Defections brew trouble

The two main parties, the PA and the UNP, are in the process of finalising nomination lists to be handed over to the Commissioner of Elections for the December 5 general election.

Both these parties are determined to outdo each other in including persons of high calibre in their lists to woo the politically-matured voter.

The five former PA ministers – S. B. Dissanayake, G. L. Peiris, Mahinda Wijesekera, Lakshman Kiriella and Nandimithra Ekanayake – are likely to spearhead the campaign for the newly-formed United National Front, of which the UNP remains the key constituent party.

Mr. Dissanayake and Mr. Wijesekera are likely to head the Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts while Mr. Kiriella is likely to head the Kandy district list.

SLMC Leader Rauf Hakeem, too, will contest Kandy under the United National Front banner in a move that will make his task easier than at last year's elections where he managed to scrape through with much difficulty.

However, legally, all these bigwigs would contest under the UNP since the UNF has not received official recognition from the Elections Commissioner as a political party. 

Political analysts believe the October 10 mass defection from the PA camp to the UNP has put the UNP on a winning platform. A scrutiny of the election statistics will indicate that no party will get a two-thirds majority to solve the burning issues of the country and the December 5 election would prove futile in that respect. However, if the two parties come together in a post-election scenario, they would be in a position to solve these problems, foremost of them being the ethnic issue. But the question is – will they?

If these two parties had enough courage and the political will to do what is best for the country, they could have easily averted an election, which many believe is to be fought fiercely. It appears the campaign trail and elections per se would be violent since a volatile atmosphere prevails even before the nominations.

Will these two main parties join hands to solve the ethnic question after they contest the elections in a violent and hostile manner?

As things stand today, one cannot rule out deaths, arson and destruction of property in the run-up to the elections, on elections day and after. In the circumstances, by deciding to go for elections without making a genuine effort to form a government of national reconciliation, some analysts say the President has put the country on the edge of a great peril, economically and otherwise. The cost of elections itself is economically prohibitive, especially in the wake of the July 24 attacks on the Colombo airport and in view of mounting pressure from international financial institutions to curtail government expenditure.

In any event, the government should ensure that the elections are conducted peacefully, though this is easier said than done. The past few elections had been replete with not only violence, but also malpractices. It is high time political leaders resolved to create a new political culture where people will be able to freely exercise their franchise without fear. But unfortunately, things appear to be on the contrary. 

It appears now that the vicious cycle of political violence has already begun, the first victims of election terror being UNP's, Mahinda Ratnatilaka and Rohitha Bogollagama. Mr. Ratnatilaka's house was attacked while Mr. Bogollagama's party office in Nikeweratiya was set ablaze last week.

Though there were police inquiries into both these incidents, little progress has been made in arresting the culprits. 

The JVP, which has now been recognised as the third force in Sri Lankan politics, has shown some interest in promoting a violence-free election and its leaders had several meetings with PA leaders to achieve this objective. It is indeed encouraging to see a party which was synonymous with violence in the past, coming forward to create a new political culture. Its new image as a party that promotes democracy has won for it substantial support in the country. It is believed that its popularity has soared to such an extent that the UNP is determined to see that the Marxist party does not get more than ten seats it got at the last elections. In this effort, the UNP has launched a campaign targeting the JVP. 

The rise of the JVP has been gradual, but after it entered into a memorandum of understanding to avert the collapse of the PA administration and tried to implement progressive reforms, it has been catapulted into a formidable position.

When the UNP tabled the no-confidence motion in parliament in July, the JVP gave the impression that it was supportive of the move. The JVP had a somewhat cordial relationship with the UNP despite the fact that the previous UNP regime had crushed the JVP insurrection in the 1988-89 era. Some UNP stalwarts even visited the JVP headquarters in Colombo to obtain the signatures of JVP MPs to force the government to reopen parliament. But no sooner the JVP decided to give a new lease of life to the ailing PA than an angry UNP pooled all its resources to unleash scathing attacks on the JVP. The UNP was unable to bring in the no-confidence motion against the government in early September soon after the re-opening of Parliament due to the JVP backstabbing.

Now, the UNP has launched an all-out war against the JVP and some analysts believe that this could be a dangerous trend in time to come. The man behind this propaganda operation is the UNP's firebrand politician, Rajitha Senaratne.

The JVP, too, fired its salvos at the UNP and the independent media, which carried the UNP version of the so-called scandals. It challenged the independent media to publish the interviews they conducted with sprint queen Susanthika Jayasinghe who had a running battle with the then Sports Minister and now PA dissident group leader S.B. Dissanayake.

The JVP's challenge had no takers. Obviously it would be counter-productive for the UNP. Moreover, the independent media are full of interviews and discussions with Mr. Dissanayake.

The Wednesday night chat show with Mr. Dissanayake on the TNL television was thought-provoking, though at times, it appeared that he was pouring his heart out with a tinge of malice. Of course, Mr. Dissanayake had to defend himself as to how he built his luxurious house in the outskirts of his native place Hanguranketa.

He showed some architectural drawings to tell the audience that the house he built in Hanguranketa was not that expensive. He put down the price at 8 to 9 million rupees while the government ministers queried as to how he accumulated so much wealth during a short period of time. The government's price-tag on the house was substantially more than the value placed on it by Mr. Dissanayake, who has vowed to take legal action against Minister Mangala Samaraweera and the National Television the Rupavahini for filming the house and telecasting it. Mr. Dissanayake during this interview claimed that mismanagement and ill-timing were the main factors that had brought about economic disasters. He said the ministers had been mere onlookers in the face of a powerful executive presidency, which helped Chandrika Kumaratunga to virtually run a one-woman show.

None of the controversial cabinet papers was shown to them especially those that involved massive defence spending and major projects, he said adding that the ministers were groping in total darkness with regard to certain matters. 

If what Mr. Dissanayake said on TNL was true, then it raises several questions. What should be the responsibility of the ministers in such a situation and why didn't they protest? Does the Presidency wield so much of power that the incumbent could violate cabinet principles such as collective responsibility? 

It is important that the incumbent of the highest political office in the country acts with utmost responsibility. Again, if what Mr. Dissanayake states is the truth, the country won't be out of crisis even if a UNP government comes, because President Kumaratunga's term has five more years. If Mr. Dissanayake's allegations could be substantiated, they provide for ample reason to impeach the President.

Mr. Dissanayake said he along with ministers Peiris and Wijesekera had wasted more than seven precious years in trying to correct President Kumaratunga but failed.

However these same leaders have praised President Kumaratunga as the undisputed leader of Sri Lanka for the next decade or so. Another interesting question that arises is that having experienced her ways and attitudes for nearly six years, why did these politicians consent to carry on with the PA for another term.

No doubt that Mr. Dissanayake discharged his duties loyally during the past elections and won accolades from the President for the services he rendered. The UNP then accused him of indulging in election malpractices and wanted action taken against him.

The UNP's call for the setting up of a constitutional council and independent commissions for police and elections was intensified only after it received reports on the conduct of PA stalwarts such as Mr. Dissanayake and Anuruddha Ratwatte during last year's election.

Meanwhile, the defection in the PA ranks has caused dissension in the UNP ranks. Some UNP seniors are an unhappy lot. They fear the PA dissidents such as Mr. Dissanayake would hijack the party from them and complain that no steps had been taken by the party leadership so far to dispel their fears. "They defected alright, but they should be put in their place," one senior UNPer told this column.

Already the UNP leadership is facing problems in Matara, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya.

In Matara, Lakshman Yapa Abeywardene appears to be disturbed over the decision by the UNP to put former Minister Mahinda Wijesekera in charge of the district. Mr. Abeywardene met UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe to discuss the matter. The UNP leadership is trying to find a compromise formula by giving separate and distinct areas of political leadership to chairmen of district Balamandalayas and district leaders who head the list of candidates. But others argue that a chairman of the district Balamandalaya had always been the district leader.

In the Nuwara Eliya district also, there is a problem. Navin Dissanayake, elder son of the UNP stalwart Gamini Dissanayake, had a meeting with Mr. Wickremesinghe to discuss his problem. Mr. Dissanayake doesn't want to find himself to be left out and S.B. Dissanayake to be given a prominent cabinet portfolio in the event the PA dissident fails to secure the number one slot in Nuwara Eliya. But it is now doubtful whether S.B. Dissanayake would contest at all. However Mr. Wickremesinghe is reportedly adamant that S.B. Disssanayake should lead the Nuwara Eliya district.

In the meantime, the government wants to see S.B. Dissanayake defeated in the Nuwara Eliya district. The PA leadership is planning to field Lohan Ratwatte, a son of Minister Anuruddha Ratwatte, to match Mr. Dissanayake's capabilities. If Mr. Dissanayake takes up the challenge, the Nuwara Eliya district is likely to be a hotbed of violence during election time.

No doubt, Mr. Dissanayake will receive the backing of plantation strongman Arumugam Thondaman, but he too will face a tough task at elections because unlike in the past, the plantation people are divided into various political camps today. At the same time it is till not clear whether Mr. Thondaman and his newly formed plantations alliance would go solo or would back the UNP at the upcoming elections.

In Kandy, Keheliya Rambukwella and Tissa Attanayake are facing problems after the crossover of Lakshman Kiriella and in the Kurunegala district Gamini Jayawickrema Perera is opposing the appointment of Akila Kariyawasam as the organiser of Bingiriya and his appointment to Dambadeniya.

Besides all these, the most significant event of the week was the defection of former Speaker Anura Bandaranaike to the SLFP. Mr. Bandaranaike is back in the SLFP after seven years.

Mr. Bandaranaike who once led the SLFP in parliament as opposition leader, joined the UNP cabinet of President D. B. Wijetunga as Minister of Higher Education and in 1994 sat in the Opposition along with Gamini Dissanayake and present UNP leader Mr. Wickremesinghe.

A day before Mr. Bandaranaike's crucial crossover to the SLFP, Mr. Bandaranaike had a meeting with Mr. Wickremesinghe at the former's residence.

There, Mr. Wickremesinghe had reportedly offered Mr. Bandaranaike to contest the Gampaha district but he declined.

Obviously, it would be difficult for Mr. Bandaranaike to be with the UNP after several UNP Parliamentarians had together questioned his credibility as the Speaker.

In the circumstances, Mr. Bandaranaike is more comfortable with his sister President Kumaratunga and will be contesting the Bandaranaike base Attanagalle. Mr. Bandaranaike intends to top the list in Gampaha where the Bandaranaikes representing the SLFP always win.

Mr. Bandaranaike also wrote a parting letter to his longstanding friend Mr. Wickremesinghe. The letter was so nicely worded that it came in for praise by many moderates in politics.

However, some people in the UNP and the SLFP describe him as a misguided missile in the Bandaranaike family. He has a history of breaking away from his mother Prime Minister Sirima Bandaranaike and diametrically opposing his sister Chandrika at elections.

It was after the demise of Ms. Bandaranaike that Mr. Bandaranaike and Ms. Kumaratunga came together. Later, he was made the Parliament Speaker as a compromise candidate.

Mr. Bandaranaike's role as the Speaker came in for severe criticism in the UNP circles especially after the UNP planned to bring down the government through a motion of no confidence.

Some prominent UNPers are of the opinion that Mr. Bandaranaike's departure is a blessing in disguise for the UNP, because Mr. Bandaranaike has had little luck in a government.

It was quite recently that Lakshman Kiriella referred to him as a Jonah but Mr. Bandaranaike snapped back saying that Kiriella pleaded with him for more than a dozen times to get him a place in the cabinet.

In the PA, there is some bitterness over the reappearance of Mr. Bandaranaike. Possibly Minister Mahinda Rajapakse feels it most because the PA stalwarts think that another Bandaranaike is out there to take over the stewardship of the party. Bandaranaikes have been at the helm of the SLFP for 50 years now and the rank and file thinks that the time is right for a change.