and order; focus on development, education, health, and agriculture. And make no policy decision for short-term gain, popularity, power, or elections; protect the sovereignty of the country and Sri Lankans. These are the first golden steps that are essential for the progress towards a just and fair society and prosperity of Sri Lanka. (The writer can be reached at suniljw@hotmail.com).