The Political Column

30th January 1999

UNP offer puts Govt. in a fix

By our Political Correspondent

Should the government look at it with suspicion and examine the credibility of the UNP's offer and at the same time ascertain the intentions behind Ranil Wickremesinghe's new stand? Many PA ministers think that Mr. Wickremesinghe's offer is not sincere enough and his own statement is contradictory when he says he is ready to support and in the same breath solicits the support of the PA for a future UNP government to solve the same crisis.

Most government ministers feel they will be walking into a trap if they take the offer without a searching analysis of it. The question remains whether the government should spend time in politicial nitpicking when the the country is facing a severe crisis?

What the government should do now is to give a positive response to Mr. Wickremesinghe's offer. But so far, the government has failed to do so because it is looking a gift horse in the mouth.

However, it appears that the government is now busy discussing the legal reforms with some amendments to the earlier package.

When the UNP procrastinated for four long years, the PA government of President Chandrika Kumaratunga made a issue of it saying the UNP was trying to scuttle their efforts to resolve the ethnic crisis. Now, when the UNP has responded favourably the government is in two minds as to whether they should take the offer with open arms. The government is apprehensive over the matter, even after they secured a clear mandate to resolve the crisis. Therefore by resorting to such rearguard action, the government has virtually fallen into a defensive position to the UNP's offer and this is contrary to the present political reality.

At this point of time, what the government should do is to go on the basis that it took four long years for the UNP to realize the importance of resolving the ethnic crisis which plagued the country and that the issue should receive priority over all other domestic matters in Sri Lanka. At the same time they should tell the country the importance of the opposition's supportive role when the country is facing a national crisis.

Hence the government's role should be to invite the UNP for a serious discussion rather than trying to dig into the causes and intentions behind the UNP's offer. The response should come immediately because it is only with the UNP's cooperation that the government could get the required majority in parliament. On the other hand what the government should realize now is that this is the appropriate time to settle the ethnic issue since the government is fresh after a convincing majority at the presidential elections held on December 21st. (Assuming that the elections are free and fair). Simultaneously early action will give the government ample time to implement its reforms and see the outcome before it is time for the next presidential elections or whatever election, depending on the constitutional reforms.

The opposition may be having obvious intentions or ulterior motives behind their offer. But what is more important is that the opposition has openly taken a stand to support the government.

If the PA does not take it with open arms they will be missing a good opportunity. In the year 1994 too the UNP offered assistance to the government to abolish the executive presidency but the PA did not show much interest in the matter at that stage. The PA's reluctance may now be is because it would be compelled to abolish the executive presidency immediately if the UNP comes to terms with them to implement the constitutional reforms.

However what the government ministers see, is a different scenario altogether. They are of the view that even though the government was prepared to implement the constitutional reforms, they would not abolish the executive presidency until the end of the second term of President Chandrika Kumaratunga. In fact the constitution will come into full operation from the year 2005 or 2006, in whichever year the president ends her term. This will not go well with the UNP which is trying to find a short cut to power.

The UNP support will only be forthcoming provided that the executive presidency is abolished and independent commissions on elections, police and public service are incorporated into the new Constitution which should come into operation immediately from the date of the promulgation of the new Constitution.

During the talks the UNP had with the business community and thereafter with the government, former minister the late A.C.S. Hameed was very specific on the issue of the abolition of the executive presidency. He wanted to know whether the president was prepared to come back to Parliament immediately if the UNP agrees to support the constitutional reforms. Minister G.L. Peiris who was leading the government delegation at that stage immediately telephoned President Kumaratunga to ascertain this matter. Thereafter he gave an assurance to Mr. Hameed that the president was prepared to come to parliament as a member of parliament if the UNP's support was forthcoming for the constitutional reforms.

Now it is altogether a different scenario since the PA had won for the second time.

The government's dilemma today is whether LTTE supremo Velupillai Prabhakaran is prepared to strike a deal with the government to restore peace in the country. The mentality of the LTTE supremo appears to be that he does not want any agreement with President Chandrika Kumaratunga. However, the LTTE has at present agreed for talks with the government with a facilitator for negotiations. The facilitator would be Norway which has a sound record for such negotiations and agreements. What the government fears most is whether the LTTE would buy time to regroup themselves and reject it later, and whether they would lay down conditions while the talks are on. As its stands today, the government does not want to withdraw its troops from the Jaffna peninsula. At the same time the LTTE has failed militarily so far to achieve their goal in this respect.. The alternative is to use diplomatic moves to secure Jaffna peninsula back. The fear that lingers in the minds of the policy makers is whether the LTTE would insist on the withdrawal of troops from the peninsula for them to consider the government's proposals. The LTTE has a proven track record for this kind of antics which could seriously embarass the government. However the facilitator Norway could persuade the LTTE to accept a reasonable negotiated settlement since the LTTE is heavily dependent on the West and specially the Scandinavian countries.

Is the UNP aware of this scenario? The government suspects that it could be the background for UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe to come out so openly to take a stand on the proposed constitutional reforms.

At the same time the government thinks that the UNP is trying to whip up public agitation against the proposed reforms in an indirect form while giving an assurance that they would support the constitutional reforms. These are the facts under consideration by the People's Alliance government before responding to UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. However, the government intends to talk to all the political parties, including the Tamil minority parties, within a very short period. The first round of talks will be with the constituent parties which would not last for more than two weeks. During the next two weeks the government will talk to the minority Tamil parties to get their views on the package. Thereafter they will allocate a period of two weeks to have discussions with the United National Party to get their views and support for the package. The final round of talks will be held with the LTTE. In other words, the government would talk to the LTTE before presenting the proposals in the form of a Bill in parliament which could be described as President Chandrika Kumaratunga's last chance for peace with the LTTE.

The facilitator in this whole exercise, the government of Norway sent a delegation to Sri Lanka last week to talk to the Tamil parties and the government on connected matters. Norwegian State Secretary Leiv Lunde hosted a reception at the Norwegian Embassy on Monday evening which was attended by the representatives of the EPDP, the PLOTE ,the TELO and other minority Tamil parties.

TULF General secretary R. Sambandan had a meeting with Leiv Lunde on the same day. The TULF discussed the prospects of bringing about peace in the country and exploring the possibility of bringing about a consensus between the People's Alliance and the opposition United National Party. A consensus in the South is fundamental and necessary was the opinion of the TULF if the country wants to forge towards a peaceful settlement. The TULF while welcoming the initiative taken by the Norwegian government has agreed to consider seriously the government proposal. Both the Norwegian State Secretary and the TULF had agreed that the only way to win peace in the country is to make the LTTE also a party to the whole process. Mr. Lunde also met with Constitutional Affairs minister G.L. Peiris, Acting Foreign Minister Lakshman Kiriella and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe.

The overall view of the visiting Norwegian State secretary was that the government should work towards building a consensus between the political parties in the South before forwarding proposals to the LTTE. While discussing with Minister Kiriella, Mr. Lunde has said he was confident that the present dialogue between the PA and UNP would succeed and a consensus between the two parties would be achieved.

The next step will follow after getting the Southern consensus the state Secretary had said.

Minister G.L. Peiris who met with Mr. Lunde at the Finance Ministry on Tuesday discussed the latest political situation in the country. Minister Peiris appreciated the interests taken by the Norwegian government towards a political settlement in the North and East while Mr. Lunde had said that his government was satisfied with the human rights records of Sri Lanka. The ministers also discussed issues on ethnic development and bi-lateral cooperation.

During the talks with UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe the Norwegian State Secretary did not mention anything specific on their attempt to act as a mediator in the Sri Lanka problem.

At present the government is wondering as to whether their effort would be scuttled by the LTTE while the opposition awaits with its fingers crossed for a positive response from the Government. However the Norwegian government is likely to go ahead with their agenda, the next step being a visit by the Norwegian Foreign Minister to Sri Lanka to complete a diplomatic procedure in this connection. Thereafter Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar is expected to make an official trip to Norway.

Mr. Kadirgamar, it appears, has been compelled to take a stand which is contrary to the stand taken by the Sri Lankan government earlier. Mr. Kadirgamar, some time back, told the UN that the Sri Lankan government did not expect to have a third-party mediation in their effort to resolve the ethnic crisis. But despite all these, Mr. Kadirgamar himself would have to get involved in the diplomatic process in a bid to initiate a dialogue between the government and the LTTE with Norway as a facilitator.

The LTTE at present has not rejected the government's offer totally but it is likely that they would buy time trying to strengthen themselves militarily while having talks with the government. Most UNPers are of the view that the LTTE would take the government for a ride and would reject their proposals totally in the end, which means it would be disastrous for the People's Alliance government.

The UNP is expected to ask the PA regarding the response of the LTTE when they meet for discussions during the third round of talks. However the government would try to dodge this issue on the pretext that they still had to contact the LTTE and the facilitator. But the UNP's position is that the government should know beforehand whether there is a positive response from the LTTE.

In this backdrop most political analysts are of the view that the government and the opposition should jointly make an effort to bring about a reasonable solution since the country is bleeding under protracted hostilities between the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE for 17 long years.

The other main problem the government is facing at present is the criticism levelled against it by the private media on the manner in which they conducted the presidential elections. Some people are of the view that the election was a fraud on the people of this country who relied upon democratic norms. It was unfair and unjust when the opposition polling agents were chased away in many of the polling stations throughout the country.

At a meeting held at the Information Department Auditorium heads of several state-owned media institutions came out strongly against the newspapers and the private media.

Information Director Ariya Rubesinghe who spoke at length said it was his repeat theory that worked for the government. He said that at the beginning he did not know what it was, but later he devised it on his own. What Mr. Rubesinghe meant was that the state media won the elections for President Kumaratunga by repeating the same news items which are unfavourable to the opposition many times over Rupavahini. He said people do not want to listen to "Kabal Paththara Karayas" referring to the private print media in the country.

While various government agencies are trying to take undue advantage over President Kumaratunga's victory, the UNP at the same time is trying to put the blame on the government for the defeat.

According to the UNP, the rampant election malpractices and the unfair manner in which elections were conducted by the government were the main reasons for their defeat. However one UNPer told this column that they themselves were to be blamed for the defeat. The man in the centre of the controversy over the UNP's defeat other than General Secretary Gamini Atukorale is Sudath Chandrasekera, an Officer, attached to UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe's security outfit. Many UNPers alleged that Mr. Chandrasekera had gone to the extent of changing the speeches prepared by experts working for UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe in the field. He on one occasion is believed to have changed the quotations of Mahathma Gandhi and people of great intellect, think that the words used were too heavy. But on seeing this Mr. Wickremesinghe had corrcted Mr. Chandrasekera. These UNPers think that he allegedly misled the UNP leadership because he innocently believed what was exchanged by an influential business lady in the city with a similar contact in the government security outfit. The UNPers think that they would have to start afresh for the next parliamentary general elections which is scheduled to be held somewhere in August.

In the meantime, some of the UNP dissidents are making overtures to the UNP, once again, saying that they would be prepared to work for the UNP under a new leadership. But at present the leadership of Ranil Wickremesinghe has been well established and rooted within the party. One good example is that most UNP members who opted to go along with the dissident UNPers had decided otherwise after Mr. Wickremesinghe's first joint parliamentary group working committee meeting held a week ago. Mr. Wickremesinghe is happy that the party cadres have decided to stick with him although they have certain differences.

But the Supreme Court Judgment on the expulsion of the dissident parliamentarians from the UNP could change the present character of the UNP.

If the Supreme Court holds with the UNP's decision it would further strengthen the leader's position. But if the court holds with the dissidents it would open the floodgates for the UNP, parliamentarians, whose freedom will be enhanced and that they would air their views according to their conscience. Quite a number of people who eagerly await the Supreme Court determination in this matter are of the view, that the court is more likely to hold with the dissidents, overturning an earlier judgment of Justice Kulatunga (UNP rebels case against President Premadasa) in the early ninetees which means that freedom of expression is guaranteed for them in and outside the party. People think that the point on natural justice would play a prominent role in this case where the UNP failed to hold a proper inquiry into the allegations against the dissidents.

In the circumstances the main priority for Mr. Wickremesinghe right now is to keep the party cadres intact. For this, he needs the able assistance of someone of the calibre of party chairman Karu Jayasuriya. It has been conveyed to the party leadership that the Muslims in the East are now prepared to sacrifice the national list seat allocated to them for the well-being of the UNP. In other words they are prepared to give this seat to party chairman Karu Jayasuriya who is able to fill a big vacuum in the party.

Former minister A.R.M. Mansoor had all these good intentions when he rose to speak at the UNP working committee meeting held a week ago. But he was shot down by party leader Ranil Wickremesinghe before he could speak out, it is learnt. However after the working committee meeting, Mr. Mansoor had a meeting with Karu Jayasuriya when he told that they were willing to sacrifice the Eastern Province seat for Karu Jayasuriya. He also said that if he had the opportunity, he would have told this at the working committee meeting.

Meanwhile the people of this country are witnessing how some PA hooligans are behaving taking the law into their hands. Their obsession appears to be to harass the supporters of the opposition. The first of its kind was the burning of the ancestral home of Anoja Weersinghe who supported the candidature of Ranil Wickremesinghe at the presidential election and there had been numerous other occasions where the people have been harassed for supporting the UNP. The Nikeweratiya electorate took a worse turn with the government politicians victimising the innocent UNP villagers. Then comes the demonstration sponsored by the trade unions and under the auspices of minister Alavi Moulana who had a demonstration against the so called anti government bureaucrats.

The latest in this series is the attack on popular singer Rukantha Gunatilleke and his wife Chandraleka Perera. Unidentified gun-toting thugs who broke into Mr. Gunatilleke's house harassed them and fled away when they learnt over their communication equipment that police were approaching.

This is the kind of democracy that Sri Lanka is drifting in to today despite being under a government which pledged to have a fair deal for all.

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