Political Column

Political Column

There is no peace without economics
By Our Political Editor
There was a zip in the Prime Minister's tone this week, as he told his Cabinet of Ministers at the pre Cabinet sessions that the Norwegians have informed the government after consultations with the LTTE that the latter is ready to come back to the negotiating table.

However he said that the LTTE has made certain requests, which the government needs in the main accede to. In other words, instead of tap dancing around the issue the government seems to be required now to put concrete proposals on the table - and these proposals of course would deal most probably with an Interim Administration for the North and East.

The legal ramifications etc., dealing with an Interim Administration will therefore be the agenda for the talks once they materialise. S.P. Thamilselvan, the man in the Wanni (next to the other man in the Wanni) will be emplaning this week for London to talk to Anton Balasingham, the LTTE chief negotiator, on the future course of talks. He will also be obviously carrying his Commander-in-chief's messages to Balasingham on how the 'peace process' should evolve in the near future.

Seiichiro Otsuka, the Japanese Ambassador in Colombo and Valerie Raymond the Canadian High Commissioner in Colombo were the two others who called on Thamilselvan in the Wanni, and the message that came loud and clear to both these envoys was that the LTTE's return to the negotiating table is subject to the grant of an Interim Administration.

Basically the government quite apart from what the LTTE thinks about it, seems to be confident that the Prime Minister had scored in his recent travels abroad, particularly during the run-up to and after the Donor Conference in Japan.

There was a certain upbeat-ness in the UNP ranks on this issue, but that does not mean that there was no room for some discordant notes. These discordant notes were not against the Prime Minister. To make a long story short, the Minister of Consumer Affairs Ravi Karunanayake said that while the Prime Minister is scoring in his travels abroad, it was in bad taste that some others who are trying to steal the kudos from him on the peace process are now putting up sniper points.

He said that putting up sniper points this way was a vote of no-confidence on the peace process, and was ludicrous coming from those who want to take the kudos from the gains made in the peace process. There seemed however to be some endorsement of this position from a number of Ministers present, and these included Rajitha Senaratne, John Amaratunga and Tilak Marapana to name a few. While everything seems to boil down to whether the Interim Administration would materialise or not, a larger analysis of that issue would indicate that there are other variables that need to be taken into consideration before there can be any real speculation about this Interim Administration issue.

The main variable apart from the LTTE's reaction would no doubt be the Indian factor. It has almost been an open secret that India has not been too fond of having the Tigers running the show, just South of their border so to speak. There was very blunt reportage that it was India that scuttled -- via the RAW -- a substantial Interim Administration package when it was proposed by the government before the so called Apex Body proposals was sent.

As if to egg the Indians on, EPDP leader Douglas Devananda was in India telling anybody who would listen that it will not be in anybody's interest to grant an Interim Administration to the LTTE. Devananda had lengthy talks with Bragesh Mishra the National Security advisor.

However, there was a general feeling within government that other issues such as adverse economic issues should not be allowed to get in the way of peace which is why the economy needs to be consolidated. Ministers also pointed out that economic gains should be shown wherever necessary and not just the gains of peace. This they felt was the way to sustain popular support for the difficult peace process.

To this end, the government plans a concerted effort, which will rely on what was broadly termed a 'political agenda''. This political agenda will incorporate job creation investment and a membership drive for the UNP, eradication of corruption etc. etc.
The necessity for this according to the planners, is that the UNF's development agenda so far has been very ad hoc and unplanned, since all the UNF's eggs seemed to be in the peace basket.

The realization now is that peace will gather momentum and the process will stay in place only if there are economic gains and solid social gains that the masses will obtain as a result of the peace. Therefore the government plans to kick start this 'political agenda'' starting from the UNP convention in Embilipitiya yesterday.

To be allied or not to be?
What is the real low-down on the JVP-PA alliance? A lot of political analysts were mulling over this question perhaps because there has been too little political analysis on the issue in the first place.

There seems to be trouble putting the alliance into shape. There were discussions last week, in which the JVP leadership and the PA's political elite including the President, and ex-Ministers Lakshman Kadirgamar, Mangala Samaraweera, Nimal Siripala De Silva and others such as Anura Bandaranaike participated.

It was obvious at this meeting that their real problems were over the Secretaryship and the Chairmanship of a planned JVP-PA alliance. Nimal Siripala Silva was among those who very strongly opposed the JVP being given any of these key posts, and when the President suggested that the National organisers post be given to the JVP there were strong protests from the JVP quarter. Party leader Tilvin Silva was of the opinion that the UNP for instance had a different structure in which the party leader was independent from the party chairman and party secretary.

But even such a structure was opposed by Nimal Siripala de Silva, and he came in for flak from Anura Bandaranaike, who accused him of playing into the hands of the UNP. This led to some disagreement between Bandaranaike and Silva. However other SLFPers present swear no such exchange took place at all.The fact that whatever took place was before the JVP leadership which was present amused no one, particularly some of the other party elite such as Samaraweera and Amunugama.

What is the UNP's reaction, for instance, to a possible SLFP-JVP combine? Some querying into the UNP's inner sanctum's views on the matter indicated that the UNP would in fact welcome a SLFP-JVP alliance for the simple reason that that would be anathema for the long time party faithful of the SLFP.

They were of the view that the fact that the SLFP-JVP combine was a vote machine was only an arithmetical calculation. In realpolitik , they were of the view that there can be no advantage in it for the PA because the SLFP faithful will not approve of a JVP-SLFP alliance which will of course be the end of the PA.

The realpolitik of the situation they felt was that the JVP and the SLFP together will be a JVP influenced alliance which will be anathema to the traditional supporter of the SLFP. This they felt was quite different from the people voting separately for the JVP and the PA which of course will add up to a substantial number of votes as it happened during the last general election. Some went to the extreme position of saying that this will be the end for the SLFP as people know it -- which is why the UNP should try and goad the SLFP and the JVP to get together.

The President was indeed making overtures to the LTTE in the expectation that if there is a JVP-PA alliance it will be possible for the newly formed government that results to carry on the peace process. She was of the view that it is important to get feedback on this issue before there were concrete plans for a PA-JVP combine. But there was no reply to the message that the President sent to the Tigers through an intermediary who is said to be close to Mangala Samaraweera, a former Minister.

Striking out strikes
In the context of a JVP-SLFP alliance that was in the offing it was interesting that government Ministers were of the opinion that the JVP was instigating strikes, for instance, among the minor employees of the national hospitals.

The Prime Minister said that crackdown was necessary and he seemed to be prepared to talk tough. Though the strike issue was resolved through compromise, a committee of Ministers was appointed to get a handle on the situation of strikes and the resultant fallout from wildcat strikes.

The committee comprises Karu Jayasuriya, P. Dayaratne, Rajitha Senaratne, John Amaratunga, Gamini Lokuge, Tilak Marapana and Rauff Hakeem. Even though a doctors strike was one that any government always found difficult to get a handle on, given the essential nature of the doctors' services, there was no apparent conscience on the part of the government in sacking the employees of the other trade unions such as those representing minor employees in the health sector.

On the contrary the view was that if those who strike want to lose their jobs in the bargain - - that there can be replacements found always from the enormous number of youth who supported the UNF government in its campaign.

The ongoing hostilities between the President and Minister Ravi Karunanayake also see no ceasefire. Ravi Karunanayake has now been given the Presidential nod for receiving Mahapola money from her fund. This was after Karunanayake alleged that the President had used up most of the fund for election campaigns.

Though the President had agreed to release funds she says that this will be from year 2003 onwards, but Minister Karunanayake says she will have to fork out all, including overdues. So it appears that the last on that matter had not been heard.

There was also a protest that Ministerial leave should not have to be approved by the President, and this was also Ravi Karunanayake's protest. This position was accepted by the Prime Minister and now it seems the UNF MPs do not have to report to the headmistress before being excused.

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