The Political Column

Showdown on polls day

But after six years, the war is still raging with the LTTE taking the upperhand at times and the Sri Lankan army dominating at other times.

President Kumaratunga's plans have apparently fallen apart when her attempts to rush through constitutional reforms in August this year were aborted by the UNP and the hardline elements. She now claims she would reintroduce the draft constitution which aims at devolving more powers to the provinces if the PA is re-elected at the October 10 general elections. However, Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake is toeing a different line. At a recent TV discussion, he said no draft Constitution Bill existed as all the impending bills lapsed with the dissolution of parliament. 

Mr. Wickremanayake also said that no solution to the ethnic crisis would be introduced without consulting the Maha Sangha. He said there had been so many amendments proposed to be introduced at the committee stage and therefore a final draft would have been a different one. "I know about them, but I need not reveal these things since the bill is not in existence," he said.

The Prime Minister, known to be a Sinhala nationalist, had reservations about the Constitutional Bill. The PA government did not have somebody from the SLFP to open the debate when the bill was presented in parliament. So the onus fell on the shoulders of Minister M.H.M. Ashraff who presented the President's viewpoint though the SLMC had certain misgivings about the bill.

Many observers believe that the PA is playing a double game. On the one hand it tries to show to the moderates and the international community that the reforms process is very much on, while on the other hand it is wooing the Sinhala voters by playing the hardline card.

Mindful of the ordinary Sinhala voters who may be inclined towards the extremist parties like the Sihala Urumaya, the PA through the Prime Minister conveys a message that it would hold no more talks with the LTTE and that the terrorists would be defeated militarily.

The present military operation to secure the lost areas in the Jaffna peninsula also goes well with the government's agenda though it claims that the war has nothing to do with the polls. 

Some say the operations in the north were begun to keep the LTTE's concentration in the north so that the polls could be held without any disruption. But the recent suicide bomb blasts at election rallies in Muttur and Medawachiya proved them wrong. 

The fear that the LTTE mat unleash terror has compelled many political parties to restrict their campaign largely to the electronic media and the newspapers with main rallies being held in safe areas. The polls 2000 has not seen many major rallies with roads being blocked and people inconvenienced. 

But this fear has not made the campaign violence-free. Poll monitors have recorded more than thousand incidents where violence has been used. 

It is alleged that the police were helpless to curb violence, especially when the act is committed by the ruling party. The police produced Chanuka Ratwatte, son of Minister Anuruddha Ratwatte, before the Kandy Magistrate for allegedly shooting at a motorcade carrying the UNP Kandy district organiser Keheliya Rambukwella and his supporters. But they now say there are no charges against Mr. Ratwatte. An Assistant Superintendent of Police told media there was evidence to show that Mr. Ratwatte was elsewhere when the incident took place. Minister Ratwatte told the press that his son was with him in Galagedera at an election meeting. 

His statement appeared in the newspapers before Mr. Ratwatte appeared before the Kandy Magistrate. If as Police claimed there was no evidence against Mr. Ratwatte, why then did they produce him in court? Is it only after they produced him before the Magistrate that they found there was no evidence? These questions cast a shadow over the role of the police. 

But the police have acted with impunity in prosecuting Mr. Rambukwella and several others for causing obstruction to the police. This makes one to assume that police use two yardsticks — one for the ruling party and the other for its opponents. 

The manner in which the police are acting has persuaded people that the setting up of an Independent Police Commission will be the only way to put them on the right track.

UNP frontliner Anura Bandaranaike complained a news briefing in Kandy the manner in which the police act on complaints against PA thugs was really unsatisfactory. Citing Tuesday's incident in Nuwara Eliya as an example, Mr. Bandaranaike said the police even refused to answer their telephone calls when they tried to complain. He said that they arrived in Nuwara Eliya to attend a meeting at Walapane but the police had requested them to cancel the meeting since nearly 20 vehicles belonging to a ministerial party were coming in that direction. 

Mr. Bandaranaike said, however, that they had a successful meeting in Walapane. He said that between Kandapola and Nuwara Eliya, 200 armed men carrying iron bars, swords and other weapons obstructed them.

Thereafter, unruly mobs pushed Renuka Herath's vehicle down a hill and smashed two other vehicles. He claimed there was evidence to prove that these people were directed by the Minister's security unit.

PA General Secretary D. M. Jayaratne is also worried about the escalating violence in the central province. He has written to President Kumaratunga expressing concern over a plan by a PA strongman in the hills to unleash violence and rig elections.

Minister Jayaratne is perturbed because he could be a direct victim of violence by this particular politico. Minister Jayaratne has alleged that this particular politico has used the Digana village holiday resort to house thugs who are to be used in violent acts and election malpractices. Mr. Jayaratne has urged the President to take immediate action to stop this, saying that people are complaining about this politico and have expressed fears that the government would not take action against him since he is powerful.

Mr. Jayaratne also sent letters to all PA candidates, warning them of the PA politico's plans. He says in his letter that incidents of violence and intimidation have created a fear psychosis in the area and certain elements are trying to unleash violence and planning to stuff ballot boxes on the election day. If such a situation prevails in the Kandy district, the other parties contesting the elections would be forced to appeal to the Elections Commissioner to annul the elections in this district, Mr. Jayaratne states.

Since the Commissioner is empowered to take action under the Election Law, it would be a folly if PA politicos indulge in such acts bringing disrepute to the President and to the party. The Minister has, therefore, appealed to the candidates to desist from violence and to help hold a free and fair election. He has made this appeal to the other parties, too.

According to the present trends, political analysts say the election results will be a photo-finish. Even government ministers feel that the election is going to be a very close one between the UNP and the PA. In the event that the difference between the number of seats the PA and the UNP win becomes marginal, then both parties would stake a claim for forming the government.

The President has the discretion to call upon anybody whom she thinks enjoys the confidence and command the respect of the House to form the new government. But according to analysts, in the event of a hung parliament, it would be difficult for her to decide whom she should call on October 11 — Ratnasiri Wickremanayake or Ranil Wickremesinghe. 

The polls outcome could produce many scenarios. If the PA is able to form a government on its own or with the support of its traditional allies such as the SLMC and Tamil parties, then it would be smooth sailing. If the UNP forms the government on its own strength or with the help of other parties, then the situation would become interesting. Will it be consensual politics or confrontational politics that would shape the things to come is any body's guess.

Of course, the President will retain a fair number of important portfolios such as defence and finance. The President can go up to about 50 percent of the portfolios. But it would be impracticable for her to hold several portfolios. Alternatively, she could go along with UNP or form a national government which could find solutions to many burning problems. 

But the UNP's intention may be to form a government of its own. For this purpose, it needs an absolute majority. If the President becomes non-cooperative, the UNP could make things difficult for her by cutting her funds at the next budget. In such a scenario, the LTTE is going to get the advantage because infighting will not allow the government to think about issues plaguing the country. So it is vital at this juncture to mull over a national government if no party will be in a position to form a government on its own strength.

Meanwhile, the SLMC appears to be at loggerheads with the government over the delay in appointing its leader Rauf Hakeem as a minister. Mr. Hakeem is keeping his options open. He is insisting that the government should immediately implement two projects if it required the SLMC support — the Oluvil harbour and the setting up of a maritime district in Ampara — the two conditions the late SLMC leader M. H. M. Ashraff put forward to President Kumaratunga in exchange of his party's support. 

SLMC leaders have been saying that their party would be in a position on October 11 to decide which of the two main parties would form the next government. To ensure this unenviable position, the SLMC-led National Unity Alliance has enhanced its campaign for a free and fair election. 

In the meantime, SLMC also insists that the government should now work towards implementing the proposals for an independent Elections Commission, an Independent Police Commission and Independent Public Service Commission to create a conducive atmosphere for democracy to work in this country. The SLMC thinks that it could win a few seats outside the North-Eastern province; one in Colombo and one in Kandy. But analysts are of the view that it would be difficult for the SLMC to get anything outside the North-East.

Last week's assassination attempt on Deputy Minister M. L. A. M. Hisbullah is viewed with much suspicion by insiders, too. Some tend to think that it may have been orchestrated by his own supporters as a warning to the SLMC's Rauf Hakeem who has taken over the leadership. The Eastern SLMCers think that the leadership should go to none other than an Easterner and there is no leadership outside the North-East for the SLMC. However, Mr. Hisbullah has made it clear that he is not keen to hold such a key position in the party though he holds the key to the SLMC's success after the demise of M.H.M. Ashraff.

Mr. Hisbullah is a clever politician. Though Minister Ashraff is no more, he could carry the mantle of the SLMC all alone in the Eastern province. His capabilities are numerous and the SLMC knows about it. In any case last week's bomb explosion in Muttur proves that the LTTE is stalking the SLMC. The LTTE possibly thinks that it was the SLMC that put the PA into office. Could this be a miscalculation? That the SLMC is still holding its power-base intact after the death of Minister Ashraff is yet to be established. 

The SLMC thinks it holds the key to power in the East. But party critics say that changing the name of the SLMC to the National Unity Alliance was a wrong decision taken by the leadership at the wrong time.

At present, all political parties have stepped up their campaigns to meet the deadline by Saturday midnight and there is only two more days to go for the election. On October 11, it will be known which party will be entrusted with the task of taking the country forward for the next six years.

Though violence was rampant and most of the PA politicians went berserk during the poll campaign, a few people set an example and still gave a glimpse of hope to the people that they could place their confidence in them. People such as Matara's Dallas Alahaperuma who is facing a tough fight from his own partymen pioneered some exemplary work without putting up posters and not depending on plastic material for decorations.

Credit should also go to people such as Western Province Chief Minister Susil Premjayanth, UNP member Tyronne Fernando and UNP Chairman Karu Jayasuriya who set an example to others as to how to do a political campaign while maintaining a high standard.

Of course, it is likely that UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe will poll the most number of votes in the Colombo district while Karu Jayasuriya and Anura Bandaranaike will head the Gampaha district.

All these things are yet to be seen and there is only one day more for the crucial election which will decide the destiny of this country.

Situation Report

Editorial/ Opinion Contents