The Political Column

28th January 2001

Hakeem is not out after a "100"

By our Political Correspondent

The 100-day ultimatum to the government ended yesterday with no signs of independent commissions for elections, police, the public service and the judiciary emerging. There were also no signs of Mr. Hakeem's National Unity Alliance withdrawing its support to the government or of him resigning.

In October last year, despite his "beloved late leader's decision to quit the PA", he pledged his support to the PA government on condition that the commissions would be set up within hundred days. That's how he justified himself.

His ultimatum came in the aftermath of his touch-and-go victory in the Kandy district. Till the last minute it was not sure whether he would make it. When the going got tough he openly blamed supporters of Gen. Anuruddha Ratwatte for mass-scale rigging and malpractices that robbed his party of a victory it deserved.

With the hundred-day deadline now past, Mr. Hakeem's political nudity has been exposed. One of his critics called it an "all F and no S" pledge.

In this backdrop, he met Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake to discuss a memorandum of understanding to be signed between the PA and the NUA. The meeting was unproductive with Mr. Hakeem later reporting back to the President saying: "He is communal and a difficult customer to deal with." Political sources said the Prime Minister refused to give in to some of the demands made by Mr. Hakeem.

On Monday, Mr. Hakeem was compelled to make a statement in Parliament when UNP's A. H. M. Azwer ignited the issue, firing salvos at Mr. Hakeem. It was not the first time Mr. Azwer had raised the 100-day ultimatum issue. But the response this time from Mr. Hakeem was different. The NUA leader said he was not sure whether he would remain in the cabinet — drawing a note of sympathy from Mr. Azwer.

"I don't want any sympathy from the opposition, but would do what is necessary when the time comes," he retorted.

Mr. Hakeem was to meet President Kumaratunga on Monday but the meeting took place only on Tuesday as the President was not well.

At Tuesday's meeting, the two sides made little headway. President Kumaratunga reportedly told Mr. Hakeem to be patient until she came out with a compromise.

"Those words did not appease Rauf. He was expecting something concrete to feel secure, especially in the face of mounting opposition within the party," one of Mr. Hakeem's advisors told this column.

While Mr. Hakeem was meeting the President, the SLMC politburo met at the party headquarters with party chairman H.M. Farook, in the chair. The meeting began with trouble when some anti-Hakeem intruders made their presence felt in a noisy manner. It ended in near fisticuffs between the two factions, one supporting Mr. Hakeem and the other opposing him, but not fanatically supporting SLMC founder M.H.M. Ashraff's widow Ferial Ashraff's leadership either.

It all began when objections were raised by a member as to how some intruders came to be present at the politburo meeting.

The strangers then produced letters authorised by a member on behalf of the secretary. But many politburo members rejected the letters saying they were "bogus" and charged they had come there to create problems for Mr. Hakeem.

The politburo was divided over this and other matters, including Mr. Hakeem's ultimatum and instead of settling the disputes with a spirit of fraternity, the meeting ended in near fisticuffs.

However, the Hakeem camp feels the party should stand firm and tell the government in no uncertain terms that it would support a bill the UNP is planning to present in parliament seeking the appointment of the commissions.

If Mr. Hakeem takes this step, it would further weaken his position in the government — an unwelcome development at a time when he is facing challenges to his leadership from the Ms. Ashraff camp, some analysts say. But others say Mr. Hakeem has the backing of at least six MPs from the SLMC/NUA combination and could still pose a threat to the government.

With just two weeks to go for the party convention and Ms. Ashraff ending her mourning period, the battle for leadership is hotting up. But this leadership crisis has caused concern among party elders who believe party interests should come before the self-interest of leaders.

Meanwhile, for the main opposition UNP, it is party time though they said in a release there would be no dance, in fact there was dancing.

Even printed ticket books calling it a dance were quickly withdrawn when the party was accused of being completely out-of-step with what was happening in the country - and fresh ticket books printed without the word 'dance'.

One of the brains behind the event was Ravi Karunanayake, the go-getter MP for Kotte who formed the "United Net" group aimed at attracting young professionals into the party ranks.

The move, however, turned into a major controversy within the party with a group vehemently opposed to the idea of holding a dinner-dance while complaining that the government was having tamasha after tamasha quite oblivious to the difficulties the people faced.

There were several old-timers who were very critical of the suggestion - though they were forced to adhere to party leader Ranil Wickremesinghe's insistence that the show must go on come what may.

It was therefore an irony of ironies that while the UNPers carried a coffin by day in Kotte to mark the death of the rupee, they had changed into their best party shirts at night and had a ball with music, dancing and a pukka diet to fill their bellies at night.

The UNP group meeting on Tuesday also took up the fund-raising dinner held on Friday at the CR&FC. The meeting was told that the dinner was organised by a group of friends who really want to help the UNP to raise funds and Ravi Karunanayake was assigned with the task of organising the dinner for this group.

Former Speaker M. H. Mohammed emphatically said that there should not be room for a "clique" within the party -— meaning that the UNP should not allow a separate entity to flourish within the party.

Tyronne Fernando said there should be some sort of accountability if they were planning a dinner to raise funds while Joseph Michael Perera pointed out a committee had already been appointed to raise funds for the party. Mr. Perera was wondering as to why the party was depending on others to raise funds when there was one already assigned with the same task. But Mr. Wickremesinghe vetoed all of them and said that he had given the green light.

Gamini Lokuge said the dinner and the involvement of Anoja Weerasinghe in party activities would create a wrong impression about the party among the people.

Mr. Wickremesinghe came out strongly against Mr. Lokuge.

"I know as much as you know about public perception and I disagree with you," he said.

Mr. Wickremesinghe was in Singapore when the whole episode about the so-called "green bash" triggered off and was particularly unhappy that his Deputy Leader Karu Jayasuriya and Assistant Leader Gamini Atukorale had different views about this at the beginning.

The government's decision to allow the free float of the rupee has already shot up prices of many commodities such as sugar. The price of sugar has gone up to over Rs. 40 in some retail stores.

Though the decision to allow the commercial banks to determine the rupee-dollar rate, an economic measure that would bring export earnings to Sri Lanka, it has placed severe burdens on the ordinary people. This move the government had thought of had to be resorted to sooner or later.

In actual terms, the PA has gone on a rapid pace introducing economic reforms than the more right-wing UNP. It has privatised the Telecom and the management of SriLankan Airlines. It handed over the development and operation of sections of the Colombo Port to a foreign consortium.

The government hopes that the free float of the rupee will finally allow the currency to stabilise in the region of Rs. 88 to Rs. 90, the actual value. The free flow of money back to the country would allow the government to borrow through Treasury Bills for current expenditure. It is also predicted now that the Bank lending rates would go down considerably with this move.

However, it is immensely important to monitor the currency fluctuations since the banks could manipulate the dollar rate which would bring negative results.

Though a considerable salary increase would be required to cushion the effects of the sliding rupee, government or private sector employees may not expect anything more as under these circumstances the country will find it difficult to forge ahead economically.

But the government's thinking is different. "There is a ray of hope," says Presidential Trade Advisor Kingsley Wickremaratne, "If OPEC prices are slashed things would be all right by June. The benefit of this would certainly be passed on to the masses," he told this column.

Meanwhile, UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe is of the opinion that the government has allowed the rupee to float at a wrong time. "To allow the rupee to float there needs to be a sound economic background and a proper plan," Mr. Wickremesinghe told the UNP group meeting.

Whatever it may be, the free float of the rupee was something which the UNP may also have resorted to.

In its "Partnership 2000" economic policy programme it said, inter-alia, the exchange rate will be floated immediately and capital accounts will he opened within 18 to 24 months with the guidance of multilateral institutions. Upon assuming office, the preparatory work including getting some "financial" rights would be endeavoured. By opening up the Capital Account, the UNP has taken up the challenge of having to manage the economy well, they said.

Situation Report

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