The southern parts of the country which constitute more than two-thirds of the Sri Lanka's land area offer a complex picture. Its complexities are far difficult to be understood and if the LTTE leadership is yearning for a durable peace and is really committed to peace, it should not unnecessarily dabble with the politics of the south. Let the LTTE analyse, talk and do whatever for its own consumption, but when it makes public statements, they make things difficult for the government.

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has said that the path to peace is an arduous one. When he said this, he probably had in his mind opposition not only from the PA but also within the UNF. The LTTE therefore should realise that the peace process is a delicate exercise as far as the south is concerned. In the present context even if the government wanted to hold an election, its critics would brand it as an LTTE stooge.

The public perception on the LTTE tongue lashing on the President and the subsequent call for a general election is that the government is prepared to surrender the rights of the Sinhalese and the rest of the country to accommodate the LTTE agenda.

Even if it is not the case, the LTTE has given enough ammunition for the PA to hit out at the government. Moreover, the LTTE statement came at a time when the government was facing multiple problems on many fronts. The SLMC crisis and the legal setback to the 18th and 19th amendments were some of them.

The LTTE should not adopt a position separating the President from the government because the President is not only head of the state but also head of the government according to the constitution.

At the same time the LTTE should be able to discuss matters with any party in power whether, it be the UNF or the PA regardless of their policies, if they are sincere enough. In such circumstances the fears expressed by President Chandrika Kumaratunga are valid and reasonable.

At a recent press briefing in Colombo, former minister Nimal Siripala de Silva echoed the President's view when he said that Mr. Balasingham's statement was a matter of security concern for the President.

The security of the President is to be stepped up in view of this statement.

The PA may be over-reacting to the statement, as it is unlikely that the LTTE would resort to terrorism or assassinations given the present global and domestic political scenarios.

As it appears, the President or the People's Alliance will not obstruct any peaceful settlement to the ethnic conflicts, though the President has expressed reservations about certain steps taken by the UNF government. The president's view reflect the southern fears that the LTTE has not given up its ultimate goal of achieving a separate state though it now speaks of a federal set up.

We could talk about political models as long as there is mutual trust between the parties. But the question many ask even after the two direct meetings in Thailand is can the LTTE be trusted.

The LTTE which proclaimed that it would only talk about the setting up of an interim administration during the first round of talks following the signing of the memorandum of understanding with the government has conveniently gone back on its word. The question that arises is whether they are not interested in an interim administration for the NorthEast.

The simple answer is that they have already set up their administration in the North and the East and the need to discuss the matter has not arisen so far.

Most of the obstacles for an interim administration have been withdrawn.

If an interim administration is set up the LTTE would not have a free hand, because it would also consist of Muslim and Sinhala representatives; the LTTE would be compelled to consider their point of view as well. Moreover, once the interim council is set up, the government's writ will prevail over the entire North and East.

In this context, the government should expedite the setting up of an interim administration with the help of all political parties representing the North and the East.

To-date the people in the South feel that the government had been giving in to LTTE demands far in excess of what is necessary and therefore it is now the LTTE's turn to show its willingness to work within a legal framework acceptable to all Sri Lankans.

Another point to ponder is the setting up of the Joint Task Force to oversee the development programmes in the North and the East.

The LTTE is apparently not in favour of the Norwegian proposal that it should come under the purview of the Prime Minister's Office. It clearly shows that the LTTE is averse to anything flowing from the centre or subject itself to the dictates of the centre.

The LTTE wants the JTF to be independent. This was the bone of contention for the SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem who participated in the talks as a government delegate amidst crisis in his own party.

The SLMC earlier wanted two separate sub units for the North and the East while the Joint Task Force would function as the apex body.

When the LTTE insisted that the JTF should be independent and it should not come under the purview of the Prime Minister's Office the government delegates were baffled. The SLMC advisers by this time had informed Mr. Hakeem that he should stage a walk out if the LTTE is not coming to terms with the SLMC.

However, eventually a compromise formula prevailed with both sides agreeing to accommodate two SLMC members in the sub-committee on North-East rehabilitation which would replace the JTF. It was also agreed that the sub-committee would come under the purview of two peace delegations.

It is a major gain for the SLMC. The LTTE will have four members in the committee while the government will have four, including the two SLMC nominees.

The government is likely to nominate Peace Secretariat Chief Bernard Gunatilleke and Defence Secretary Austin Fernando while the SLMC is yet to decide on its nominees. Most of the SLMCers are of the view that the two nominees should be from the East.

Besides the composition of the sub-committee, the other important area is the disbursement of funds in a more transparent manner with proper auditing and continuous monitoring of the development work.

In another development, the mini-donor conference in Oslo on November 25 is assuming added significance, as LTTE chief negotiator Mr. Balasingham will for the first time be meeting Prime Minister Wickremesinghe.

They are likely to take up some key issues on the sidelines of the mini-donor summit, which would be attended by more than 20 developed countries, including the United States and Britain.

Besides the sub-committee on the rehabilitation work, the two sides meeting in Thailand also agreed on another sub-committee that would set in motion a process of military de-escalation. This was another positive development that gave the UNF government some thing to talk about.

The day the government's chief negotiator Minister G. L. Peiris arrived in the country, he visited the Malwatte and Asgiriya Mahanayakes to brief them on the developments. Though the Malwatte prelate had some questions about the 200-year jail term for the Tiger leader Prabhakaran, the Asgiriya prelate blessed both the government and the LTTE for their efforts to restore law and order in the country.

Minister Peiris told the Malwatte prelate that there had been instances where governments had spoken to rebel groups while they had been subjected to judicial inquiry.

However, the LTTE is not prepared to take the 200-year jail term imposed on the Tiger leader by the High Court kindly. The LTTE described the judgment as absurd and said that even the Sri Lankan government could be tried for war crimes.

Many questions have been raised over the timing of the judgment. There is speculation that the government did not want the judgment delivered on the day the talks were to begin with the LTTE.

In the morning on the day the judgment was delivered, it was observed that an accused who was in custody was not present and the sentence was put off for the afternoon session. But when the accused was not produced again the court went ahead with the judgment while the judgment on the accused who was not present was put off for another day.

There were rumours in the political circles as to whether the government had a hand in not producing the accused in court in a bid to prompt a postponement.

However the court delivered the judgment prompting criticism by the LTTE. Certain anti-LTTE lobbyists are now planning to file a writ of mandamus in the Court of Appeal compelling the Director CID to arrest the LTTE leaders when they are passing through Katunayake since they felt that the criticism by the LTTE leader of the judgment is a clear case for a contempt under the Sri Lankan law.

Some legal experts are of the view that the government has already accepted the existence of a de facto state in the North East and the views expressed by the Tiger leaders cannot be construed as contempt. To support this argument, several legal luminaries have cited the case of General Franco of Spain before he became the de jure leader of Spain.

In their view, Mr. Balasingham has done his home work on international law when he proclaimed that there is already an administration running in their territory. He has stressed that the LTTE has is own administration, courts, police and an armed force.

When Mr. Balasingham uttered all these, there was no response from the Sri Lankan side, which means that they had unwittingly accepted this situation.

Now, the fear among the political circles is whether the LTTE is going to get direct financial assistance following the Oslo conference.

However, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe had allayed fears saying the Oslo conference aid would be presented to Parliament by way of a supplementary estimate. He has given this assurance at the government group meeting on Wednesday.

Minister Peiris told the group meeting that though the opposition levelled charges against the government, it had failed to discuss key political issues, while the government delegation had taken up several matters with the LTTE.

Prime Minister Wickremesinghe called upon the government parliamentarians to be present in parliament every day to take up challenges thrown by the opposition, during the Budget debate.

He said a government delegation including Ministers Peiris, Hakeem and Milinda Moragoda would also be in Oslo along with him to attend the mini donor meeting.

However, the government parliamentarians were not very happy since the government's second Budget failed to address the grievances faced by the Samurdhi recipients. They discussed these matters on the corridors of the parliamentary complex. They were also concerned about the de-centralised budget allocations for opposition MPs.

The UNP MPs from the south were more worried about this since the JVP too would be benefited by the government allocation. Their complain was that while they have to spend money on bigger development projects, the JVP would spend this money on small rural development schemes which would have a greater impact.

The UNP MPs say they will have to put an extra effort to sustain the popularity of the government against hyperactive JVP propaganda.

Meanwhile, President Kumaratunga addressing the PA parliamentary group on Tuesday said that she as the head of the state proposed to take several crucial steps in the near future and that she was expecting the support of all PA MPs.

"We are prepared to support the government when they do the right things. They cannot get our co-operation by holding out threats," the President said.

The President's remarks may be a cause for concern for the UNPers.

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