Trapping UNP: PA's way out of trap

By Victor Ivan 

Her remarks and actions appear to say that since all sources of power are in the pit where she is in, Mr. Wickremesinghe also should come into it if he wants power. Her intention is to get the UNP leader into the pit and then get out of it with his help and then make him a prisoner there.

Had the President succeeded in forming a national government with the UNP even by making Ranil Wickremesinghe the prime minister, then she could have expelled party rebels who threatened to tilt the balance of power in a way disadvantageous to her and fill the resultant vacancies with persons loyal to her. 

This would have made the PA's position safe and eventually strengthened the President's hand to expel even Mr. Wickremesinghe or have him as a prisoner.

In the meantime, the UNP had a difficult decision to make as the talks continued between the two parties. Had it agreed to go with the PA, then it would have destroyed the rebel group within the government. This could have pushed the UNP into a disadvantageous position. The main challenge facing the UNP and other opposition parties is how to form an all-party temporary government for the limited purpose of achieving the essential reforms while evading the pitfalls which the government is planning for them.

If the President can be coaxed to agree to a temporary all-party government which will not exclude the rebel group inside the government, it will be advantageous to the country to move forward, strengthening the economic prospects and enhancing democracy.

The challenge before the opposition is how to face the situation that arises if the President does not agree to a programme for the general welfare of the country.

Parliament is due to reconvene on September 07. In the event the President presents a policy statement, as she is required to do under the constitution, the opposition plans to put it to a vote and defeat it. In the face of this threat, it is unlikely the President whose party no longer enjoys a majority in parliament will inaugurate the new session. This scenario presents a case for a second prorogation until such a day she is constitutionally allowed to dissolve parliament.

Although the idea of a parallel administration is extremely revolutionary and is not a solution to the situation, if the opposition fails to implement a strong programme, it will inevitably lose its popular support. But if the opposition permits the President to act in an autocratic manner despite her party's minority status in Parliament, that too will go against the opposition. 

The opposition has no other way out of this crisis than to form a provisional government aimed at bringing in reforms with the support of government rebels. However, it cannot be a simple process. It will require a great amount of courage and commitment, and also a strong organisational programme.

The present political instability cannot be overcome by enacting democratic reforms alone. Although enactment of democratic reform is an essential condition for the purpose, a foundation for political stability can be laid only if it is possible to achieve some kind of understanding with Prabhakaran. That will be the most complicated problem among others.

It is unlikely that Prabha-karan is unaware that there is no scope for separation in the present world context. However, it will be possible to reach an agreement with him, only if it is possible to find a solution based on an understanding of the Tamil national aspirations and on a solution to the grievances of the Tamil people. 

Reaching an agreement with Prabhakaran is essential for the survival of the country. How to find a solution to the problem of the Tamil people that will enhance their dignity while not causing a protest from the Sinhala people is the supreme challenge before the country today. It is that question which will decide whether stability can be restored in the country.

The writer is the Editor of Ravaya