Columns

• President and PM make aggressive speeches and give lofty promises at rally held on Basil’s initiative
• GL’s New Delhi visit draws India closer to Sri Lanka; Jaishankar promises to take Sri Lanka’s case at meeting of Quad countries
• India’s statement refers to greater devolution of power; Lanka remains silent
• Divisions widen within main opposition alliance; Premadasa and Fonseka on collision course
• If Lanka repays sovereign bonds, it will have money only for one month of imports – the worst situation since independence

The SLPP's Anuradhapura meeting indicates that elections are in the pipeline

One is related to the visit to India by Foreign Minister G.L. Peiris and the events that unfolded. Both India and Sri Lanka issued official statements after the three-day event, but a meaningful lot seems to have been left unsaid in them. Also misleading has been statements from the Sri Lanka High Commission in New Delhi, branding every project agreed upon or talked about as “strategic.”

At the SLPP rally in Anuradhapura on Wednesday, Peiris also announced that the Indian External Affairs Minister Subramanyam Jaishanker had assured him, during his visit to New Delhi, that he would plead Sri Lanka’s case for more help at a meeting of Foreign Ministers of Quad countries in Australia. The grouping comprises the United States, India, Australia, and Japan. That will make Sri Lanka indebted to more countries is one aspect. More importantly, the foursome is effectively side-lining China, a close ally of the Rajapaksas.

Domestically, Government leaders have turned increasingly aggressive against opposition political parties, seizing the initiative of their internal power struggles. The launch of that assault at the rally in the sacred city was to obviate mounting criticism on the Government for inaction and bungling. The SLPP’s onslaught has assumed the character of an election campaign. The focus appears to be on an early local government election to help consolidate its position. Even a parliamentary election is within the SLPP’s sights. However, in terms of the Constitution, Parliament can be dissolved by the President only after February next year. Nevertheless, there is provision for the House to dissolve itself by adopting a resolution. Plans are afoot to conduct one meeting in every district and thus try to seize the momentum in the SLPP’s favour.

Even before the rally, ruling parliamentarians have created an atmosphere of increasing acrimony towards their opponents. Obscene language is used increasingly against their rivals in Parliament only to be expunged from the Hansard, the official record. Badulla District parliamentarian Tissa Kuttiarachchi exhorted in the House that workers protesting outside the Health Ministry should be attacked with poles. On Thursday, the Attorney General’s Department won an enjoining order to halt the strike. When that did not materialise, President Rajapaksa on Friday declared the health sector an essential service. Just weeks earlier, rotten eggs were thrown at Anura Kumara Dissanayake when he arrived at a National People’s Power (NPP) meeting in Gampaha. He accused the wealthy, powerful boss of a security organisation of being responsible and lamented that Police investigations were not moving even at a snail’s pace. The SLPP’s main target was the NPP led by Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) leader Dissanayake, which is turning popular because it is least affected by internecine rivalries.

The Foreign Ministry has launched a “name and shame” campaign against those expressing dissenting views. A case in point is that of attorney-at-law Ambika Satkunanathan who testified before a sub-Committee of the European Parliament. She is head of the Neelam Tiruchelvam Trust. She was branded an LTTE acolyte. Tiruchelvam was assassinated by Tiger guerrillas.

FOREIGN MINISTER PEIRIS’
VISIT TO NEW DELHI

Peiris seized the opportunity of an invitation extended to him by his Indian counterpart, Subramanyam Jaishankar, to visit New Delhi when he assumed office in August 2021. Ahead of his departure last Sunday, the Sri Lanka High Commission in New Delhi sought a meeting for him with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It, however, did not materialise.

The purpose was to hand over to him, a letter from President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. It was an invitation to visit Colombo to take part in the BIMSTEC (The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral, Technical and Economic Co-operation) summit on March 30. This is a regional organisation of seven states — Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and Thailand.

The Sunday Times learns that Premier Modi will participate in the summit. Present plans are for him to first arrive in Jaffna to open a Tamil Cultural Centre and later fly from there to Colombo. Last week, both India and Sri Lanka also discussed New Delhi’s planned investment in the Kankesanthurai Port and the Palaly Airport among others. The broadening of New Delhi-Colombo relations is the result of a dialogue Sri Lanka’s High Commissioner Milinda Moragoda had initiated with India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. Held in high esteem by Premier Modi, Doval is widely credited with winning over both Nepal and Maldives under India’s axis.

Premier Modi’s invitation and another for External Affairs Minister Jaishankar, it is learnt, were handed over to the latter. The Indian External Affairs Minister was also forced to cancel a dinner in Peiris’ honour since a state of mourning had been declared on account of the death of legendary singer Lata Mangeshkar, popularly described as the ‘Nightingale of India.’ Her songs have touched the hearts of millions of Sri Lankans too.

During talks with External Affairs Minister Jaishankar, Foreign Minister Peiris thanked the government of India for the financial and other assistance provided in recent months. He also discussed the BIMSTEC summit and met National Security Advisor Doval and External Affairs Ministry Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla.

India’s recent economic assistance to Sri Lanka was raised in the Rajya Sabha this week by member A. Vijayakumar. He asked: Will the Minister of External Affairs be pleased to state: (a) whether any aid is to be provided by Government to Sri Lanka to come out of present financial crisis; (b) if so, the details thereof; (c) whether any surety and reciprocal benefits may be considered for giving a loan to Sri Lanka; and (d) if so, the details thereof?

The reply came from V. Muraleedharan, Minister of State in the Ministry of External Affairs. He said, “(a) to (d): Under its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy, Government is committed to developing friendly and mutually beneficial relations with all its neighbours. In line with this, India continues to support Sri Lanka in all possible ways to overcome the economic and other challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. In January 2022, India extended a US$ 400 million currency swap to Sri Lanka under the SAARC Framework and agreed to deferral of Asian Clearing Union (A.C.U.) settlement of US$ 515.2 million by two months. In addition, a new Line of Credit of US$ 500 million was extended to Sri Lanka by the Government for importing fuel from India. As close friends and maritime neighbours, both India and Sri Lanka stand to gain from loser economic interlinkages. Both nations remain in close touch for mutually beneficial bilateral cooperation for shared progress and prosperity.” As is clear from the reply, there was no reference to any surety or reciprocal benefits as sought by the member.

Now, to an important aspect of the two official statements from India and Sri Lanka: The Indian External Affairs Ministry statement declared: “Recalling the positive impact of India’s developmental and rehabilitation support, EAM emphasised that Sri Lanka’s interests are best served by ensuring equality, justice, peace and respect for the Tamil people within a United Sri Lanka. Devolution of power is an important aspect of this process.”

The statement from the Sri Lanka Foreign Ministry, however, was silent and made no reference to the subject.

There seem to be at least two important aspects to this. One is that the Indian Ministry of External Affairs has not referred to the 13th Amendment but emphasised on the need for “devolution of power.” As reported in these columns last week, Tamil political parties handed in a memorandum to India. It is known this was originally intended to ensure the full implementation of 13A where there is broad consensus on all sides. However, post Ilankai Thamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) or the TNA intervention the memorandum included references to federal features and structures creating the belief earlier that it would place the Government of India in a dilemma. India appears to have overcome this situation by emphasising on the devolution of power by “ensuring equality, justice, peace and respect for the Tamil people within a United Sri Lanka.” In other words, India has left space for the Tamil parties and the Government of Sri Lanka to explore further expansion or improvement.

On the other hand, since the end of the separatist war in May 2009, all formal statements from India had made references to 13A. However, absence of one this time, one could argue, may indicate the emergence of a devolution package sans some provisions of 13A though this seems highly unlikely. This is pointed out particularly in the context of the makers of a new constitution looking at rationalizing the structure of Provincial Councils and reducing its numbers, to five. A Sri Lankan diplomat in New Delhi has also been pointing out that 13A and related initiatives were worked out when the Congress Party was in power. In any case, the finalization of a devolution package entails an accord being reached between the Government of Sri Lanka and the Tamil parties. This week’s developments have paved the way for a fresh dialogue though how soon is not clear.

Why then did Foreign Minister Peiris ignore this aspect altogether in the official statement from Sri Lanka’s Foreign Ministry? As far back as May 17, 2011, he issued a joint statement together with the Indian External Affairs Ministry on completion of his visit to New Delhi from May 15 to 17, 2011. Peiris was quoted as having assured a “devolution package built upon the 13th Amendment, would contribute towards creating the necessary conditions for such reconciliation….” There have been many other similar statements from the same Foreign Minister at various other times in the past. Other Sri Lankan leaders, including Mahinda Rajapaksa when he was President, too have expressed similar sentiments. They have also been acknowledged by Indian leaders.

BASIL RAJAPAKSA’S
CAMPAIGN STRATEGY

The move to conduct a string of district-wise meetings to win public momentum is the brainchild of Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa. He has been an excellent strategist and his planning led to the SLPP emerging as a major political party overnight. Yet, the rally at Anuradhapura underscored many a difference. It turned out to be a solely SLPP affair with no constituent parties of the coalition being invited to take part. The message was clear — the SLPP would want to go it alone at a future election. That move is not surprising. A formidable faction of the partner leaders is opposed to Basil Rajapaksa, who on the other hand also has a SLPP group backing him. Just this week, Pivithuru Hela Urumaya leader Udaya Gammanpila, a partner leader, was heckled for his public remarks on power cuts by parliamentarians Tissa Kuttiarachchi and Rohita Abeygunwardena among others at the government parliamentary group meeting.

If organising larger crowd turnouts has been a Basil Rajapaksa forte, there was a difference at Anuradhapura. There was no bon hommie or geniality among the crowd. There was no spontaneous cheering or enthusiasm. It was more a case of a dull group of spectators. Most wore face masks, but a few did not. They were clustered together, and no distance was maintained. At one point, when Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa was on his feet, a group defiantly demanded “give us fertiliser.” Premier Rajapakasa, the seasoned politician that he is, deftly parried the issue and reminded that he too had a farmer background and could appreciate their lament.

His opening remarks underscore the theme of the Anuradhapura rally. He said, “Today we are trying to start a fresh journey. In 2005, we started the presidential campaign from Anuradhapura. After winning the war, we started our second presidential campaign at Anuradhapura. Even President Gotabaya Rajapaksa started his presidential campaign at Anuradhapura. After obtaining a great victory at the presidential election Gotabaya Rajapaksa was sworn in as the president at the Ruwanweli Maha Seya in Anuradhapura.

“We built the Ranaviru Seya at Anuradhapura to honour the patriotic heroes from the four directions who gave up their lives by taking part in the war. Every battle we won was started at Anuradhapura. Today we are starting a new journey at Anuradhapura. We know that this new journey is much needed for this country at this moment. You all know that more than two years we have clashed with the Covid–19 Pandemic. During this period, we have focused on saving the people from it….”

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was unusually aggressive in his speech. He pointed out that “My first public meeting was at this same place. I promised you that I would give you fertiliser for free and give a guaranteed price for paddy. I want to remind you that it was my first task. I tell you that with or without fertiliser that we would increase farmers’ income by one hundred percent. We gave you the needed fertiliser, we gave the guaranteed price I promised you. You can sell your paddy for Rs 95………..”

According to SLPP General Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam the party is formulating a new work plan which encompasses a larger role for the youth organisations. “We also plan to complete appointments of Women’s Bala Mandala countrywide within the next few weeks. He said his party would soon make a public announcement.”

IN FIGHTING IN THE
OPPOSITION RANKS

There is little doubt that a major contributory cause to the Government taking the battle to the doorstep of the opposition is due to the divisions within it. To a lesser extent it was also a warning to the partner parties that the SLPP could manage on its own. Take for example the main opposition Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB). Its leader, Sajith Premadasa, just months after the formation of the alliance, declared that he would appoint Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka, who led troops to victory against Tiger guerrillas during the separatist war, as his future Minister of Defence. The question now is whether he still stands by the pledge.

Relations between the duo have soured. Addressing his party’s district convention in Badulla, Fonseka said, “There is no point in taking votes by telling what we did in the past. This country would not develop because we took government power. On the other hand, there are economic experts in the government; there are economic experts on our side too. Yet, this country has not developed. This is due to corruption and misuse. If our party is to change, we must understand this and work, keeping that in our minds. If the leader is present here, I would tell this in the same manner. “You should not hereafter utter the name Ranasinghe Premadasa. There is no point mentioning his name because he did not do enough. That is why we are here.”

The remarks angered Premadasa. Addressing a public meeting in Dambulla, Premadasa hit back. He said, “Now there are individuals, groups, ones who identify themselves as big shots are with great pleasure getting their suits tailored to become President. I would like to ask whether they have the capability to develop the country? Whether they have the capability to serve the people? Whether they can empower people? I am calling those persons who tailor suits to compete with Sajith Premadasa to do so by working for the people. Compete with me by serving the people.

“When I carried out ‘Husma’ programme, when I carried out ‘Sakwala’ programme, these people were having media discussions and were making the usual bragging statements by being trapped within the traditional system. They should act on their words other than making bragging statements. I will act on my word. I am ready to face that competition.

“I tell those big shots who tailor suits that they cannot compete with Premadasa’s son when it comes to development. These people are circulating rumours that Sajith Premadasa only knows to hand over things to people. They don’t like to see Sajith Premadasa working without positions. Sajith Premadasa without being President, Prime Minister, or any other portfolio and without any other positions is working for the people. They would like to see me only limiting myself for interviews and press briefings or telling lies to the people through social media. They like to see me doing false or pacha deshapalanaya. They allege that Opposition Leader has refrained from using the names of ruling party personalities in his speeches.  However, I must tell them that I don’t have false politics. The only politics that I have is not political rule, but service to the people. I again challenge the ones who tailor suit to compete with me and serve people and bring about development.”

It is no secret that there is discontent within the SJB over what is being described as a “lukewarm” approach towards the Government. In this backdrop, sections in the party say Fonseka is asserting himself and may want to be a contender for the SJB leadership. Since entering politics, to his credit, Fonseka has remained politically astute and his choice of words in speeches has been well weighted. Even if he is not a contender for the leadership, the question now remains whether Premadasa would still want to make him Defence Minister, should he to form a government. The defence portfolio, as is well known is only conferred on the most trusted. Does Premadasa now feel that Fonseka has broken that trust? A lack of vibrancy by the SJB during the current unprecedented economic and financial crisis has been the subject of debate. There are also fears among partner parties of the SJB over Premadasa’s resolve to go it alone. In this regard, moves have been afoot by SLPP leaders to woo at least one of them.

That is the fate of the main opposition SJB, which emerged as the stronger offshoot of the United National Party (UNP). As for the UNP itself, its defeat at the August 2020 parliamentary elections has left it emaciated. Patali Champika Ranawaka, a key player in the SJB has since moved out to form his own 43 Brigade. The name coincides with the introduction of free education in 1943. The only noteworthy role has been the contributions made by the UNP leader and former Prime Minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, in Parliament. The National People’s Power, led by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna(JVP) has remained unscathed other than the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) which focuses entirely on the north and east. Nevertheless, it is an uphill task for the SLPP to win hearts and minds. A vote at the poll would be different from the task of mustering crowds. Having said that, the SLPP still finds itself in an envious position for its electoral role would be consolidated by the inadequacies of the main opposition.

SJB General Secretary Ranjit Madduma Bandara said yesterday, “We will take to the streets and launch a protest campaign” over the failures of the Government. He said the party has already sought recourse to courts over a move to introduce a Special Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill. It empowers accumulated taxes to be credited to another account (instead of the Consolidated Fund) without control or audit of Parliament. “We believe this is unconstitutional,” he added.

BANGLADESH EXTENDS
REPAYMENT PERIOD

The forex-rich Bangladesh government extended the credit facility amounting to $200 million under a currency swap deal with Sri Lanka, to be delivered in three tranches as follows: 50 million US dollars on August 19, 100 million dollars on August 30, and the final 50 million dollars on September 21. The Bangladesh Bank (BB) has extended validity of the 200 million US dollar credit facility it extended to Sri Lanka by three months after the expiry of its first three-month tenure. This USD 200m is due for repayment in April 2022.

Then there is this sovereign bond that matured as part of international sovereign bond payments of USD 1.5 billion due this year. On January 18, Sri Lanka paid USD 500 million and the next bond payment amounting to USD one billion is due in July this year (in 4.5 months’ time).

This is whilst both ruling party and opposition representatives met at the Water’s Edge for a closed-door meeting. Initiating the move, as one time Chairman of the Committee on Public Finance in Parliament, was TNA’s Abraham Sumanthiran.

The participants included: UNP leader Ranil Wickremasinghe, TNA leader and former Opposition Leader R Sampanthan, former Speaker and National Movement for Social Justice (NMSJ) convenor Karu Jayasuriya, Sri Lanka Muslim Congress leader Rauff Hakeem, Tamil Progressive Alliance leader Mano Ganeshan, Sri Lanka Makkal Congress leader Rishad Bathiudeen, Lanka Sama Samaja Party leader Prof Tissa Vitharana, and Parliamentary Committee on Public Accounts (COPA) Chairman, Prof Charitha Herath, Committee on Public Enterprise Chairman Anura PriyadaarshanaYapa, Kabir Hashim, Eran Wickremaratne, Dr Harsha de Silva, Dr Harini Amarasuriya (National List MP representing National People’s Power party, which is a coalition partner of the JVP) and Shanakiyan Rasamanickam along with various other specialists in economics and financial management.

A statement issued after the initial meeting of this group earlier said “the crisis” is of a proportion that is historically unprecedented for many reasons. It pointed out that the country’s ratings had fallen to the level of being blacklisted in international credit markets. Since April 2020, Sri Lanka has been locked out of borrowing using International Sovereign Bonds (ISBs). Repaying US dollar debt in this context means that the usable foreign reserves are down to below one month of imports – the lowest on record since independence.Other factors:

• The ratio of interest on debt to government revenue was above 70% in 2020, a historical high for Sri Lanka, and amongst the highest in the world.
• The ratio of public debt compared to the value of Sri Lanka’s domestic production (GDP) is also the highest on record, at 120%. It skyrocketed, by almost 25 percentage points, in the last two years.

It noted that “each of these situations by itself would spell a serious economic challenge. Occurring simultaneously, they threaten our future in both the short term and long term.” The meeting by the group last Thursday recommended that in such a context, “the best way forward for Sri Lanka is to immediately initiate a multi-step process towards an orderly negotiated postponement and restructure of repayment of its sovereign debt. They were of the view that “Sri Lanka can then course correct a path of sustainable economic growth and debt management while also ensuring access to essential needs and goods for the Sri Lankan economy and its people. This may reduce the pain and hardship that is currently experienced due to the shortage of foreign currency. In any path forward, it is essential that the Government takes measures to consider the difficulties of the poorest and the most vulnerable people in the country and provide them with adequate social security, protection, and relief.”

UN HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL

The United Nations Human Rights High Commissioner Michele Bachelet is due to forward her report tomorrow (Monday) for Sri Lankan Government’s review and comments. The UNHRC sessions are due to begin on February 28 and the formal submission of the report and interactive dialogue will take place in the afternoon of March 3.Though there will be no vote this time, the report, diplomatic sources say, is a prelude to another resolution on Sri Lanka in September, this year.

To say the least, Sri Lanka faces a string of unprecedented challenges in the weeks and months to come.

JR pushed for Indo-Lanka federation J.R. Jayewardene J.R. Jayewardene, the chief architect of the presidential system of governance in Sri Lanka, once favoured an Indo-Lanka Federation with a status equivalent to Indian provinces. Such a political union, he said, “is bound to be advantageous to us, provided certain essential conditions are fulfilled.” The most important, he said, were: The people of Sri Lanka must have the unfettered right to determine the internal political structure of their country. The official language must be Sinhala Parliament of Sri Lanka must have the right to determine the composition of Lanka’s population India and Lanka must have the right to determine the composition of Lanka’s population. India and Lanka must be one unit for the purpose of defence. In the Federal Legislature, Lanka must be accorded a status equivalent to the status of Indian provinces. Jayewardene’s views are contained in a signed article by him. It is part of the Documents of the Ceylon National Congress and Nationalist Politics in Ceylon (1929–1950), a certified copy of which was obtained from the Government Archives. Jayewardene at that time closely associated with Indian leaders often attending their conventions and interacting with their leaders. Jayewardene notes: “It is not possible for us ever to be again the Lanka of old. We can only dream of the days of Dutugemunu and Parakramabahu and of the deeds of valour of the Sinhalese heroes against the invaders from India.  I visualise a greater future for Lanka and its people.  Sinhalese or Tamil they may be by race, yet citizens of a great and powerful India.  Protected beneath the shade of this great federation, we can give to India and through her to the world, the teaching which we have preserved ever since our race came to these shores, the teaching of the Buddha.  Influencing India and her peoples, we also influence the larger world outside, for a Free India can and will change the path of nations.  Can we, so close to her, so akin to her, stand aloof?” The article begins by saying: “India ever calls to us, children of Lanka, for have we not been friends for over two thousand years.  That friendship has moulded our culture, our language, and our customs.  Often, it is true, there has been conflict between some of the races of India and us, yet, to Buddhist Lanka, India remains the Holy Land. Whenever I find an opportunity to do so, I travel across the narrow waters that separate my country from her, and journey to those places which are sanctified by the touch of Gautama the Buddha.  It is natural that India should draw us to her, for is she not the cradle of our race? “The subjection of both India and Lanka to a foreign power created a barrier between us.  We forget that from the time of Vijaya, Sinhalese kings and nobles sought their brides in India; we forget that our princesses too, such as the famous Princess of Chitoor, were sought for by Indian princes.  The fast-moving events of today made rid us of that subjection and removed the barrier.  India and Lanka may be free tomorrow, to do as they please.  Do we know them whither we are bound? “The older generation who believe in self-government and dominion status, in the indestructibility of empires, do not know exactly what to do were India to be free tomorrow and we are left to fend for ourselves.  No one wishes to continue the Donoughmore constitution and the crown colony status which it protects.  Dominion status within the British Commonwealth of Nations would hardly be possible were India to secede from such a commonwealth.   A free Lanka, independent of all other nations of the world, is difficult to conceive of.  An Indo-Lanka federation may have to be discussed, may even have to be planned for and may be useful for us to achieve.”