Too old, too soon

"We are facing a serious crisis. Other populations age when their economies are prosperous. But here there is rapid growth while economic prosperity is down. We have an ageing population that would be a burden on the country," noted Prof. Indralal de Silva, one of Sri Lanka's eminent population experts.

The situation will be grim not now but in 40 years time when the percentage of the elderly - considered those over 60 years - is expected to rise sharply, putting strains on state-sponsored health services and other care-giving facilities. The lack of proper pension schemes and a growing reduction in the state pension structure, on the recommendation of the World Bank, to cut costs to the state will add to future headaches.

Sri Lanka's population is in transition to a low growth scenario in 20 years when the numbers currently at 19 million people will stabilize at the 22-million mark, experts say.

But the single concern is that if in 1991 the median age was 25 years and in 2001 it is 28 years, in 2041 it would be 40 years. "If everyone stood in a queue according to the ages and we pick the middle person in 1991, it would be 25 years. In 2001 it is 28 years while in 2041, it would be 40 years, which is a high age for a population," De Silva said.

The female population was also rising and would far outnumber the male population. Women already account for 51 percent of Sri Lanka's 19 million people.

De Silva, head of the Department of Demography at Colombo University, in a presentation recently to the business community on population trends and ageing said the impact to the economy from an ageing population was enormous.

There would be a larger percentage of 60-plus people in addition to more females, resulting in the dependency ratio rising. Currently 100 working people in the population look after 65 dependants, including children, which would rise to 100 per 72.5 percent dependants by 2041. Old age dependants represented 13.5 percent of the population in 1991 but this figure would dramatically rise to 47.9 in 2041 while child dependants are seen falling to 24.6 percent in 2041 against 51.9 percent in 1991. Figures also show Sri Lanka's population rising from 17 million in 1991 to 22.9 million in 2031 and reducing to 22.8 million in 2036 and 22.7 million in 2041 as the number of births are unlikely to reciprocally match the number of deaths.

The latest population census held last July also shows declining growth trends. According to Wimal Nanayakkara, Director-General of the Census Department, population figures gathered this time show only marginal differences in most areas when compared with the previous 1981 census.

The census was only conducted in 18 of the country's 24 districts, after officials abandoned the count in the war-torn northern and eastern regions where the LTTE had threatened to disrupt the exercise.

The latest census also shows growth in the female population. The number of males per 100 females had declined to 97.9 units from 103.9 in 1981, and is estimated to fall to 95.9 in 2041. Nanayakkara said births of both sexes had dropped to 320,000 per annum from 400,000 in the mid-1980s

De Silva told the ageing seminar organized by the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce that while there was hardly any difference between births and deaths in the 1950s or 1970s, the mortality rate is increasing against the birth rate now while there are more elders in the population mainly due to good health and medical education, and health practices.

Sri Lanka's social indicators including its emphasis on health services and education have been hailed as a model in Asia and figure very high on the UN's human development index. Unfortunately the great strides in health and education - which were far ahead of countries like even Singapore or Malaysia in the 1940s-1950s - have not been matched by economic development and prosperity.

The Sinhalese community will start to contract after 2010 due to increased use of contraceptives and reduced family size. On the other hand the Tamil and Muslim populations are seen rising as there are no concerns about family size while birth control methods aren't favoured by these communities.

The Sinhalese account for 74 percent of the population followed by the Tamils (including plantation workers of Indian origin) at 18 percent and the Muslims at eight percent.

"This won't happen now but in 100 years the Tamil and Muslim communities together would be close to the Sinhalese population," De Silva said drawing from an ongoing study on population and future ethnic ratios. De Silva said Sri Lanka has no proper plan to use current demographic patterns for development and avoid a situation as predicted for 2041. "Most of the prosperous Asian countries developed using these demographic patterns unlike Sri Lanka where we are likely to miss the train."

Sri Lanka's population is also not very healthy with 6-8 percent of the population having mental disorders and a large number of young people joining the disabled and becoming 'young' dependants owing to the war.

"The elderly are a burden to the economy as they have to be looked after. Even if they work, productivity levels are low. If they fall ill, the treatment is longer and costlier, and the recovery longer as against children who make a quick recovery after an illness," the professor said.

De Silva said of the one million Sri Lankans working in West Asia, 70 percent of them are women who were once the primary caretakers of elderly people. In 1947, the country's workforce was made up of 12 percent women with this figure rising to 37 percent in 1990.

"In the future, women will far outnumber men in the workforce," he said. "The elderly are facing many problems. Their main caretakers are going abroad, joining the local workforce or involved in higher education."

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