Sunday Times 2
A 91-year-old US-Saudi alliance in jeopardy
View(s):By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS (IDN)— The longstanding US-Saudi alliance—political, economic and military—which dates back to 1931 is in deep trouble.
US President Joe Biden warned last week that Saudi Arabia would face “consequences” after OPEC Plus, the oil cartel led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced plans for a cut in oil production—an estimated 2 million barrels a day that could escalate fuel prices in the United States.
The implications for the US are both political and economic—particularly at a time when inflation is on the rise and mid-term elections are scheduled for early November.
The reaction in Washington DC, however, was fast and furious.
A group of lawmakers from the ruling Democratic party have threatened to pull all American troops, out of both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), another partner in OPEC Plus, which was a party to the price hike.
Democratic Representatives Tom Malinowski of New Jersey, a former State Department official in the former Obama administration; Sean Casten of Illinois; and Susan Wild of Pennsylvania announced last week they were planning to introduce a bill to remove all US forces and military equipment from the two oil-rich nations.
But is this an empty threat or a political reality?
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the five biggest arms buyers from the US during 2017-2021 were Saudi Arabia, which accounted for 23.4 percent of all US arms exports—followed by Australia 9.4 percent, South Korea 6.8 percent, Japan 6.7 percent and Qatar 5.4 percent.
Currently, the Saudis are the biggest single buyers of American weapons systems—a major lifeline for US defence contractors who lead a powerful political lobby in the US.
A US State Department Fact Sheet says Saudi Arabia is the United States’ largest government-to-government foreign military sales (FMS) customer, with more than $127 billion in active FMS cases and commercial sales.
Recent US arms sales to Riyadh include: Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) anti-missile systems; Patriot Advanced Capability-3 air defence systems; follow-on support for the Royal Saudi Air Force; M1A2 Abrams Main Battle Tanks; High Mobility Multi-Purpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs); Light Armored Vehicles; F-15SA, C130J, and KC-130J aircraft; AH-64D Apache, UH-60M Blackhawk, AH-6I Light Attack, MH-60R Multi-Mission, and CH-47F Chinook helicopters; Multi-Mission Surface Combatant ships; Mark V patrol boats; Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) modernisation; Phalanx Close-In Weapons System; modernisation of the Saudi Arabian National Guard, and Javelin and TOW-2B missiles.
The AN/TPQ-53 Counterfire Target Acquisition Radar in Saudi Arabia. Credit: US Army
Vijay Prashad, Executive Director of the Tricontinental Institute for Social Research, told IDN Saudi Arabia, like many countries, were acting based on its own interest.
“They are not willing to subordinate what they see as their national interests to the demands of Washington, DC,” he pointed out.
“The Biden administration wants to try and lessen the costs of the Ukraine war—namely high energy prices—that are being borne by the Europeans.”
Rather than try to find a peace deal in Ukraine, which would allow Europe’s energy prices to decline due to supply from Russia and increasingly from Norway, the US wanted to ask what it sees as its gas station to pump out more.
This would harm the Saudis, who despite the fist bumps during Biden’s visit, declined to follow orders, said Prashad, who is also a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China.
Asked about the projected rise in oil prices and the future of the US-Saudi alliance, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters on October 13: For many, many months now, “President Biden has been making clear that our goal, when it comes to energy, is to make sure that there is enough supply on world markets to meet demand. And particularly as we head into to winter in various places around the world, that’s even more important. And so that was the lens through which we saw the OPEC decision.”
They also presented no market basis for the cuts, he said.
“We said that to them and we suggested that if they did have concerns about prices going down significantly, if their objective was to keep prices at a certain level, they should wait and see how markets reacted over the coming weeks and wait at least till their next monthly meeting”.
“So that’s what we strongly urged them to do for the reasons I just said. They didn’t do it. And as you know, we are not only deeply disappointed in that, we think it’s shortsighted. And as the President has made very clear, that decision has to have consequences, and that’s something that we are reviewing as we speak.”
Blinken pointed out that Biden also made clear that given the strong bipartisan reaction against the OPEC+ decision, he wants to consult with leaders of Congress when they come back from the campaign trail “to look at the most effective steps that we can take moving forward, keeping in mind that we have a multiplicity of interests with Saudi Arabia and our policies need to reflect that.”
According to the State Department, Saudi Arabia’s unique role in the Arab and Islamic worlds, its holding of the world’s second-largest reserves of oil, and its strategic location all play a role in the long-standing bilateral relationship between the Kingdom and the United States.
“Saudi Arabia plays an important role in working toward a peaceful and prosperous future for the region and is a strong partner in security and counterterrorism efforts and in military, diplomatic, and financial cooperation. Its forces work closely with US military and law enforcement bodies to safeguard both countries’ national security interests,” the State Department said.
(Thalif Deen is a former Director, Foreign Military Markets at Defense Marketing Services; Senior Defence Analyst at Forecast International; and military editor Middle East/Africa at Jane’s Information Group, US. He is also the author of a recently-released book on the United Nations titled “No Comment –and Don’t Quote me on That” available on Amazon. The link to Amazon via the author’s website follows: https://www.rodericgrigson.com/no-comment-by-thalif-deen/)