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The choice between a complete shutdown of the country for an extended period to contain the spread of COVID or not to do so to keep the economy functioning is a hard choice.

People must work to live but people must live to work. This is the dilemma countries all over the world are faced with, but the fragile state of our economy has made that choice extremely difficult.

Developed and poor countries

Developed countries can afford to shut down their economies to an extent and ensure the livelihoods of their people. Not so poor countries that do not have the capacity to provide income support for livelihoods nor forego production of goods and services.

Sri Lanka’s economy

The perilous state of the Sri Lankan economy makes such a lockdown a danger to the livelihoods of people and the stability of the economy. The fragile state of the country’s foreign currency reserves at around US$ three billion makes it expedient to ensure the production of the country’s exports.

Critical issue

The critical issue is that the lockdown to contain COVID should not jeopardise vital economic activities such as export production. Hence a lockdown while “essential economic activities” were permitted. These included export manufactures and suppliers of essential items such as food, medicines and services such as banking.

Dilemma

The Government was in a dilemma as to whether the countrywide lockdown that ended on August 30 should be extended to contain the surging spread of the COVID pandemic or relax it to allow industry and commerce to function. It was a difficult decision to take owing to the perilous state of the economy, especially the dangerously low level of external finances.

Ensuring export manufacturing is a Government priority. As a shutdown could jeopardise export earnings and cripple the already weak external finances, export industries were deemed essential services.

Extension of lockdown

Consequently, the extension of the countrywide lockdown until September 6 was a hesitant decision. There was no alternative as the daily count of infections was growing exponentially and the daily death toll had crossed 200. The medical fraternity and health professions insisted that a lockdown was imperative.

Lockdown

The earlier lockdown till August 30 was thrust upon the Government by the public. Traders and trade unions effectively implemented a partial shutdown. The Government was compelled to follow. The country emerged on August 30 after this ten-day lockdown that was faulty. Conspicuous exceptions, ineffective implementation and irresponsible social behaviour weakened its efficiency. Yet, hopefully, it has checked the fast spreading COVID and not retarded the economy too adversely. Time will tell.

Extended lockdown

The continuation of the lockdown on medical advice till September 6 was a step in the right direction.   For once scientific and rational thinking   appear to have prevailed over superstition, short-sightedness and political motives. However, it is too early to gauge the impact of the on-going lockdown on the spread of the pandemic and the fatality rate.

What we are currently reaping is what we sowed collectively before the beginning of the lockdown. Whether we have behaved responsibly while the country was closed this week will be known when the infection and fatality figures are announced in the coming weeks.

Extended

At the time of writing, indications are that the lockdown would be extended beyond September 6. The salient question is whether the recent lockdowns were effectively implemented and whether people responded responsibly; unfortunately, no.

The costly preventive measures currently in place to curb the runaway transmission of the virus will yield the desired results only if the lockdown is strictly observed and enforced. There is no such strict observation by society or a stringent enforcement of the lockdown.

Exceptions

The lack of understanding that the virus could be contained only by social distancing, a lack of social responsibility and exemptions from the lockdown reduced the effectiveness of the lockdowns. The exemptions from the lockdowns were a severe threat to the spreading of COVID. For instance, the holding of the traditional Kandy Esala Perahera was a breach of the lockdown regulations.

Although crowds did not line the streets of Kandy, the large number of people who participated in it as drummers, dancers and other artistes, performed without any protective equipped till the last two days of the Perahera.  Consequently, and as to be expected, more than 500 performers and Police officers were reported to have contracted COVID even before the end of the Perahera. Such a new cluster would surely cause a community spread of COVID in the Kandy district.

Summing up

Developed countries can afford to shut down their economies to an extent and ensure the livelihoods of their people. Not so poor countries that do not have the capacity to provide income support for livelihoods. Export-import dependent Sri Lanka starved of foreign currency reserves is compelled to keep export manufactures at full capacity at the risk of large number of lives.

The decision making on the country’s COVID prevention measures are motivated by the perilous state of the economy. The shutting down of the country is seen as a serious threat to the economy, especially export manufactures. Therefore, every effort was made to keep the wheels of export industry and commerce functioning at full capacity. This was especially so in respect of the apparel industry that displayed resilience amidst COVID.

The crux of the issue is the trade-off between the containment of COVID and the impact of a lockdown on the economy. The dilemma is whether there should be a more stringent country-wide lockdown to contain the virus or take only partial measures so that the economy could function.

Medical advice is that the spreading of the virus and its variants has reached proportions when a prolonged lockdown is essential to prevent a disaster. International experts and the World Health Organisation (WHO) too recommended such a course of action.

All things considered, should the Government shut the country for a further extended period after tomorrow to contain the spreading of COVID or impose limited restrictions to enable the economy to function at a near normal level to ensure the production of goods and services?

Conclusion

The mismanagement of the country over a long period has resulted in the economy’s fragile and unstable state. The inability to have taken timely correct decisions to save the country from the impending human tragedy is to a good extent owing to the weakness of the economy.

The further weakening of the economy by inappropriate policies on agriculture, trade, monetary and fiscal matters has aggravated the economic crisis.

There is no doubt that the containment of COVID and the strengthening of the economy require international assistance. From whom can we expect such assistance?