Law and Order turning topsyturvy 

First it was unlawful election posters and cut-outs. Then started intimidation by threat of violence followed by hooting, jeering and throwing stones at vehicles and pulling down posters and cutouts. 

Soon it developed into physical attacks, their vehicles, election offices and even houses were smashed. With personalities holding responsible positions making public announcements assuring his supporters that "the elections will be won by hook or by crook".

When the people lost confidence in the government, the people formed themselves into an organisation to campaign for free and fair elections. 

It even prompted a village lass to do an Olympic dash for free and fair elections in Sri Lanka. Now we see the People's Yellow Ribbon Campaign being infiltrated by politicians who at the same time are resorting to unlawful campaigning. Can the Minister of Justice be more depraved than to tie yellow ribbons while at the same time exhibit his posters and cutouts in public places unlawfully? 

Insulting the intelligence of the people, what is true and what is right are also being misconstrued and forced down the people to suit mischievous ends. 

From a proper evaluation of unfolding events and information available, a grave and insidious plan can be perceived. The stage is being set for general mayhem and, with partial state officials in place, to rig the elections under cover of suppressing violence. 

The people will have to be organised and prepared to meet this situation as well. The Commissioner of Elections stands tall today, doing his part without fear or favour. But the people cannot leave everything to the Elections Commissioner. Now that he has given the lead, the people will have to be prepared to rise up en- masse and rally round the Commissioner of Elections to ensure free and fair elections. It also gives the Police an excellent opportunity to win back the lost confidence of the people by co-operating with the people to save them from subjugation to state terrorism. 

Countdown

It's gold or nothing in this race 

by H. Chanda Dhamma

But as soon as the cheering was over there emerged a common sentiment: "It serves him right" most of them said, referring to a particular ruling party politician. 

They echoed the sentiment that justice had at last been delivered to a rural girl hard done by a suddenly powerful rural boy who succumbed to an infatuation and was angered by rejection.

We do not know whether that would be an accurate yardstick to measure the popularity of the ruling PA at the upcoming poll. But if it is at least an omen, then the government must surely be cautious in evaluating the outcome of Sri Lanka's own 'Polympics' which get under way on October 10.

As the last lap of this race gets underway we must also spare a thought for the 5000-odd marathon runners- most of whom will end up as 'also rans'- at the hustings. The security fears the candidates and their families have for themselves and their loved ones are genuine concerns. Many of them must surely be wondering whether they will return home when they venture out. This is so for their security staff and even for their hardcore supporters- as the JVP learnt the hard way in Matale this week.

Nevertheless, we Sri Lankans seem to agree that elections are a necessary evil in democracy because despite all its faults and shortcomings-the 'manaapa' fights included- there is no substitute for representative democracy in the modern world. 

True, recent history in this country is replete with case studies of nobodies who become not only somebodies but pompous and crooked somebodies once they enter Parliament by deceiving the voter but even then this system of government is better than feudal monarchies and military dictatorships that still govern the people of many other countries.

With that little sermon, let's get down to the brass tacks of what is taking place in the Sri Lankan electorate of 11 million voters whose numbers are increasing with alarming rapidity- something that future legislators will have to keep an eye on. A drive to the countryside quite apart from the populous Colombo and Gampaha districts around seven in the morning- when schools open- or two in the afternoon- when they close- will be thought provoking for the potential Parliamentarian, for it does give a mind-boggling reminder that jobs for all this youth must be provided in the near future. 

But even then, is future employment the real issue at this election? Of course not. From opinion polls conducted so far, the major issues considered by the electorate are the war in the north and the economy in the south, if one may put it rather simply.

And in considering these issues, there seems to be a slight advantage still for the ruling PA over the major opposition, the UNP in districts outside the North and East. The scenario in the North and East is too clouded to venture predictions and in all probability will play a crucial role in the formation of the next government- again simply because as much as 31 seats in Parliament will be from these two provinces.

The plus factor for the UNP in the polls is the fact that the economy takes the gold medal in the issues before the people and most people still believe that it is the UNP which can deliver the economic goods better.

But this is not because of the 'new' UNP's economic wizardry or what is shown through video projections to Colombo's business elite. None of this state of the art propaganda has filtered beyond the Dehiwela, Kelaniya or Kirulapone bridges- it is the UNP's reputation, or indeed J. R. Jayewardene's reputation of opening up the economy, liberating the markets and providing employment opportunities that has stood the party in good stead, some 20 years after the policies were first introduced. But with the credit also goes the debit against the UNP and their track record of 'Beeshanaya' and 'Dooshanaya' does still linger, the former in the South and the latter in the urban areas.

The government for its part knows that its handling of the economy is its Achilles' heel in the campaign and it has attempted to counter that by publishing booklets enumerating the number of culverts, bus shelters and day care centres it constructed. How this will fare against the record of major scale development efforts of the UNP is left to be seen.

The government strategists are also straining to give life to the Ranil Wickremesinghe LTTE link-if ever there was one- a ploy adopted so successfully at the presidential election but now they are hampered by having Varatharajah Perumal on their own National List.

Yet, it does appear that issues have been relegated in this election to a lowly place on the voter's agenda. Priority has to be given also to the personality of the candidate because of the demands placed by the proportional system of voting. Hence the poster war and we see the beatific smiles of Bharatha Lakshman Premachandra and Gamini Lakshman Peiris blessing us in benediction at every nook and cranny though the UNP appear to have lost out badly in this contest.

That is because in Matara for instance, PA supporters have mobile units patrolling the streets around six in the morning tearing off any UNP posters they see. Police who are supposed to act impartially have to look the other way, to avoid a transfer to a 'difficult' area. Then of course, the PA has state resources at its disposal and that is a major advantage but the UNP takes this abuse of government property in its stride because they know they did the same when in office- and will not hesitate to do it again if returned to power!

So, while this election is not really being contested on issues but on the reputations of the parties and their leading personalities what is significant is that larger issues like the proposed constitution is being brushed aside despite the very dangerous consequences if President Chandrika Kumaratunga and her trusted ally S. B. Dissanayake are to be taken seriously- that the election vote will be taken as a mandate to pass a new constitution with or without Parliamentary approval.

The Sihala Urumaya is probably the only party making a din on this issue but this fledgling force is a voice in the wilderness and to the UNP- which did a commendable job in keeping the draft constitution at bay in August- must accrue the blame for not keeping the issue sufficiently alive. As a result, in rural areas where votes are cast on simple issues and not on technicalities of constitutional reform, the masses are still unaware of what the fuss is all about.

Then, there is of course the hidden hand of the LTTE which has struck in 1994 and in 1999. At the presidential poll, Velupillai Prabhakaran planned to eliminate the President and the UNP's chief defence advisor, almost simultaneously. That- and the recent bomb blast at Eye Hospital- alone should be food for thought.

The LTTE's solitary unsuccessful assassination bid at Town Hall misfired at the cost of the UNP with the President surviving and getting a surge of sympathy votes that surely pushed her over the fifty per cent threshold that ensured victory on the first count- quite apart from the rigged votes, that is!

The scenario at this election is however a trifle different. The point the PA is trying to make is that it will be better to have a PA Prime Minister to work with a PA President rather then a UNP Prime Minister to cohabit with a PA President. 

But the people- who are mostly not satisfied with the PA President and the PA Prime Minister they had for the past six years- may think otherwise.

At present standing then, undercurrents notwithstanding, the UNP's vote since December 1999 will surely rise but the PA is still a whisker ahead and rigging could put them to a dozen to 20 seats ahead of the UNP, due mostly to the bonus seats allocated for the districts- even if they win a particular district by the thinnest of majorities.

Neither party appears likely to win a hundred seats and indeed the 'Hung Parliament' scenario- that famous hobbyhorse of political columnists- is gaining currency. But then there are still nine days to go for the poll and it was, if memory serves us right, the former Labour Prime Minister of Britain Harold Wilson who said that seven days is a long time in politics and it seems that the ever increasing number of floating votes in the North, East, South and West are undoubtedly going to decide the future destiny of this nation.

We must wish all the 5000-odd candidates good luck in the coming week- not only for victory but also for survival. May the best of them win. Unfortunately though, unlike Susanthika Jayasinghe, they must strike gold for they will not be hailed as heroes for winning the bronze!

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