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Apart from painfully inflicting people or killing them, the deadly coronavirus is unbelievably the cause. Exacerbating it enormously is the deteriorating economic situation.

It is now 11 years, 7 months and 16 days since the security forces and the Police militarily defeated the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). It came after three different phases of the separatist war, each euphemistically called in numerical order. Every phase saw a military sophistication by the two sides in an internal war between a state actor and a non-state one. Thousands including civilians died and billions of rupees worth of property were destroyed. Exponentially different taxes were introduced to fund the war and living costs soared. Flourishing in that environment, behind a cloud of secrecy, was unbridled corruption. Millionaires, both in and out of uniform, were born.

In hindsight, over a decade after the war was won militarily, successive governments failed to deliver peace. Tamil youth who fled to western countries to avoid LTTE conscription, and made it rich over the years, resorted to a non-lethal weapon — the vote. They became a key factor during elections in the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, France, and Australia, among other nations. Politicians there needed their votes and the new citizens encashed it for their support. Over the years, they were one of the main sources of funding for Tiger guerrillas. When the United States introduced a resolution (co-sponsored by Sri Lanka) before the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC), alleging among other matters, that local troops too committed war crimes, it is these overseas groups that held periodic protests in Geneva (Switzerland), other world capitals and carried out a high-pitched propaganda drive. They still do.

For successive governments, it is again clear in hindsight, that the three phases of the separatist war, were necessitated by some salient factors. Despite intelligence warnings on some occasions, the political leaders strongly believed, the war was not winnable. Interlocutors also did their job to convince them. Nevertheless, there was hard intelligence that the guerrillas were embarking on recruit and re-arm for another round on such occasions. One report from the Army’s Directorate of Military Intelligence (DMI), seen by the Sunday Times, gave an  accurate forecast of the retraining and regrouping exercises. It was accompanied by a list of LTTE’s procurements.

In the war-torn LTTE-held Wanni years ago, I was told of how the slain LTTE leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran, once remarked to his fighting cadres that their “journey towards Eelam had plenty of bus stops.” They were called peace talks,” he said.

During Eelam War 1  they fought with assault rifles and Fifty calibre (.50) guns, for the first time in Sri Lanka. Eeelam War II  saw the introduction of Surface to Air (SAM) missiles (also for the first time) and the liberal use of mortars. During Eelam War III, ahead of the military, the LTTE first introduced an older version of the Multi-Barrel Rocket Launchers (MBRL). It also had 152 mm artillery guns.

During the first phase, if they had fought like guerrillas, robbing weapons from Police stations and troops, in the later stages they had evolved themselves to resemble a conventional army with limited naval and air capability. Yet, they wreaked havoc and emerged as one of the fiercest guerrilla groups in the world. The end came when Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka led troops to military victory. Making available all the wherewithal and support was President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who was then Defence Secretary.

Concern over Muslim extremism

And now, there are fearful concerns that history may repeat itself in a different way. Just this week, a miscreant or more, hurled a stone at a glass cage that protected the Lord Buddha’s statue in Mawanella, a Muslim town on the main highway to Kandy. That this area has been a hotbed of Muslim extremist groups and was continually active ahead of the dastardly Easter Sunday attacks in 2019 is well known. Early warnings then reached the Police. The Criminal Investigation Department (CID) was too slow to follow up investigations.

Their lethargic approach was revealed in the Sunday Times and also transpired at the Commission of Inquiry now probing the string of incidents. That a colossal intelligence and security failure led to more than 268 innocent men, women and children being killed in churches and hotels is now history. As it often happens, who indeed was responsible in allowing such heinous acts, at least for the moment, remains a mystery. Shameful enough, it came about after the security forces and the police, stronger than ever before after the military defeat of Tiger guerrillas. The Directorate of Military Intelligence (DMI) also suffered a heavy blow under the Yahapalana government. Its role was altogether ignored by their leaders. A database they had built up over time on Muslim extremists was ignored.

The Police are yet to identify who is behind the Mawanella stone throwing incident. Intelligence operatives are scouring the area, picking up threads of information. However, what is of bigger importance here is firstly why it was done. Was it not to provoke a backlash against the Muslim community? It is in this general area that Buddha statues had been previously destroyed by associates of Zahran Hashim, a top cadre of the Muslim extremist group. He died during the attack on Shangri La Hotel overlooking the Galle Face Green. Operatives are also checking whether the loss of explosives from a nearby quarry site was linked to the stoning incident.

The recent weeks have seen an increase in the number of protests by Muslim groups demanding burials of Muslims who die of coronavirus. Facilitating such protests were contradictory signals from different sections of the Government. They said the burial issue was being re-considered. Muslim businessmen donated refrigeration equipment to hold bodies until a decision was arrived at. It is amidst this, that health authorities announced that there would be no change to the Gazette notification which calls for the cremation of bodies of Covid-19 victims.

Thereafter, more than ten bodies of Muslims which lay frozen were cremated. Yet, the protests continued. That saw a response in the form of groups with placards, attended also by members of the Buddhist clergy, demanding that cremations should continue. One such protest was outside the Presidential Secretariat. No one can be faulted for holding protests which is their democratic right. However, this ‘tit for tat’ series of protests, it is no secret, leads to tension and polarisation which is not a healthy sign. It can tear to pieces the fabric of national unity which is now like a sieve and fan further divisions. There appears to be a worrying pattern emerging.

During the near three-decades of separatist war, Muslims sided with successive governments and supported their actions. The vast majority did not endorse the extremists on Easter Sunday massacres. Yet, there are areas where their social integration with other communities, like in the years past, could have been much better. They have allowed suspicion to breed. It is incumbent on their leaders to identify such issues and address them apolitically on a priority basis. Of course, one has also to be mindful that there are legitimate issues confronting them. Muslim politicians in the Government are oblivious to this. Confrontation and provocative statements, like what some ruling party Muslim leaders with no political experience or knowledge, now resort to, can only betray their brethren. It will never make them heroes.

As revealed last week, Tamil and Muslim groups teamed up together to stage protests in world capitals against the cremation of Muslims who die of Covid-19. From London, they are together directing operations to obtain sworn affidavits from next of kin of those who died about matters related to cremation. A few have already sent them. The identities of some in the health sector who opposed burials are being compiled. A fund-raising campaign has begun. Some local media lapped up a WhatsApp message where the Muslim Council of Britain said it would launch “legal action against the Sri Lankan Government’s forced cremations.” It does not, however, say where such “legal action” would be taken since it cannot do so except in Sri Lanka. Such action has already been dismissed by the country’s Supreme Court.

As previously pointed out, local health authorities contend that burials would contaminate the water table and force the spread of the coronavirus. However, this is countered by other experts who say many countries were practising burials in keeping with the guidelines issued by the World Health Organisation (WHO).

Government’s detractors, both in Sri Lanka and abroad, are seizing on these developments to step up their campaign against alleged vilification of Tamil and Muslim minorities. This is ahead of the UN Human Rights Council sessions in Geneva where the issue is slated to figure. Foreign Ministry officials are speaking of the likely visit of a UN envoy to discuss issues related to the minorities. “We are aware of the different issues before Geneva. There is a Committee (including myself) studying them,” Foreign Minister Dinesh Gunawardena told the Sunday Times. Suhada Gamlath, a former Justice Ministry Secretary has been appointed Advisor to the Foreign Affairs Ministry and assigned matters relating to human rights.

A far more important development in this regard has come from top officials of a country well-disposed and supportive towards Sri Lanka. During informal discussions on the prospects of more investments, they had pointed out their ‘serious concerns’ over the rising state of instability — a strong deterrent to foreign investment in their view. This, they have pointed out, is at a time when Sri Lanka is facing a less than friendly response from leading western nations. “They have impressed on us the immediate need for action to prevent a polarisation of communities and avert a crisis that will affect the economy,” said an intelligence source familiar with the developments. The dilemma, the source pointed out, “is the position we are placed in. That calls for decisive action.”

Another senior intelligence source, however, argued that “the Government is not unmindful of the situation. They are aware and are keeping a close tab on developments” but declined details. However, the Sunday Times learnt that the presence of a controversial Muslim politician at the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) protest outside the General Cemetery at Borella also came under close watch. His name has been linked to extremist groups.

Military’s growing role

The source declined to comment on whether the recent promotions of Lt. Gen. Shavendra Silva, Chief of Defence Staff and Commander of the Army, and Defence Secretary Kamal Gunaratne as Generals is in any way related to the new developments. Whilst General Silva has won a year’s extension of service, General (retd.) Gunaratne has been rewarded with a promotion, eleven years after the military defeat of Tiger guerrillas. Both Generals have played key roles in the final battles to defeat the Tiger guerrillas.

Just three days before being promoted, General (retired) Kamal Gunaratne was the chief guest at a commissioning ceremony at the Military Academy in Diyatalawa. Speaking to 187 officer cadets, General (retd.) Gunaratne said, “While leading your men and women to safeguard people from any threat, whether it is manmade or natural disaster, the military is also expected to engage in the nation building campaign in keeping with the President’s Vision ‘Vistas of Prosperity and Splendour’ in the drive towards a brighter and prosperous future.”

Four Sri Lankan officer cadets who underwent their basic military training at the Chinese Military Academy, two cadets trained at the Indian Military Academy, nine cadets trained at the Pakistan Military Academy and an officer cadet trained at the Royal Military Academy in Sandhurst, United Kingdom, also received their commisions.

It is not immediately clear whether the promotions of both the Army Chief and the Defence Secretary, relate to an impending enhanced role for the military in governance. However, it is well known that both serving and retired military officers have taken up considerable civilian space with appointments in the administrative service and state bodies. More such appointments are on the cards. In addition, retired military personnel are to be inducted into an outfit to take over security operations in prisons. On Friday, Army Co-ordinating Officers were assigned to the country’s 25 districts to oversee operations against the Covid-19 pandemic. Except for a Colonel, most are Majors General and Brigadiers. Until now, the task has been undertaken by District Secretaries under a Presidential Task Force. Another matter now under consideration is the positioning of a senior Army officer each to Ministries to oversee development work. They may receive the rank of Additional Secretary.

Last month, Lalith Weeratunga, Principal Presidential Advisor, was the chief guest at “Sri Lanka Army Way Forward strategy 2020-2025 at the Army Headquarters.” The veteran state sector official, Weeratunga, said that the public sector should take forward for their enhancement the capacity and confidence building because they do not know the way the Army does things.” He said people in the public sector can learn and take the cue from the Army “since we are certain of uncertainties in the world more than ever.” He said management institutions should look at the Army’s strategies and take them on board at ground level using it as a platform.

PC elections

The Government has been able to overcome at least one concern in 2021 by deciding not to conduct Provincial Council elections. Minister Mahinda Amaraweera told the Sunday Times, “We decided to postpone the PC elections until the new constitution is adopted. It will be accompanied by a new electoral system. The prevailing COVID -19 pandemic,” he said, was also a factor that contributed to the postponement. “This decision was taken unanimously at a meeting of party leaders of the ruling alliance chaired by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He too stressed that the election should be postponed in view of the current pandemic,” Amaraweera said.

The PCs were set up under the 13th Amendment to the Constitution. It was brokered by India under the 1987 Indo-Sri Lanka Agreement which came after the ethnic violence in July 1983. In the light of other priorities, it is highly unlikely that a new Constitution could be promulgated in this year. Moreover, the process itself would be time consuming. The Experts Committee headed by President’s Counsel Romesh de Silva, has already ended receiving public representations. The outline of a draft has to be formulated and consultations would have to be held with all stakeholders – a time consuming process.

TNA’s proposals for new Constitution

In a 21-page submission to the Experts Committee, the Tamil National Alliance (Ilankai Thamil Arasu Katchi, Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation and People’s Liberation Organisation of Tamil Eelam) noted that “no other issue had required the country to make commitments to India and the rest of the international community, including the UN – and all of those commitments include the pledge to grant a meaningful power sharing arrangement to the Tamil-speaking peoples of the north and east of Sri Lanka.” Here are some of the highlights of the provisions which the TNA seeks to include in the new Constitution”

“Nature of the State: (1) Sri Lanka (Ceylon) shall be recognised as a free, sovereign, independent, and united Republic comprising the institutions of the Centre and of the Regions, which shall exercise powers of governance as laid down in the Constitution.

“(2) One of the Regions shall be for the territory predominantly occupied by the Tamil speaking peoples in the North-East.

“2. Fundamental Rights: The Constitution shall include a comprehensive list of fundamental rights and freedoms, founded on human dignity and personal autonomy, and reflecting the full gamut of Sri Lanka’s international human rights obligations.

“3. Language: (1) The Constitution shall recognise Sinhala, Tamil, and English as the official languages throughout Sri Lanka, and the languages of administration in the entire island.

(2) Citizens should have a right to interact with the State, whether in person or in correspondence, in the language of their choice.

(3) The Constitution should specify that official documents, notices, or directives which communicate, imply, or impose a penalty or fine or punishment have no force or effect in law in the event they are issued in violation of language rights.

4. The Executive: 16 (1) The Constitution shall provide for a government with a ceremonial President who is accountable to Parliament, and who acts on the advice of the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister shall be the head of the cabinet of ministers.

(2) The cabinet of ministers, the state ministers, and the deputy ministers, shall be appointed by the President on the advice of the Prime Minister from amongst members of Parliament. Assignment of subjects and functions shall be within the powers of the Prime Minister, and these powers may be exercised by the Prime Minister at any time.

5. The Legislature: (1) The Constitution shall provide for a bicameral legislature with a chamber comprising members directly elected by the people, and a second chamber comprising representatives of the Regions.

(2) Legislation shall be passed upon passage of a Bill by simple majority through both chambers, except in the case of amendments to the Constitution, in which case, the Bill shall be passed with a two-thirds majority in both chambers. And in the case of amendments affecting devolution to the Regions, it shall have an additional requirement of assent by every one of the delegations from the Regions to the second chamber.

6. Sharing of Powers of Governance: (1) There shall be Regional Councils for every Region, as defined in a schedule to the Constitution.

(2) There shall be a Governor for each Region, who shall be appointed by the President on the advice of the Chief Minister of the relevant Regional Council, and such advice shall only be given with the approval of the Regional Council.

17 (3) The Governor shall, except as provided in the Constitution, act on the advice of the Chief Minister and the cabinet of ministers of the Regional Council.

(4) Regional Councils shall have legislative power over subjects specified in a schedule to the Constitution. The statutes duly enacted by a Regional Council shall prevail over all previous legislation on the same subject with respect to the relevant region.

(5) Suitable time-bound arrangements shall be made with regard to Governor’s assent to statutes to avoid delay.

(6) National policy on a devolved subject defeats the object of devolution. Therefore, all Regions must be consulted and where all Regions agree, national policy must be confined to framework legislation within which Regions can exercise fully legislative and executive power pertaining to the devolved subject. Framework legislation shall not curtail devolved power.

(7) The Central Legislature may make laws with respect to subjects devolved to the Regional Councils, provided all Regional Councils vote to approve the said Bill. Where a Regional Council does not so approve, the Act, if passed, shall not have force or effect within the said Region.

(8) Devolved power cannot be overridden or taken back without the consent of the Region concerned. In the case of Constitutional amendments affecting devolution, it should have the approval of every regional delegation from the Regions in addition to two third majority votes in both Houses.

(9) Assignment of subjects and functions shall be based on the principle of maximum possible devolution. All subjects other than such subjects as must necessarily be with the Central Government, such as national security, national defence, armed forces, foreign affairs, and national economic affairs, must be devolved.

(10) Some of the important subjects and functions to be devolved shall include (but not be limited to): 18 a. land; b. law and order; c. education including tertiary education; d. health; e. housing and construction; f. agriculture and agrarian services; g. irrigation; h. fisheries; i. animal husbandry and livestock development; j. resettlement and rehabilitation; k. local government; l. regional public service; m. regional police service; n. religious and cultural affairs; o. all other socioeconomic and cultural matters; p. cooperatives and cooperative banks; q. industries; and (r). taxation, central grants, international and domestic loans and grants, and foreign direct investment.

(11) All appointments to the regional public service and regional police service, other than the Chief Secretary and other secretaries to regional ministries, shall be made by the Regional Public Service Commission and the Regional Police Commission, as the case may be, which shall be answerable and responsible to the Chief Minister and to the cabinet of ministers of the relevant Region.

(12) The Chief Secretary shall be appointed by the President with the concurrence of the Chief Minister of the Region and shall be removable by the President on the advice of the Chief Minister. Secretaries to regional ministries shall be appointed by the Governor on the recommendation of the Chief Minister and the cabinet of ministers of the relevant Region and shall be removable on their advice.

19 (13) There shall be adequate provision made in the Constitution for the protection of the minority communities in every Region.

7. The Judiciary: (1) The Constitution shall provide for a Constitutional Court, comprising members appointed by the Constitutional Council, to hear and determine the constitutionality of legislation made by the Central Legislature and statutes made by Regional Councils. Such power may be exercised prior to the enactment of such law or statute, or after enactment, whether it arises in the course of legal proceedings or by the direct institution of proceedings.

(2) In respect of matters relating to the interpretation of the Constitution, the decisions of the Constitutional Court shall be final.

(3) Jurisdiction with respect to fundamental rights applications shall be exercised by the Provincial High Courts.

8. Public Security: (1) The Constitution shall provide that the declaration of a state of emergency shall be made by the President, on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the Governor of the Region with the concurrence of the Chief Minister of Region. Such a state of emergency shall only be declared when there are reasonable grounds to apprehend the existence of a clear and present danger to public security, preservation of public order (including preservation of public order consequent to natural disasters and epidemics) or the maintenance of supplies and services essential to the life of the community in the country or Region. A state of emergency can be declared only with respect to the territory where such a clear and present danger prevails.

20 (2) The declaration of emergency shall state the basis on which such a state of emergency was declared and shall be limited in time. (3) The Declaration of Emergency shall be subject to parliamentary approval or the relevant Regional Council’s approval, as the case may be, and be subject to judicial review by the Constitutional Court. If such approval is not granted, or where the Constitutional Court so holds, such Declaration of Emergency shall stand rescinded.

9. Land: (1) Land shall be a devolved subject. All state land used by the Central Government for a subject in the Central List shall be continued to be used by the Central Government. Rights acquired by citizens in state land shall be preserved. All other state land shall vest in the Region concerned and can be used by the Region in terms of its devolved powers over land.

(2) Alienation of state land shall be done on the basis of the principles enunciated in the Bandaranaike-Chelvanayakam Pact and Senanayake-Chelvanayakam Pact.

(3) Regions shall have powers of land acquisition and requisition. Law and order shall be a devolved subject. There shall be a National Police Force, and Regional Police Forces for each Region. Offences that are reserved to be dealt with by the National Police shall be listed in a schedule to the Constitution. All other offences shall be within the purview of the Regional Police.

SJB’s plans for 2021

As reported in the Sunday Times (Political Commentary) of December 20, the conduct of PC polls formed the subject of discussion at the weekly cabinet meeting held on December 14. Three ministers proposed that it be delayed and it was then decided to seek the view of leaders of the ruling alliance partners.

Ranjith Madduma Bandara, General Secretary of the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), the largest opposition in Parliament, had a different take on the postponement. “All this is because they have lost their popularity. They know for sure that they cannot win the same way as they did at the presidential election,” he told the Sunday Times.

He said that the SJB had obtained an adjournment debate in Parliament on Thursday to discuss “the current situation in the country.” The Covid-19 pandemic is spreading and the economy is fast deteriorating. He said that his party’s priorities in 2021 would be to strengthen trade unions affiliated to it and increase membership of women’s organisations. From January 15, he said, SJB organisers would be appointed to various electorates.

Madduma Bandara confirmed that former Minister Champika Ranawaka, who has quit the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), was being offered a position in the SJB. “We are still discussing and have not reached a final decision on the title,” he said. Ranawaka has already formed what he calls “an apolitical” organisation called Brigade 43. It is a group of professionals to work towards the “development of the country,” he said. It was in 1943, he said, that free education was introduced in Sri Lanka.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) led National People’s Front (NPF), welcomed the postponement of PC polls. He told the Sunday Times, “This is not the time for PC polls when the country is facing a fast-spreading Covid-19 pandemic.” Added his colleague and spokesperson Vijitha Herath: “People are concerned about unemployment, travel restrictions, the worsening economy and the skyrocketing cost of living due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Therefore, they are not concerned of the political situation. People only want COVID-19 eradicated before PC elections.”

A New Year has arrived but for the United National Party (UNP), there is, however, no significant change. Party leader Ranil Wickremesinghe is likely to name Deputy Leader Ruwan Wijewardene to the vacant bonus seat in Parliament. However, there are other contenders, too. One who is making a bid for the position is former minister Ravi Karunanayake. A final decision is to be made before January 5 when Parliament meets.

In more than one sense, the challenges for the ruling alliance will be a mixed bag of issues, more difficult than the past year. Thus, a success or failure, both in Sri Lanka and abroad, hinges on these issues.