Sunday Times 2
Making of India’s Ocean or Indian Pond
Do today’s Indian geopolitical strategists continue to dream the dream of their predecessors around days of Indian independence: Converting the Indian Ocean into India’s Ocean? The inclination seems to survive to a lesser degree and today, according to some reports, even an ‘Indian Pond’ will do.
The British had treated this ocean which washed the shores of the possessions of their empire on the coasts of the Arabian, African, Asian continents and deep down to Australia as a British lake. Indian scholars, diplomats and even statesmen in and around days of Indian Independence were thinking aloud of replacing the British — particularly in the seas around South Asia — and making it an Indian lake.
The end of the Cold War, emergence of China as a regional and world power and shifting of political and economic alliances have resulted in the power play in the Indian Ocean taking the form of different political games today.
By the end of the Cold War, the British had completely withdrawn from the Indian Ocean with America replacing it and taking the role of the dominant western power while the Soviet Union entered the Indian Ocean as the second superpower.
The then Indian Prime Minister, Indira Gandhi, as the leader of the Non Aligned Movement at that time, rallied smaller littoral and hinterland countries demanding that the Indian Ocean be free of superpower confrontations and for its demilitarisation.
Sri Lankan leader Sirima Bandaranaike most probably at the behest of Indian Premier Indira Gandhi moved a resolution at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) for the Declaration of the Indian Ocean as a Zone of Peace. It involved the setting up, under UN auspices, steps to implement the proposal. No manoeuvres by warships of any state were to be permitted.
Speaking at the 26th session of the UNGA, she explained that this proposed Indian Ocean Zone of Peace (IOPZ) was exclusively for peaceful purposes under an appropriate regulatory system and that the regulatory system will be under effective international control.
The IOPZ proposed by the Sri Lankan leader failed to materialise and fell through after the Cold War ended and the collapse of Soviet Union but it is relevant in today’s context of big power rivalry in the Indian Ocean, particularly with regard to the role played by India then and now.
India in the Cold War years, though it wore the garb of Non Alignment, was heavily tilted towards the Soviet Union, the latter being its main supplier of armaments and went along with the Soviet Union in almost every major issue that came before the UN and was distinctly anti-American.
In the 21st Century India’s Indian Ocean policy — when compared with the days of the Cold War when the USSR stood firm — seems to have made an imperceptible Yogic somersault. While Non Alignment with super powers in military affairs such as military exercises was an article of faith in the earlier era, today India is a key player in the quadrilateral alliance (Quad) against China and is considered to be the Asian bulwark against China’s growing economic and military power.
Being a member of the ‘Quad’, it appears to have been granted proxy power over the South Asian nations. SAARC, the regional association of South Asian countries for economic development, was stalled from the very begining, India the giant in the centre of the seven dwarfs being a prime cause.
Sri Lanka knows it better than other member nations.
Now, while SAARC appears to be gasping for oxygen while another organisation BIMSTEC (the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) is posed off as an alternative to SAARC, though not very much of it has been heard of — its contributions to development and economic cooperation of member countries or the region since it was established in 1997. The paralysis of SAARC and BIMSTEC as the alternative, results in one significant geopolitical change for the South Asian region: elimination of Pakistan and with it any influence of China which is closely associated with Pakistan.
It will be worthwhile to note how BIMSTEC will help Sri Lanka in its worst ever economic crisis.
Last week we read a report: Exploring the relevance, limitations and future challenges of the ‘Colombo Security Conclave’(CSC) as a Security Net, in a local state controlled newspaper. It speaks of the ‘Fifth Meeting of National Security Advisors (NSA) of the ‘Colombo Security Conclave’(CSC) at the Maldivian capital Male.
We must confess that it was hard to comprehend the contents of the article. How Sri Lanka entered the CSC and the objectives of this organisation vis-à-vis the Indian Ocean are vague. We will reproduce some paragraphs of the article which if correct would indicate new thinking of Indian foreign policy makers on the Indian Ocean.
We quote: “Before the CSC, given the complexities of regional equations, India as the inevitable centrifugal force in the neighbourhood Indian Ocean Region (IOR) had kept strategic and security relations bilateral. The failure of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to keep out bilateral issues as the Charter promised had made New Delhi especially wary about multilateral arrangements centred on South Asia, but the post-Cold War geopolitical and geostrategic realities have dictated otherwise. This is true of every other member of the conclave. India did say early on that the nation would be the net provider of security in the region but a commitment could and should keep, only through consensus approach as the CSC now indicates….
“India’s vision for what can be justifiably dubbed ‘India’s pond’ began with the External Affairs Ministry (MEA) creating a separate IOR Division focusing on near neighbours, the Maldives and Sri Lanka and then adding Mauritius and Seychelles to the list. In 2019 Comoros, Madagascar and the French Reunion Island forming the ‘mouth’ of the Indian Ocean along with Mauritius and Seychelles were included into the portfolio of the IOR Division.
“No One is talking about Comoros and Madagascar joining the CSC. Yet flanked by India’s extended land territories in the Anadaman and Lakshadweep seas on other side and a friendly US Diego Garcia base sitting in the middle (not to leave out French sovereignty over Reunion) a security net is taking shape to protect the ‘pond’ than admirers and adversaries may have thought of. However such a vision has its limitations as involving extra-territorial powers has the potential the very idea of the CSC.”
The description’ friendly Diego Garcia’ base is intriguing for this is the first time we have heard such an amicable adjective used to describe this controversial military base. Could it be a fallout of the Quadrilateral agreement?
The CSC it appears has its origins in the coup staged to oust the perennial President Abdul Gayoom by a Maldivian businessman who had hired the Sri Lankan terrorist group PLOTE for the purpose. PLOTE did throw out Gayoom who went into hiding and sent desperate messages to New Delhi for help. Rajiv Gandhi, the then Indian Premier, quickly moved into action having the experience of deploying a much bigger ‘peace keeping force’ into Sri Lanka, threw out the PLOTE guerillas and reinstated Gayoom.
This resulted in Indian-Maldives military exercises and how Sri Lanka got involved in the formation of the CSC is not explained. Does membership of the CSC enable India to be the ‘net provider of security’ if a country so requests? Is a President for Life who rigs elections and is thrown out by fair or foul means entitled to Indian assistance as in the case of Gayoom?
Will the security net that is being put in place around islands in the Indian Ocean mentioned above, including the ‘friendly Diego Garcia’, ensure Indian protection of their rulers, however democratic or undemocratic, they may be?
It does grant the pundits on India’s Foreign Ministry power across the Indian Ocean not so much to make the Indian Ocean India’s Ocean but perhaps the ‘Pond’ they envisaged. Small beginnings have great endings, the wise say.
Clouds will soon roll by…..
A Lotus Bud supporter was heard humming Tony Brent’s popular song of the sixties:
Somewhere the sun is shining
So honey don’t you cry
We’ll find a silver lining
The clouds will soon roll by…..
A weather hawk from the Met, however, warns: Monsoon clouds and evening thundershowers are often followed by severe droughts.
(The writer is a former editor of The Sunday Island, The Island and consultant editor of the Sunday Leader)