It now might be a chess game between the UNF and the PA, with a major question as to who would checkmate whom in the long drawn process.

The UNF government has been plunged into a dilemma-unable to clip the President's powers to dissolve Parliament and facing a threat to its majority in Parliament because of the crisis among the SLMC's 12 MPs. Several government ministers are known to be pressing for a snap election through a resolution passed in Parliament, but there are doubts now as to whether the government could muster a majority even for that resolution.

The government presented the 19th Amendment on the basis it wanted stability to pursue the peace process and its economic policy. It said the President's power to dissolve parliament after December 5 posed a serious threat to its stability. To obtain a two thirds majority for this move to take away the President's powers the government added a clause to the 19th Amendment to give a free vote to the MPs. But the Supreme Court ruled that such a clause was illegal and unenactable because it applied to a specific bill only. The Court said such a conscience vote could be brought in if it applied to every bill or motion.

However article 99 would have to be drastically changed to accommodate such a provision in the constitution and it could work both ways without MPs being penalised for not falling in line with the party whip.

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe told reporters after the official announcement of the Supreme Court verdict in Parliament that the government needed time to study the situation before deciding on alternative moves to ensure stability.

Some of the UNPers have expressed the view that they have no alternative but to go for an election and return with a fresh mandate and a bigger majority.

But there are doubts whether the UNF government could go for an election right now. Could the UNF muster the necessary 113 votes to bring a resolution in Parliament to force the President to dissolve it? It might be difficult for the UNF, since the SLMC is in disarray. The party leadership is unable to summon a meeting of the entire parliamentary group in view of differences on policy matters.

Though SLMC's political activists were assigned with the task of regrouping the rebels and arranging a meeting with the party leadership the crisis meeting did not take place till late Wednesday. The emissaries who scuttled between party leader Rauff Hakeem and rebel leader A.L.M. Athaullah could not produce much.

The rebels are adamant that their demand for a South-East Muslim unit in a final settlement to the ethnic conflict be accepted by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. They expect the Prime Minister to give them a written assurance.

Rumours doing the political rounds suggest Mr. Athaullah has established links with the People's Alliance and is considering the option of moving to topple the government.
Mr. Athaullah has reportedly been offered a cabinet portfolio in the event of a PA government coming back to office and some of the UNF negotiators who met him are known to be trying to match that offer.

The move by some UNF leaders to go for a snap general elections provoked a scornful reaction from PA frontliners who saw a terrible contradiction in those who tried to take away the President's powers for early dissolution but were now going for an earlier dissolution themselves.

The other big question is whether the Tamil National Alliance and the Ceylon Workers Congress would support the UNF government to go for a snap election.

Can the TNA support the idea of a general election when it opposed even local elections in the North-East last month, claiming it might hinder the peace process? There are also reports that if a snap general election is held the LTTE might push for most if not all the present TNA MPs to be replaced.

But the TNA appears to be in a difficult situation itself because rejection of a snap election and the possible instability from it might cause bigger problems for the peace process and the TNA.

If elections are held some TNA circles are confident they would return with a better mandate to strengthen the hand of Prime Minister Mr. Wickremesinghe. But the Prime Ministers immediate problem is the SLMC and the interpretation of Article 70 of the constitution which might go against his wishes and plans.

Another vital factor would be the enormous cost of a third general election in three years and the effect it could have on the economy. So eventually the choice before the government might be to put the country before the party.

Even if the decision is taken to pass a resolution calling for the dissolution of parliament and thereafter a General Election the President is likely to oppose such a move. Her position is that the power vested in her is entirely discretionary and she is not bound by a parliamentary resolution to dissolve.

According to PA lawyers, the entire article dealing with powers and procedures (Article 70) gives discretionary powers to the President. They argue that it is not expressly mentioned that the President should dissolve Parliament within the first year upon a resolution by Parliament since elsewhere in the constitution it is expressly mentioned that the President shall dissolve Parliament if the appropriation bill is defeated twice within the first year. Then of course she has no option but to dissolve parliament, a well known PA lawyer argued.

While the political arena is in confusion two former Judges of the Supreme Court had come out with what appears to be a strong argument that the President is not bound by any resolution by Parliament to dissolve it. The two former judges, S. W. Walpita and R. S. Wanasundera said the resolution in Parliament requesting the President to dissolve Parliament is only meant to remove the fetter placed on the President during the first year of Parliament.

The two judges say, "the question is can a resolution by Parliament compel the President to dissolve Parliament or has the President the freedom to dissolve or not to dissolve Parliament as she pleases. Some argue the President is compelled to do so, if such a resolution is passed, others say no. Our view is there is no compulsion on the President to do so, the President is now free to act," the judges said.

In their view, a resolution can only remove the fetter placed on the President during the first year and the President is free to do whatever she believes is right.

Eventually this widely and variedly interpreted clause might come up before the Supreme Court for a ruling which would have to be accepted by all.

The view offered by the two former Supreme Court Judges is diametrically opposed to the view expressed by Finance Minister and constitutional expert K. N. Choksy in this column last week. Mr. Choksy argued that the President's power to dissolve Parliament within the first year when the earlier parliament was prematurely dissolved, is transferred to Parliament.

The UNP's political affairs committee discussed the judgment and the options available to the party. The party discussed the implications of allowing the "conscience vote" to apply to all bills.

The party may now couple it with the committee system proposed by the government some time back and bring it once again before the Supreme Court as the 18th Amendment to the Constitution.

President Chandrika Kumaratunga is taking a different view. She told the PA Parliamentary group that the judgment was a victory for the party but she re-iterated the pledge given to the Speaker that she had no intention of dissolving Parliament at this stage. The President also said that if the government went for a referendum she would be ready for it.

If the Supreme Court Judgment were a victory for the President the same could not be said for her decision to cause an international stir by cancelling the meeting with the Norwegian peace facilitators led by Deputy Foreign Minister Vidar Helgesen.

The Norwegians are not likely to take too kindly to this though Mr. Helgesen told a news agency he was not too concerned about the president's move. The Presidential Secretariat claimed that the cancellation of this crucial meeting was because of the President's tight schedule. But the reason given is not to be taken too seriously. Some PA frontliners say there was a growing feeling in the President's camp and the PA that the Norwegians were overstepping their facilitatory role.

However, as a compromise the Norwegians had the opportunity of meeting Presidential advisor Lakshman Kadirgamar on Wednesday night when Mr. Kadirgamar reportedly took up core issues including the nature of the state, merger of the North and East and human rights.

Problems are also arising over the terms of reference drawn up by the Norwegians for the Joint Task Force.

SLMC leader Mr. Hakeem and his close assistants who went through the terms of reference had come up with new suggestions on the matter.

SLMC leader Mr. Rauff Hakeem is saying that the development work of the JTF should not interfere with the work of three ministries already setup to deal with such matters. It also proposes two units under the JTF for the North and the East.

According to the Norwegian draft some of the key factors of the JTF are:

*The JTF shall be a designated agency reporting to the Prime Minister's Office.

*The JTF shall consist of three members representing the government and three the LTTE. One of the members selected by each party shall be a member of the delegation attending the peace talks. The Norwegian Government shall be represented as the facilitator of the JTF.

*The JTF shall meet as and when necessary, however, not less than once every month. The venue of the meetings shall alternate between Colombo and Kilinochchi.

* The JTF shall be supported by a secretariat known as the 'JTF Secretariat'.

*The role of the JTF is to take decisions necessary to effectively and efficiently accomplish the mandate defined by the terms of reference. The JTF has three functional attributes; the first, as a policy formulation entity, and the second as a partnership for resource mobilisation, and the third as a selection and oversight body on implementation.

* the JTF shall formulate policy guidelines for identification of needs, prioritisation of efforts and beneficiary selection processes relating to rehabilitation and reconstruction activity. The policy guideline shall be the basis for funding allocations.

*The JTF shall establish dialogue with donor agencies and NGOs as a collective entity at all times.

* The JTF shall present from time to time plans and proposals to donor agencies, bilaterally or at donor forums to mobilise resources for rehabilitation and reconstruction initiatives.

* The JTF shall recognise the mandate of the Department of External Resources (DER) as the principal and co-ordinating agency of the government. The Dept. of External Resources will be the sole entity authorised to enter into contractual obligations relating to loan or grant assistance on behalf of the government.

*The Dept. will designate a senior official as the 'Donor Liaison Officer' to the JTF. This officer will be required to advise the JTF on formalities and procedural requirements of the department and assist in expediting the disbursement of donor funds.

*The JTF shall establish and administer a fund. All contributions of an unspecified nature would be maintained in this fund. The JTF shall make allocations from the fund based on an agreed criteria.

*The JTF shall regularly monitor individual projects to ensure conformity with workplans and timelines. The JTF will have the option of securing the services of internationally reputed firms of consultants to evaluate progress activity and adherence to agreements by implementing agencies.

*The JTF shall establish an audit process to prevent excesses or corrupt practices in implementation. The JTF will out source an independent auditor with the concurrence of the respective donors and the Auditor-General's Department to conduct financial audits.

*The JTF shall furnish a monthly report to the delegations at the peace talks on the decisions taken and an update of all activities undertaken by the JTF and the JTF Secretariat.

On the party political front one of the key issues is the crisis in the SLMC. The nine dissident MPs have fired out a tough letter to the Prime Minister. It states:

"Requests for the rights of the North-East Muslims

The Indo-Sri Lanka accord in the pretext of finding a solution for the ethnic problem merged the Northern and Eastern provinces without adhering to the aspirations of the Muslims, thus creating a new problem ending in them being enslaved.

"The then UNP government proclaimed that the merger was a temporary phenomenon and that they will look after the well being of the Muslims and that through a referendum in one year's time they will be relieved of this misfortune.

"Further, the Muslims who are one of the communities of this country were driven into shame when the Government asked them to speak with India in matters connected to this accord. It is pertinent to note that this accord in fact had failed to accept that two Tamil speaking communities with equal rights live in the North East.

"You are well aware that the Muslims until today have been left in the lurch being subject to wily and brutish thoughts and atrocities of several armed groups. It is due to this act that the Muslims of these area have lost confidence in the UNP.

"However, the SLMC, having faith in your leadership and strengthening this faith among the Muslims played a major role to bring you to the helm.

"You are also aware that a referendum, had it been held as stipulated in the accord, would have led to the allegiance of the Tamils with the Muslims with a need for complying satisfaction to the latter, which in turn would have paved way for an opportunity for the Muslims to be in an advantageous position. A necessity would have arisen for both communities to discuss issues with compromise.

"We relish peace in abundance. We pray for the securing of the legitimate rights of our brother Tamil community. We also pray for prosperity in the country. The Muslims, like all others who have always been for peace cannot be relegated as usual to be used as a curry leaves community in order to satisfy others, even in the peace moves initiated by you.

"This, at this juncture necessitated the Muslims who have claims for equal rights place before the Government some of their demands.

"It is fair by all concerned that in the event of any accord taking place between the government and any party, it should pave the way to resolve the injustice meted out on the Muslims in the Indo-Sri Lanka accord. "We strongly believe that you will not disclaim the fact that it is your bounden duty to implement such an accord. Hence with a huge confidence we are placing the following demands with regard to the rights of the North East Muslims:-

1. Muslims should be made aware of the stance taken by your good self with regard to the permanent merger of the now temporarily merged North East.

2. If the permanent merger is the one that is envisaged by the Government, a firm declaration towards satisfying the Muslim community of the North East for a separate power sharing unit has to be made by your good self.

3. In the event of an Interim Administration is figured and if it is so made for the merged North East, an affirmation by your good self has to be made to the effect that provisions for a separate one for the Muslims as mentioned above will be ensured.

4. Establishing Special Security Units in each of the Muslim areas in the North East to ensure the safety and security of their lives, properties and resources should be assured by your good self.

5 At this juncture of establishing the Special Joint Task Force for the development of the North East and if such a Task Force is meant for the merged North East without separate ones for each province, another separate Task Force carving out the Muslim majority Divisional Secretary areas in the North East must be created."

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