30th April 2000

Invation of Jaffna inevitable

Elephant Pass is supposed to be the gateway to the Jaffna peninsula. From a military point of view Elephant Pass is supposed to be an essential and vital point for the control of Jaffna. It was due to its very great strategic importance that the military base at Elephant Pass had been turned into a massive complex, manned by 15,000 soldiers or more. The armed forces had been able to repulse all previous attempts by the LTTE to capture Elephant Pass. The fact that Elephant Pass had to be abandoned proves that it would not take much time for the LTTE to recapture Jaffna.

At a time when the capture of Jaffna was eulogized as a very great victory, there was also a group of people who saw it as a voluntary move by the LTTE to create a blockade.

The euphoria caused by the capture of Jaffna was such that it gave no credit to such an assessment. Although the LTTE was expected to fight using all their resources against the capture of Jaffna by the government's armed forces, it (the LTTE), instead fled to the Wanni, allowing the government forces to capture the peninsula.

The army captured Jaffna without bringing under its control the large stretch of land from Jaffna's gateway to Vavuniya. Consequently all supplies of goods to the armed forces and the people in Jaffna had to be sent by sea and air and the cost of such an exercise was very high. With sea and air transport becoming increasingly insecure, the importance of a supply route through land was realised and a massive effort was made to establish such a route. However, the Tigers were able to frustrate that attempt. It appears that the blockade of Jaffna at an appropriate time had been the LTTE's strategic aim and that the capture of Jaffna without a gradual liberation of the stretch of land below it was a tactical move in view of the possibility of a blockade by the government's armed forces some day.

The Palaly base is now the only place to which the army could withdraw should they sustain heavy losses in another major confrontation. However, if the only remaining base too has to be given up, the nearly fifty thousand members of the army and the police in Jaffna would have nowhere to go.

According to the present trend of the war, the control of the Jaffna peninsula by the LTTE is inevitable. If the LTTE takes over the administration of Jaffna leaving the control of Palaly in the hands of the government's forces, the damage might not be very great. But if the LTTE goes on to blockade and attack the Palaly base too, the disaster that would ensue is very great indeed.

It is difficult to expect good results from the peace talks which are scheduled to take place with Norway serving as a facilitator. There is no concurrence between our expectations and those of the LTTE. They are in a victorious mood and we are in a defeatist one. They are unlikely to be satisfied with a simple devolution that the government proposes. If they agree to anything short of a separation it might be only to a confederation. It means another parliament for the areas in the North-East inhabited by Tamil people. The Sinhala society is in no mood to accept such a solution. In the circumstances, a separation is inevitable. Any attempt made militarily at this point of time to prevent a separation is unlikely to bear fruit. Even such a harsh measure like introducing compulsory military service will probably not suffice.

The country is moving towards an extremely dangerous phase. The country has fallen not into a deep well but into an abyss. Unfortunately, all the political leaders of the country are groping in the dark. Not only the political leaders but also the society of Sri Lanka should be held responsible for allowing a problem which could have been resolved with wisdom to deteriorate to a probable separation. As stated by Lee Kuan Yew, failure to manage racial passions is an inherent weakness of all present day politicians of Sri Lanka. For that very reason, Sri Lanka will be regarded as a beautiful country with a long history, which is gradually being destroyed by folly.

Inside the glass house

Editorial/ Opinion Contents