US
stock market takes severe beating
Corporate bubble bursts
NEW YORK- The US stock market, long considered an economic
barometer of the fluctuating fortunes of world capitalism, took a
severe beating last week even as bankruptcies and corporate failures
continued to plague the country currently on the verge of a recession.
The American
economy, which was resilient enough to survive a rash of terrorist
attacks last September, is now being threatened by corporate fraud,
malfeasance and accounting jugglery. President George W. Bush says
he is determined to stop corporations cooking the books. But will
his recipe to clean up the corporate world work?
The stock market
has been on a roller coaster ride while some of the big multibillion
dollar corporations have gone bankrupt leaving hundreds and thousands
of investors and workers out in the cold. The British satirical
magazine, Private Eye, ran a caricature of one the most wanted men
in America, Osama bin Laden, seriously thinking of switching jobs-
provided he is alive and well and still living in the Tora Bora
mountains. "Forget terrorism," he says, "I am taking
up accountancy". The moral of the story is that the US economy
is being more severely damaged these days by accountants than by
terrorists. The front-pages of newspapers are adorned with pictures
of corporate bigwigs- mostly chief financial officers, chief accountants
and heads of accounting firms- being taken away in handcuffs. Since
the world economy is so intricately linked to the American economy,
the repercussions of corporate crime are likely to have a negative
impact worldwide. According to a UN report released last week, the
US economic downturn is having a ripple effect not only on the economies
of developing nations but also on Eastern and Western Europe.
The collective
economic growth rate of the 15 countries comprising the European
Union (EU) is expected to average about 1.3 percent this year: down
from 1.7 percent in 2001 and 3.4 percent in 2000. The Eastern European
nations are expected to register an average growth rate of 2.8 percent
compared with 3.2 percent in 2001 and 3.8 percent in 2000. "The
outlook for the global economy, including Europe, is crucially dependent
on the assumption that there will be sustained and gradually strengthening
recovery in the United States, led by domestic demand," the
report said. This is expected to stimulate domestic activity in
the rest of the world, including Europe, via exports and the spillover
effects from increasing business and consumer confidence in the
United States. But a recession in the American economy after the
September 11 terrorist attacks- along with the current decline in
the US dollar and the financial scandals in corporate America- has
undermined investor confidence in the United States. According to
the UN study, the US economy is expected to grow by 1.6 percent
in 2002: up from 1.2 percent in 2001, but down from 4.1 percent
in 2000.
This situation
has been aggravated further by the recession in the world's second
and third largest economies, namely Japan and Germany. Japan will
have a growth rate of minus 1.1 percent this year and Germany 0.7
percent. Of the 95 developing countries regularly monitored by the
UN Secretariat, 37 experienced a decline in per capita output in
2001 (compared with 25 in 2000), and only 17, half the number of
2000, recorded an increase of more than 3.0 percent. The countries
worst affected last year included Argentina (minus 4.5 percent growth
rate), Iraq (minus 6.0 percent), Turkey (minus 8.0 percent) and
Zimbabwe (minus 7.5 percent). The only exceptions were China and
India with growth rates of over 7.0 percent and 5.0 percent respectively.
Both countries
are expected to continue with high growth rates in 2002 and 2003.
Even as the American economy was on a tailspin last week, President
Bush signed new legislation against corporate fraud which he described
as "the most far reaching reforms of American business practices
since the time of Franklin Delano Roosevelt." "The era
of low standards and false profits is over," he warned. "No
boardroom in America is above or beyond the law." Noble thoughts,
no doubt. But even the new legislation has drawn deep scepticism
in a country governed by the age-old maxim:
" What's
good for General Motors is good for America." Both the ruling
Republican Party and the opposition Democratic Party are beholden
to big business. The Republican Party convention which preceded
the last presidential elections cost over $50 million, while the
Democratic Party convention cost about $35 million - virtually all
of which was underwritten by corporate America. Meanwhile, the decline
in the US dollar, however, has been accompanied by a rise in the
euro, the currency of 12 EU countries. The euro, which fetched only
82.25 cents on the dollar in October 2000, is now at virtual parity
with the US currency. But there is one consolation though: the US
dollar still fetches 1.7 million Turkish liras. When we next holiday
in Istanbul, armed with a huge stack of 100 dollar bills, it may
be wiser to buy the entire hotel rather than check into one.
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