Southern unity key to Lankan peace

By Anita Pratap

Gujarat makes us hang our heads in shame as once again India is reduced to an ugly theatre of atavistic hatreds. All the gains we made through mature diplomacy and restrained deployment dissipate as the world sees us as the conjoined twin of an unstable and fanatical Pakistan.

Since the 1970s, India has been readying for a take off. Then emergency happened. In the 1980s, the anti-Sikh riots tripped us badly, in the 1990s, demolition of the Babri Masjid, the Mumbai riots and serial blasts were setbacks that took years to heal, correct and stabilize. Indeed, we have been taking so many decades to take off that India Inc. must have the longest runway in the world!

We love harping about our great past. We love harping about our future potential. But our stumbling block is our present. If only we could climb out of the rut of our present, we could harbour hopes of getting to the future. Instead, the middle class knows where its future lies and it isn't in India. The fastest growing export in the last three decades must surely be the swelling ranks of the NRIs (Non-Resident Indians). Is it any wonder then that nowadays Bollywood, BJP politics and even the Budget is tailor-made to suit the wants of expatriate Indians?

Our small but beautiful neighbour, Sri Lanka is burdened by its tragic flaw. Pacts are made only to be broken. When one warring party finally comes around to offer the olive branch, the other whips out the swords. One side always manages to let the other side down, ever since this island nation broke free from the British and had to resolve the Tamil-Sinhalese divide. Up until 1982, the Sinhalese didn't fulfil their part of the deal. Since 1985, when the LTTE walked out of the Thimpu talks, the Tigers have been seen as the wreckers of peace. Now the pendulum threatens to swing again in the other direction. The recent Norway-brokered ceasefire agreement is historic. This time around, the Tigers seem willing to play ball. The tragedy could be that the Sinhalese establishment may let the ball slip through its fingers.

A Tiger doesn't change its stripes. LTTE boss V. Prabhakaran may be 47 years old, but there is nothing to suggest he is tiring. Still, the man has tremendous foresight. Back in the 1980s he had said to me in one of his interviews that his ability to carve a separate Tamil homeland would depend considerably on international factors. Post September 11 international climate does not favour him or his pursuit. Under US leadership, the world has united against terrorism. But give a few years, and this united international coalition against terrorism will weaken, develop cracks. Already countries like France and Ireland are ruffled by the US-supported Israeli strikes in Palestine. 

But Prabhakaran will play ball now because he is under tremendous international pressure. Tamils and Sinhalese may argue till kingdom come that one man's freedom fighter is another man's terrorist, but India, the US and Britain have gone ahead and banned the LTTE. This has cramped their movement, functioning and even fund collection. Prabhakaran knows the only way to salvage his image and his organization is to make a bid for peace.

Unfortunately, the Sri Lankan establishment is now badly fractured. They are in throes of "cohabitation", a prickly, unstable situation where arch rivals, President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, must share power. The ceasefire agreement was Ranil's triumph, but for that very reason the President is not pleased. She has already reacted angrily saying she was not consulted before the agreement was signed, that it violates Sri Lanka's sovereignty, that she has the power to wreck it. 

The agreement is a turning point that has the potential to head Sri Lanka towards peace. But for that to happen, there has to be political vision and unity. Dissension and one-upmanship can tragically veer Sri Lanka to the path of self-destruction.

The second threat to the agreement is the difficulties that always lie in implementation. If red tape and lack of will and determination stall the enforcement of the ceasefire provisions, trouble is inevitable. And the third problem is Sri Lanka's war-battered economy that has slipped into negative growth.

Economic frustration and rising unemployment in the south can resurrect the Sinhalese insurrection that had wreaked havoc in the 1970s and again in the late 1980s. A Sri Lankan government, which has its hands full with the Tamil problem in the north, can hardly cope with the opening of a new warfront in the south. In the circumstances, all Prabhakaran needs to do is sit back in his jungle and watch the troubles brewing in the south, troubles that have the potential to wreck this agreement. And if that happens, violence is inevitable.

In early 1983, I wrote an article on an astrologer in Chennai called D.V. Krishna who designs corporate logos. He warned me that Sunday, the magazine I was then working for, was doomed. Its masthead's numerological vibrations were all wrong. It would be beset with labour disputes and would eventually close down. The prediction came true. He also warned that Sri Lanka must change its flag - as long as it had a lion standing on three legs with the fourth holding up a sword, it would be plagued by instability and bloodshed. Rationalists would scoff, the superstitious would advocate a flag change and the pragmatists would say if all options fail, give astrology a try. The solution probably lies in self-correction. But then flaws would not be tragic if solutions were easy to implement.

(Anita Pratap is the author of "lsland of Blood - frontline reports from Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and other South Asian flashpoints". She wrote this article exclusive to The Sunday Times. She can be contacted at post@anitapratap.com)