Sri Lankan Economy - where are we heading?

By Chandima Padmaperuma (Lawyer and banker)

In the context of the Lankan economy, one might even protest that it is not proper to ask the question, "where are we heading?" That is because there is a school of thought, which argues that we are not heading anywhere. Be that as it may, the objective of this analysis is to facilitate and prod policy makers and the general public into generating some food for thought in order to change their way of thinking for the betterment of the economic conditions within which we operate.

Mention of the word economy suddenly makes everyone visualise lists of statistics or generally known indicators such as inflation, interest rates, foreign exchange rates, etc.

The term economy is a generalised aggregate word, which literally means "a social science that deals with the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services or the material well-being of human beings". Therefore when we discuss the economy we refer to all the economic indicators, indices and generally the standard of living of the general public.

The economy of a country is mainly based on its historical economic trends, recent economic conditions and mainly on the political ethos and the will. The most basic and strongest indicator is inflation, because that is the most sensitive phenomena that make the masses feel the heat from price changes. The term inflation is simply a euphemistic word for the rising cost of living. In fact inflation is one of the last consequences of a chain of economic adjustments. But so-called adjustments are initially felt by different sectors of the economy. For example when the interest rate goes up the business sector will feel the repercussions. But, on the other side the general public will be enticed to save more and might feel happy thinking that they can earn higher returns on savings. But the business sector will not be happy because the rise in the cost of borrowing in turn leads to lower profits, if they don't increase prices of goods and services. Therefore in order to sustain the same profit margin producers will increase prices creating inflation. The reality is that it is not an easy task to strike a balance between the different categorical adjustments that might arise or as the situation demands. Therefore most of the economic decisions usually lead to a dilemma. Typical example of this is the currency devaluation, which in fact theoretically supports the export sector but is detrimental to the import sector. But yet again for a country like Sri Lanka where a high proportion of imports are capital goods and raw materials for the export industry, the impact of such a currency devaluation will affect the cost structure of the export industry, distorting and slowing export expansion. Therefore the currency devaluation in such a scenario will bring unpredictable results in respect of both export and import sectors.

In fact Central Banks all over the world, irrespective whether it's a developed or a developing country, are doing an extremely difficult job in taking economic decisions and managing economies. Naturally it becomes more difficult when it is a developing country mainly due to the country's dependence on borrowings from other countries and financial institutions. But still there is no excuse for running an economy unwisely because even among worst scenarios there should be a more satisfactory situation in comparative terms.

The shape of our economy 

It could be noted that our economy is not in a satisfactory shape. With the present status of the economy, becoming a NIC in the near future is far beyond reach, given there is no change in the status quo. Comparatively low growth rate, prevailing high interest rates, export expansion, slow expansion in the manufacturing sector, low performing stock market, insufficient and reluctant foreign investments, unpredictable and volatile foreign exchange rates especially in respect of the US dollar, level of infrastructure facilities, unbearable defence expenditure and the budget deficit are some of the signals which could be considered as evidence of an 'undesirable' economy by any standard.

The so-called signals, which are of negative note, are definitely going to affect the long- term economic health. Therefore it is an obvious fact that the environment within which the household and producer is operating is not conducive for effective development. In financial terms our environment is a risky one with high volatility.

If we try to analyse reasons for this tragic state of our economy we can find enough reasons and excuses. Some reasons are genuine but it would have been better with a proper vision, focus and a direction and most importantly a set of visionary leaders. Getting out of this situation is a Herculean task.

Strategic Vision

Do we have a vision? It is an accepted and an established fact that any country should have a vision. The term vision is a vague word with a broad meaning. It is easier to have a vision than to have an objective because an objective is a more precise term than the word vision. The vision of a country is the vision of its leaders, which should represent the aspirations of the people or the citizens of that country. A vision set out by one leader in a given time frame is in fact a waste, if it is not harnessed and carried forward by the subsequent generation of leaders in continuation like a chain, irrespective of their political directions. Countries with such visions have achieved greater heights. The important fact is that a country should have a long-term vision in order to realise any positive outcome in respect of the economy, which represents a summary of all the other sectors such as business and finance, education, health, etc. Countries like Singapore, South Korea and Japan have proved this fact beyond doubt, effectively and efficiently.

The other important fact is that a country should be lucky enough to have leaders who could inspire the people and who could boost their morale in order to streamline their minds for committed endeavours towards all-round progress.

The economic situation of a country is simply the aggregate picture of the day-to-day efforts and the hard work of the people who are involved in the process of managing resources which, ultimately, in turn creates demand and supply. The complicated market structures facilitate the exchange of goods and services for the purpose of satisfying the needs of each other. So in fact the economic condition of a country shows the degree of hard work of the masses of a country, inter alia, the extent of resources they have and most importantly the degree of utilisation of such resources, purposefully.

Focus

One of the most important problems we have is that we are not focused to do our jobs properly, as individuals as well as a country. In simple terms we are not committed to whatever we do. The reason for this lies in a vicious cycle of reasons which are interrelated like a chain, where you can't find the beginning or the end. I do not wish to go into that area because that is a more complicated area, which is largely covered by sociology and other related fields.

Why do I say that we are not focused? The answer lies in our hearts. As individuals if we ask ourselves, whether we do our jobs properly, systematically, effectively, efficiently and most importantly strategically, we won't be able to come out with positive answers to such questions. The answer depends on our social and cultural factors, on our educational system, and so on and so forth, which in fact is a description of the vicious cycle I mentioned earlier. The lack of focus and the lack of commitment are the most fundamental reasons for our present economic lapses. The fact that even after more than 50 years of independence we have not achieved a significant milestone in respect of the economy supports this argument. In the same time frame the Japanese, South Koreans, Singaporeans and so many other nations have achieved significant heights due to their focus and commitment.

The lack of vision for our nation is the main impediment, which circumvents the people from being focused. This simple theory explains the poor performance of our economy. Without having a vision for the country it is pointless discussing the strategic vision as strategic vision is needed in order to obtain the competitive edge over our competitors in South Asia and other African and Asian countries which are called emerging markets.

The crisis 

The major crisis we face today in respect of the economy is that we don't have a direction. Our fiscal and monetary policies are determined purely on a myopic basis with a view to cover up the short-term mistakes committed either by the so-called policy makers or by their predecessors to satisfy the politicians. Poor policy co-ordination has fuelled the crisis we face. Social factors have been a catalyst for the crisis reaction. All in all the economy is stagnant and some sectors are declining on a negative note.

The excuse 

The excuse for the bad performance of our economy is the on-going war situation. It is true that war and the related defence expenditure is an unbearable cost for the economy but that is not an excuse to set aside the development work and sit back and relax. 

The truth is even though we say that we are concentrating on the war, we are not even fully focused on that sector. 

If we neglect the other sectors and only concentrate on the war, in the long run the social cost will be beyond our imagination and some of the repercussions may be not be easily reversible.

The problem here is not the war itself but the poor management of the utilisation of resources. Whatever funds allocated by the budget for sectors such as education, health, defence, infrastructure development, etc., are not utilised at the maximum efficiency level and I am not going to discuss reasons behind that because it diverts us from the subject matter. But the very simple question we should ask ourselves is that, this war has been continuing for more than 17 years now, and if the same continues for another 50 years or so, are we still going to give the same excuse to the next generation? The paramount fact is that to fight the war the country needs financial and economic support, which could only be achieved by resorting to sound economic management strategies.

Conclusion

Is there a way out? Certainly there should be and there is. Arguably it is a complicated issue to address purely because of the multi - factorial reasons and forces behind it. Further 'globalization' and in some parts of the world the so-called 'regionalism' has changed the paradigms of the economic development of the poor nations including Sri Lanka. Some invisible forces and giant trade organisations such as OPEC and multi-national corporations are controlling economies in a manner, which is sometimes beyond imagination. 

Emerging economies are still struggling to pass the threshold in order to become fully developed economies. World economic order has changed and will change in future too.

So, are we ready to face this? With regret we are not .Economic pundits may have a different version, but all the economic agents have felt the reality.

Moulding an economy into good shape is a sophisticated exercise. It needs immense amounts of skill and expertise, most importantly it needs the political will. The harnessing of an economy to its right shape is not merely an economic and financial exercise but also a delicate exercise of social engineering.

In order to revive the economy and to maintain a sustainable growth we have to first put the economic fundamentals in its correct position after identifying the critical success factors of the economy. 

But the basis of this article as well as the argument is that we should formulate a strategic vision with respect for the economy and country as a whole. 

Then with a long-term vision, the leaders, politicians, corporations, business firms and general public should incorporate and absorb this formulated vision into their bloodstream. Thus the vision becomes an inspiration. Inspiration will give everyone a sense of national pride and greatness. 

The inspiration should be a catalyst to the people to focus their minds. 

Along with the focus, people should commit themselves for this purpose because focus is not fruitful, especially in the long term, if it is not accompanied by commitment. 

That is simply because success can only be sustained if people are focused to their objectives and committed to their course.

Look beyond the corporate bottom line, urges HNB CEO

By Chanakya Dissanayake

The head office building project has cost us Rs.2 billion so far. When originally planned we budgeted the cost of funds at 10%. But with the return of high interest rates last year, our cost of funds for the project jumped to 21%-22%. This was unprecedented and resulted in a cost over-run.

We are very confident that this project is going to bear results in the long run. We will be saving over Rs. 20 million per month in rental costs alone when we relocate most of our offices – spread across Colombo - to the new building.

We also plan to rent out 40% of the space in the new building to other companies. Many businesses have expressed a willingness to move out from congested Fort to our premises.

As for our overheads, I admit that they are higher than of our competitors, Sampath and Commercial. But you must realise that these overheads are a result of our wider branch network.

Ten years back we adopted an aggressive branch expansion strategy. Our competitors were much slow in their branch expansion. We literally went to the customer. As a result, we have the access to a wider deposit base and a diverse market.

Someday in the future, when our competitors decide on expansion, they will have to incur higher costs than us. No bank in Sri Lanka can challenge the social banking aspect of HNB. We have invested in village level self-employment schemes. We continue to run school-banking units - training children in banking. These are all long-term investments. We are developing an islandwide loyal customer base. We did a lot of development banking at a time Sri Lanka needed it most, even when the original development banks started to move away to commercial banking. The cost of this will be amply justified in the long run.

But there is also room to be more efficient in our operations. Efficiency and service should go together. I do not want to cut my staff by half and make customers wait one hour in queues.

Technology-wise HNB is behind its competitors. Isn't this a competitive disadvantage?

Yes, we are behind Commercial and Sampath to some extent. We have a long-term plan for technology. Our focus is not only on the corporate market. Even the rural customer would like an ATM card. We will be broadbasing technology to reach a wider clientele than our competitors.

True, I agree that technology is a competitive disadvantage to us. But I have 12,000 customers in Kandy. Say, if only two people want to operate an account in Colombo through Kandy I can't invest for the purpose of just two clients. My focus is not on that minority. I need to look at the needs of all the clients.

Technology is a priority. But I am not prepared to jump at it at great cost. That's why we wanted to join up with the Sampath Bank, mainly on technology.

Last year many banks did not go for loan growth. This year will HNB go for growth?

I disagree. Last year banks did not go for growth because there were no opportunities for growth. Some of our best customers were having difficulties in servicing loans. Of course the trading community was doing well.

My point is that loan growth should go with economic growth. It is upto you to decide whether there's economic growth in this country.

Tell me – can any client borrow at 22%-25% and invest? Pettah traders can do it, but not the manufacturing sector. Capital investments are unsustainable at the prevailing high interest rates, and will remain so until the rates come down.

What are your plans to improve the capital adequacy of HNB?

I agree capital needs to be adequate for growth. I asked this question from the Central Bank governor: where can we go for capital in this market?

We cannot go to the stock market because it is not performing. The Central Bank can raise the Capital Adequacy requirement even further up, but where do they expect us to raise the capital? Markets should be conducive for high capital adequacy requirement. At the present 10%-11% rate, I am maintaining the Central Bank requirement. The Commercial Bank may have 15%, but that is not my problem. In my opinion they are not utilising their capital properly. You need not have very high capital adequacy, it is only a prudence measure.

We cannot go for a fresh equity issue, who will invest in today's market?

Are you hoping to obtain a credit rating in the near future?

We have applied for a rating from Fitch. They want us to wait for some more time until we settle some matters pertaining to our investments.

The opportunity cost of investing in Sampath bank… is it justified?

We are very confident that the investment is going bear results in the long run.

Our intention was not to swallow Sampath or to merge with it. We wanted to work together to exploit the synergies and go forward in a difficult market. The DFCC and Commercial Bank are doing the same thing. It is very unfortunate that we had to go through these difficulties.

What are your plans to enter the insurance sector?

We made a fair bid to the government to take over NIC. It was a prudent bid considering the further investments we were planning to make on NIC.

We were prepared to pay in cash. However, the government accepted another offer.

But we have not given up our intentions to enter the insurance sector. We have made an application to the Central Bank to allow us to invest in insurance. After that we need to get permission from the insurance board.

We are in touch with a strong foreign principal and once permission is obtained we are ready to start insurance business immediately. We could launch the project in two to three weeks if permission is granted. We hope to invest around Rs. 200 million in the proposed insurance joint venture.

We will not be competing with the Colombo-based insurance companies. Our target will be the vast rural and semi-urban market, which has not been penetrated so far. There is a tremendous potential for insurance in these sectors. 

We already have a relationship with this market through our branch network.

You have contributed immensely to the growth of HNB. What is your succession plan and will your successor be able to sustain the same level of expansion, diversification and expectations?

The succession plan is fully identified. I can assure that the bank will continue its growth regardless of who is in this seat.

I have 26 officers in corporate management. There are enough and more to choose from. The board has worked directly with all of them. Succession will not be a problem at all.

Finally, where do you see HNB in five years time?

Our sights are set on the (South Asian) region. Right now we are the largest in Sri Lanka and we will be much ahead of our competitors.Sri Lanka is a small market. We need to venture into India and Pakistan. 

We are going to expand into these markets and offer specific products to suit individual needs.

"Don't oppose power plant"-industrialist

By Diana Mathews

If the Norochcholai power plant at Kalpitiya near Puttalam, suspended due to protests and fears from local residents and the Catholic Church over environmental pollution and relocation, gets off the ground it would help to raise power generation and boost industrial activity, noted Aloy Jayawardene the newly appointed president of the Sri Lanka Chamber of Small Industries, at the chamber's 38th anniversary celebrations held in Colombo last week.

Mr. Jayawardene, emphasising the importance of small industries, said everyone takes the small industry for granted whereas this is the engine that provides most of the jobs and contributes substantially to the economy of the country.

The introduction of the open economy in the late 1970s did a lot of damage to small industries. "In the years following these reforms (1997) this sector has been deprived of raw materials. The maximum one would get was a minimal 60 percent of what was needed," he said. "The damage was immense - over 5,000 small and medium industries had to wind up with thousands thrown out of employment," he added. Sri Lanka should protect and nuture the small industries of our country, instead of importing products at competitive prices, he said.

The chamber chief stressed the need for proper anti-dumping policies. Effective anti-dumping legislation should be enacted to prevent the damage caused to the local manufacturing industry.

He also referred to the peace process and a worsening security situation, saying the establishment of peace in the country was of vital importance to the development of industry.

Political bungling curbed the development of industry. "Politicians should know that politics is not a game to be played with," he said. He also described Sri Lanka as suffering from 'Aid Dependent Syndrome', where the government blindly accepts aid from donors in order to be in the good books of the donors.

SEC compounds Kotagala case

The SEC, some years back, prosecuted Kotagala Plantations and its seven directors for failing to immediately notify the Colombo Stock Exchange concerning the "loss" of one of its subsidiaries. 

Officials said the SEC move came after Kotagala Plantations lost control of subsidiary, Agarapatana Plantations, and failed to disclose this development to the commission.

Upbeat Hayleys considers utility investments

The group is planning a tie-up with Indian-based Vivendi group in this connection. Government sources said the Greater Negombo Water Project would allow the entry of a private operator for the first time in the history of water supply in Sri Lanka.

Hayleys has reported an all-time high in profits for the year 2000-2001, with profits before tax reaching Rs. 1.28 billion, up 50 percent from the previous year. Group turnover increased by 20 percent from Rs. 9 billion in 1999-2000 to Rs. 10.8 billion in 2000-2001.

Mr. Mendis attributed the record profits to good performance in the value-added exports of the group. The group's heavy investments in export products have paid off with the free-float of the rupee in January.

DFCC calls for overhaul of banking rules

The existing Banking Act classifies banks into Licensed Commercial Bank (LCB) and Licensed Specialised Banks (LSB). Many activities including operating current accounts are made exclusive to LCB's.

On a global context the traditional boundaries that demarcated commercial banks and development banks have become increasingly blurred, due to traditional multi-lateral credit lines drying up and development banks expanding into commercial banking to survive.

Fonseka has proposed a common banking licence, with the Central Bank permitting these institutions to carry out different activities depending on the capital and other competencies. " The Central Bank can practice more effective regulation on a case by case basis rather than having blanket regulations". "The minimum capital requirement for a LCB is Rs 500 million. With that they can operate current accounts. The DFCC has Rs 26 billion in capital yet cannot operate current accounts due to being classified as a LSB," Fonseka added.

Standard Chartered offers free credit cards

Applications can be made at a bank mobile unit visiting Kandy city, by calling the bank or visiting their Kandy branch where a special counter will be open. In addition bank representatives are available to visit homes and offices.

SriLankan Airlines' website takes flight

The re-designed website is also a precursor to a travel portal that the airline intends to host which will provide the customer with easy links to other travel related sites internationally.

Together with the re-launch of its website, SriLankan has scored another first with the launch of its dedicated cargo website www.srilankancargo.com. SriLankan Airlines has recognised the importance of the Internet as one of the best marketing tools to provide its services internationally both quickly and efficiently. The airline expects approximately 75,000 impressions per month on both its websites in the next few months.

"The launch of the new website is a major step forward for SriLankan Airlines as we increasingly make use of the power of the Internet," said SriLankan's Chief Executive Officer, Peter Hill. "I am delighted at the crisp, clean design and all the new facilities offered on the site. It is a tribute to the enormous amount of hard work put into the project by the teams from SriLankan Airlines and our partner Affno."

With its new websites, not only are passenger and cargo reservations possible, flight arrival and departure information is updated every 15 minutes and cargo can be tracked during transportation. Further an interactive route map gives immediate access to useful information on the airline's offices worldwide.

This is the first phase of the airline's website development plan. The sites will be continuously upgraded in five planned phases. Customers can look forward to an interactive children's site, information on adventure and stopover holidays, meetings, incentives, conventions and exhibitions, online fares, online duty-free purchasing, online car rental and hotel reservations as well as services provided by other travel organizations such as the Ceylon Tourist Board.

The two websites were designed by Affno (Pvt) Ltd. guided by a team from SriLankan's IT and Commercial Divisions, the statement noted.

The simple way of realising your dream

We often wonder what our ultimate goal in life should be. Is it to become a rich, successful and a sophisticated person who might virtually end up having everything in life and then happily call it a day with peace of mind; or to be an average, simple, unsophisticated person who would anyway enjoy life? The following conversation between an American business consultant and a Mexican fisherman on career progression has been doing the e-mail circuit and it may shed some light on this issue.

The business consultant had been standing at the pier of a small coastal Mexican village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked. 

Inside the small boat were several large tuna. The American complimented the Mexican on the quality of his fish.

"How long did it take you to catch them?" The American asked.

"Only a little while." the Mexican replied.

"Why don't you stay out longer and catch more fish?" the American then asked.

"I have enough to support my family's immediate needs," the Mexican said.

"But," the American then asked, "What do you do with the rest of your time?"

The Mexican fisherman said, "I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take a siesta with my wife, Maria, stroll into the village each evening where I sip wine and play guitar with my amigos. I have a full and busy life, senor."The American scoffed, "I am a Harvard MBA and could help you. You should spend more time fishing and with the proceeds you could buy a bigger boat, and with the proceeds from the bigger boat you could buy several boats. 

Eventually you would have a fleet of fishing boats.

"Instead of selling your catch to a middleman you would sell directly to the consumers, eventually opening your own can factory. You would control the processing and distribution.

"You would need to leave this small coastal fishing village and move to Mexico City, then LA and eventually to NYC where you will run your expanding enterprise."

The Mexican fisherman asked, "But senor, how long will all this take?"

To which the American replied, "15-20 years."

"But what then, senor?"

The American laughed and said, "That's the best part. When the time is right you would announce an IPO (Initial Public Offering) and sell your company shares to the public and become extremely rich, you would make millions."

"Millions, senor? Then what?"

The American said slowly, "Then you would retire. Move to a small coastal fishing village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take a siesta with your wife, stroll to the village in the evenings where you could sip wine and play your guitar with your amigos."

Food for thought isn't it?

Sent by Renuka Wijayawardhana of Battaramulla 

HP sells its products through Sri Lankan dealers

Telecom news

Tritel launches Voice Messaging Service

Mr. Robert Schuster, Chief Executive Officer of Tritel said this is one of the first international voice messaging services. "Now a person does not have to make a costly IDD call or wait three weeks for a letter to keep in touch with family and friends. With BuzzMail, a person simply calls a local access number and leaves a voice message which will be instantly delivered to the other party's voice mail box in Sri Lanka or overseas," he said.

Tritel Services (Pvt) Ltd. which commenced operations in July 1997 now has over 3,000 payphones installed across the island. 

The company is backed by Sri Indrajaya Sdn Bhd, a Malaysian company that has diverse and extensive interests in telecommunications and power projects in the South Asian region.

e-mail service by Celltel

The new service, branded "CELLMAIL", allows a subscriber to receive and send e-mails on a Celltel GSM handset via a dedicated Short Message Service (SMS). The service was jointly developed by Celltel and omnibis.com.

A unique feature distinguishing "CELLMAIL" from similar products in the market, is the fact that the subscriber can receive all mail addressed to his regular PC-based e-mail service, Celltel's Chief Executive Officer Dumindra Ratnayaka said.

The initial charge to set up the CELLMAIL service would be Rs.100 and usage will be free of charge till end August, Celltel has announced. Thereafter, the cost of using CELLMAIL would be Rs.2 per message. The e-mail notification through SMS can be activated and stopped whenever a subscriber wishes to do so. Established in 1989, Celltel was the first cellular company in Sri Lanka to become an Internet Service Provider.

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