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The current political confusion and constitutional uncertainty could worsen the economic crisis and lead the country into chaos and anarchy. The immediate need is to establish a stable all party interim government. This is the most immediate national need. The country cannot be allowed to drift from a political upheaval to confusion to uncertainty, chaos and anarchy.

People have ousted a corrupt rule of a family and their cohorts by peaceful means. The larger tasks of establishing an interim government that would reduce the enormous hardships of the people and get the economy functioning are the immediate challenge. Ultimately, the success of the people’s aragalaya would depend on the election of a government that could steer the economy out of the economic abyss it has fallen into. Pragmatism, integrity, honesty, knowledge and capacity to implement economic policies are vital.

Can the country come up with such a leadership at the elections that should take place in six months’ time? This is an unlikely prospect in the country’s party politics and thinking of the multitude.

The current economic conditions of scarcity of essentials and the dysfunctional economy could lead the country into a deeper economic crisis. Such a catastrophe is inevitable if an effective and efficient interim all party consensus government is not established immediately. An ineffective interim government could drive the economy into further depths.

The huge challenge is to form a consensual efficient government that would gain international confidence to obtain foreign assistance, restructure the country’s debt of US$ 51 billion and achieve a position of debt sustainability and arrive at an International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Although this agreement may have to await the formation of a new government after an election in six months, the initial negotiations have to begin now.

The prospects of obtaining international assistance so vital for the survival of the country and revival of the economy are diminishing if the country moves from chaos to anarchy. Even before the current political protests and paralysis of the economy, there were indications that many countries, international organisations and the international community was reluctant to assist the country owing to the political chaos and corruption of the government.

Interim government

Can we resolve our economic problems? Can the all-party interim government that is expected to be formed be able to resolve the severe shortages of essentials and stabilise the economy to some extent?

The resolving of the severe shortages will depend very much on the attitude of foreign governments and international organisations to the political developments of last week. Their assistance either financially or with supplies of essentials is the determining factor.

One could expect India to provide fuel, fertiliser, food and pharmaceuticals as it has done recently. Although the extent of India’s credit so far is as large as 3.8 billion, the political change is likely to be seen as a welcome shift away from a China-leaning Rajapaksa regime.

Will the West Asian Arab world too be more favourable towards giving fuel now that the government that was seen to be anti-Muslim has been dethroned?  If these countries provide oil on credit, it would provide an essential fuel.

Summary and conclusion

The course of events in the next few weeks is very uncertain. Hopefully, an all-party interim government would be established and the prevailing uncertainty and confusion would be resolved and foreign assistance to tide over the paucity of essential and get the economy functioning will be established.Can the country’s political leadership rise to the nation’s need?