Sunday Times 2
The ‘Indo-Pacific’: The concept, history and the struggle for dominance
Book facts
Repositioning South Asia in the Indo-Pacific Region: Changing Geo-Politics and Geo-Strategies
Author: Prof. Gamini Keerawella
Publisher: Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo
‘Repositioning South Asia in the Indo-Pacific Region: Changing Geo-politics and Geo-strategies’ is the latest research paper publication by Gamini Keerawella, Professor Emeritus, and Executive Director of the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS). The author, after his long and illustrious academic career of teaching and research in Modern History at the University of Peradeniya, today, spends time widely in the studies of peace, regional security, and international politics. His contribution to the progress of these fields is yet to be fully assessed and here I have to limit my task only to introduce this occasional paper to the readers with a general interest in the current affairs in global and regional politics.
The construct of the Indian Ocean region
In this highly perceptive study, Professor Keerawella focuses on the rise and the construct of ‘the Indo-Pacific region’ that integrates the Indian Ocean region with the Pacific Rim and addresses an important lacuna in existing literature, providing a small state perspective. The author explores ‘geopolitical and geostrategic underpinnings behind the construction of the Indo-Pacific Ocean/region’. He attempts to achieve this objective with a twofold methodology constituted both with a historical and a structural analysis. First, the study adopts a historical method with a survey of the historical evolution of the Indian Ocean concept; second, it has a structural political dimension since the employment of ‘polarity and distribution of power in the sub-regional system’ as major variables of the analysis help sustain the argument and the rationale. The paper consists of two main sections and a few sub themes. The first section examines the evolution of the Indian Ocean concept and the great power strategy since the 16th century onwards and the second section analyses geopolitical concept of the Indian Ocean, with special attention to South Asia and its current trajectories.
The concept of the Indian Ocean region underscores the historical pattern of great power intervention in South Asia since ancient times. The Indian Ocean became ‘a single geostrategic entity’ only during the 16th century with the establishment of Portuguese thalassocracy (seaborne empire) (p.2). The region’ gradually evolved as a significant strategic and geopolitical realm experiencing varying degree of attention of great powers from time to time. Until the 18th century the geostrategic conditions in the region was so tumultuous.
The Pax Britannica ensued the stability of power and did not ‘allow any other great power to establish bases or fortified ports in the Indian Ocean and ensuring that only Britain could control the gateways to the region’ (p.4). After the Second World War, the British dominance in the Indian Ocean declined but not completely until early 1960s. While the United States concentrated more on the Mediterranean, its ally, the UK, was present in the Indian Ocean (ibid). The US began to project its naval power into the Indian Ocean only after the Suez crisis in 1956 (p.5). By the 1970s the British had exited the Indian Ocean and Soviet naval forces entered. The Iranian Revolution in 1979 forced the Carter Administration to refocus on the Indian Ocean strategy (p.5). Likewise, the first section of the paper captures the development of geopolitical conception and practices of major powers in the Indian Ocean region until 1980s.
The post-Cold War – ‘a new historic phase’
With the post-Cold War period ‘the Indian Ocean entered a new historic phase’. The US was the only external naval superpower present in the region. Yet, the unip olarity had greatly shaped and shoved the regional politics. India’s realignment with the US and its ‘Look East Policy’ are among the most momentous outcomes changing the contours of Indian Ocean strategy, yet again. In the backdrop of this new alliance between the US and India are the rapid rise of China as an influential economic power in Asia and the United States’ ‘Pivot to Asia’ strategy (p.18). To highlight the ‘strategic convergence between the US and India’, the author refers to several important diplomatic agreements such as the ‘Agreed Minute on the Defence Relations Between the United States and India (1995), its modified version (framework for the US-India Defence Relationship 2015) and the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) of 2018. As India and the US walk together in their strategic partnership, a drastic and historic evolution has been taking place in the Indian-Ocean region after five centuries. This changing and dramatic reality with the strategic presence of the US in the region provides raison d’etre for the concept of ‘the Indo-Pacific’, with a greater probability to reshape international politics.
The Indo-Pacific is more than the Indian Ocean and is likely to overshadow it. It is more than a geopolitical concept and a historic moment of the ‘strategic architecture’. The Indo-Pacific is distinct from other regional arrangements with only an economic focus such as the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). “It encompasses both economic as well as geopolitical and geostrategic domains. The Indo-Pacific is primarily a maritime space and its focus was mainly on maritime security and cooperation” (p.9-10). The Indo-Pacific signifies the changing dimension of global power and politics. There are four major powers in the forefront of promoting the Indo-Pacific”, namely India, Australia, Japan and the US” (p. 9). Democracy, open market and a free Indian Ocean work as the ideological veil of the consensual hegemony they promise for the region.
Does Indo-Pacific besiege China?
As the US Department of Defence explains “the Indo-Pacific is the single most consequential region for America’s future” (p.9). Obviously, the US pursues the Indo-Pacific strategy as a part of its attempts to preserve its global dominance and emphasise that it has a vison of preserving the ‘rules-based international order’ or the liberal political order. Thus, the ideological underpinnings of the concept can lure the democratic powers to seriously consider it. Meanwhile, India sees through the Indo-Pacific an opportunity for deterrence vis a vis China (P.10).
Yet, it is not clear how the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as a rising power is not willing to accept the ‘rules-based approach’. While long peace in international politics after the Second World War has helped the peaceful rise of China to a greater extent, will it work towards revising the order drastically and unilaterally only for its advantage?
Offensive realists such as John Mearsheimer have long held this view but there is also a considerable and influential scholarship which does not agree with the argument of an aggressive or revisionist China. However, this this paper has not touched this aspect within its scope. Though there is a clear balancing strategy underlying the Indo-Pacific strategy, the author believes in international cooperation rather than highlighting the perennial struggle among great powers for dominance and hegemony.
In a realist sense the Indo-Pacific strategy is a part of superpower strategy to counter China, but the author of this paper implies that there is greater scope for China to continue with its Belt and Road strategy even in the backdrop of the Indo-Pacific strategy.
As a small state Sri Lanka’s own strategic direction needs to be directed with a peaceful and a practical approach. In this essay, Professor Keerawella provides a futuristic and insightful vison for South Asia’s small states which can choose to benefit from the higher growth rate in East Asia as well as the incentives offered by the superpower strategy, but they need carefully identify the ‘vulnerabilities present within the opportunities’ (p.12).