India has spoken: what's next?
By Our Roving Correspondent
He sat at the head of the
conference table in the glass panelled room of the newly constructed
"Peace Secretariat" in Kilinochchi last Wednesday. Seated
around the table, on well cushioned revolving chairs with arm rests,
were nine parliamentarians of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA).
Guerrillas
in striped fatigues, armed with Kalashnikovs stood guard outside
the building. One of their leaders waxed eloquent to these MPs,
all of them elected freely through the ballot. With a small red
flag of "Thamil Eelam" in front of him, when S.P. Tamilselvan,
leader of the Political Wing of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
spoke, there was pin drop silence. All of them listened intently.
The TNA team
was led by Rajayothayam Sampanthan (Trincomalee), a one time fiery
critic of the LTTE who sought protection from the Police Special
Task Force (STF) commandos for fear of his life from them. It was
also not so long ago, at another closed door meeting, he wept like
a child before senior Indian High Commission officials in Colombo.
That was to plead his case over switching allegiance. "What
can I do? I have to save my life. I have no choice," he lamented
whilst wiping tears cascading down his chubby cheeks.
At last Wednesday's
closed door meeting, however, he nodded his head in approval every
time Mr. Tamilselvan stared at his face. So did his colleagues -
Mavai Senathirajah (Jaffna), Gajendrakumar Ponnambalam (Jaffna),
Selvam Adaikkalanathan (Vavuniya), Raja Kuhaneswaran (Wanni), Sivasakthi
Ananthan (Wanni), M.K. Sivajilingam (Jaffna), A. Vinayagamoorthy
(Jaffna) and Suresh Premachandran (Jaffna).
The pro-LTTE
Tamilnet website, now a "must see" for those on both sides
of the "north-south" divide, boasted quoting Mr.Sampanthan
"….as it is the first time the LTTE will be submitting
its concrete set of proposals in writing, they discussed the proposals
at great length."
Yes, they did.
But not all the proposals and not all the issues were discussed
at "great length." If the Tamilnet references made one
assume it was indeed a full and frank discussion on the LTTE's proposals,
it was both wrong and misleading. Why? Because, Mr. Tamilselvan
made clear he was not going to disclose details. He did not give
a reason.
The Sunday
Times learnt the LTTE had been told by Norwegian facilitators not
to divulge any details until 24 hours after they were handed over.
The LTTE had originally planned to give their proposals to Norwegian
Ambassador in Colombo, Hans Brattskar on September 26 and hold a
news conference in Kilinochchi the next day. The dates have now
been changed to October 31 and November 1.
Next Friday,
(October 31) Mr. Brattskar is expected to fly from Colombo to Kilinochchi
to bring them to be handed over to the UNF Government. On Saturday
(November 1), Mr. Tamilselvan will hold a news conference in Kilinochchi
to formally announce the full text. Even the Colombo based foreign
correspondents and local journalists are to be invited. Unlike the
UNF, the guerrillas seemed keen to make their demands known even
before talks begin.
But Mr. Tamilselvan
did give MPs of the Tamil National Alliance an important clue of
what is going to come. The Sunday Times learnt he told them that
the proposed interim administrative structure the LTTE will demand
will seek to incorporate powers relating to land use, security,
revenue, police and a judiciary.
That left little
room for guess work over the character of the demands. These are
all subjects expressly left out by the UNF Government when it forwarded
their proposals in July, this year, for a provisional administration
for the north-east. This was the third such proposal made since
the LTTE pulled out of the peace talks in April, this year. The
guerrillas made clear that the future of the ceasefire would depend
on Government's acceptance of their proposals, being made for the
first time since the near two decade long armed conflict.
Mr Tamilselvan
called upon the TNA parliamentarians to work hard to create a "ground-swell"
of public opinion. He said they should begin doing so even before
the proposals become public. He also made clear there would be no
move by the LTTE to set up a different umbrella Tamil political
organisation at this juncture.
Hence, for
the first time since the 20 month long ceasefire, the main elements
of what the LTTE will demand became known to more than a few last
Wednesday. Insisting on powers for land use, security, revenue,
police and judiciary, one would argue, has the trappings for a separate
state. This is the reason why the UNF Government was explicit in
excluding these subjects in their July proposals.
If that is
highly a contentious issue, a grave situation will arise with the
LTTE insisting that the powers it is seeking for an interim administrative
set up will be linked to a final settlement. An equally grave situation
has already arisen after Mr Tamilselvan's assertion that the LTTE
will only talk to a UNF Government delegation and not to any Muslim
representatives. The same position was articulated by Military Wing
leader for Batticaloa S. Muralitharan alias Karuna when he spoke
to Tamil media last week.
He said "we
regard Muslim people living in the North-East as a segment of Tamil
people." But a sharp rejoinder to Karuna's remarks came in
Parliament on Wednesday when Muslim parliamentarians of various
hues were unanimous in their views - Muslims should have separate
representation at upcoming peace talks. In view of this, the UNF
Government will find it difficult, if not impossible, to talk peace
with the guerrillas without a separate Muslim delegation taking
part. That places them at loggerheads with the LTTE.
If the "battle
lines" are getting clearly defined for the first time after
ceasefire, with each other's negotiating postures increasingly becoming
public, there is now a new dimension, or flashpoint. That is the
talks this week in New Delhi between Prime Minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe
and Indian Premier, Atal Behari Vajpayee. A Joint Statement that
followed has left a Sword of Damocles hanging over the LTTE.
UNF and opposition People's Alliance leaders have hailed this Statement
as a positive step.
The significance
of this unanimity, amidst the bitter acrimony between the two sides,
is underscored by a key element - the Government of India seems
to have met the aspirations of the two major political groups in
the country, the UNF and the PA through this three page joint statement.
This is undoubtedly
an important landmark in the history of Indo-Sri Lanka relations.
It allayed fears of security concerns for the UNF. For the PA, it
endorsed President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga's persistent
demand that an interim administration should an integral part of
a final settlement. Both sides were also delighted in their own
way that India had sent a strong message to the LTTE.
Many of the
recent joint declarations that followed visits by dignitaries from
one country to another spoke largely on diplomatic niceties and
mundane issues - the free and frank exchange of views, the need
to further strengthen close ties that exist and so on. But last
Tuesday's New Delhi Joint Statement is eloquent on a number of crucial
issues. More importantly, the Government of India, which maintained
a studied, self-imposed silence since the ceasefire on February
22, has now spoken.
What are the
important features of this Joint Statement? It begins by assigning
priority to economic matters. That takes almost two thirds of the
contents. Since the ceasefire and the resultant air of normalcy,
there has been a significant growth in trade and economic ties between
India and Sri Lanka. It is indeed a credit for Premier Wickremesinghe
to have personally pursued efforts to concretise this relationship
through formal arrangements, joint studies and other forms of co-operation.
Another creditable
factor is that he raised issue over civil aviation links between
India and Sri Lanka. India has lifted restrictions on Sri Lankan
airlines flights to six capitals - Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Bangalore,
Hyderabad Kolkata and 18 other destinatrons. It was easier for Sri
Lankans to fly to most parts of the world. But existing requirements
prevented them from easily obtaining a seat in a flight to most
of these Indian cities. The change will now facilitate increased
travel and thus a greater interaction between the people of two
countries.
Premier Wickremesinghe's
previous efforts to forge a link through a bridge across the Palk
Straits from Mannar to the Tamil Nadu coast and a ferry service
covering the same area have failed so far. The move appears to have
met with opposition from Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, Jeyaram Jeyalalitha.
In that context, the Joint Statement contains a one liner:
"The Sri
Lankan Prime Minister proposed commencement of a ferry service linking
Colombo with Kochi (Kerala)." It does not mention an Indian
response to the proposal. Evidently New Delhi has carefully avoided
earning the wrath of Ms Jeyalalitha. Whether the proposal to bypass
Tamil Nadu and propose a ferry service linking the neighbouring
state of Kerala will become a new irritant for her remains to be
seen.
A most important
element of the Joint Statement begins by saying "The Sri Lankan
Prime Minister apprised the Indian leadership of recent developments
in the peace process and proposals made by his Government for the
establishment of an interim administration."
For the first
time since the ceasefire of February 22, last year, the Government
of India has set out its policy vis-à-vis the peace talks
- it expects the LTTE response to be "reasonable and comprehensive"
and points out that India supports a negotiated settlement "acceptable
to all sections of Sri Lankan society within the framework of a
united Sri Lanka and consistent with democracy, pluralism and respect
for individual rights." By becoming a party to this Joint Statement,
it is clear, Premier Wickremasinghe and the UNF acquiesce with,
or share this policy. What of the LTTE?
India also
makes it clear its policy is that an "enduring solution has
to emerge purely through internal political process." Though
it has not spelt out what this process is, India has sent a clear
message to all other countries, including some trying to use financial
leverage, not to impose their will or pressures. That is not all.
India also makes says "any interim arrangement should be an
integral part of the final settlement and should be in the framework
of the unity and territorial integrity of Sri Lanka."
Is that not
a strong message to the LTTE? Does it not spell out the confines
or the parameters within which India expects them to formulate their
proposals? The clues emerging from Kilinochchi after Mr Tamilselvan's
meeting with the TNA parliamentarians reveal they will go far, far
beyond what India wants.
If that is
critical enough, the Joint Statement says "the two Prime Ministers
discussed the supply of equipment to the Sri Lankan defence forces
and agreed that the two sides will commence discussions with a view
to concluding a defence co-operation agreement at the earliest."
That is not all. It adds "India will maintain an abiding interest
in the security of Sri Lanka and remains committed to its sovereignty
and territorial integrity." Is this not a warning to the LTTE
that any attempts that impinge on Sri Lanka's sovereignty and territorial
integrity will draw a response from India?
The UNF Government
Spokesman and Chief Negotiator, now well known for his blatant spin
during media briefings, declared on Thursday that arrangements with
India regarding security "has no bearing on any apprehensions
on the part of the Government of Sri Lanka with regard to a re-commencement
of the war." Why have these arrangements at all after 20 long
months of ceasefire.
Only the deaf,
the dumb and the blind would believe such Goebelsian pronouncements,
and the question is whether the discerning public believe what he
says. If there is no apprehension of a possible re-commencement
of war, why have Tiger guerrillas doubled their strength, recruited
children, begun smuggling military hardware and embarked on further
training. Why did his cabinet colleague, the Minister of Defence,
Tilak Marapana, concede this stark fact in Parliament only a week
ago. Have the guerrillas not been following the Maoist dictum of
preparing for war when talking peace.
In this backdrop,
the fact that the security forces have been ill equipped, was facing
desertions and receiving very poor responses to recruitment drives
is now well known. The corollary of all this is that the security
forces are not on a high level of preparedness to meet a contingency.
Consequently there has been a marked shift in the military balance
between the security forces and the guerrillas. Most of this has
been due to UNF Government's conscious lapses. They did not want
to offend the guerrillas. But reports of them developing a strong
military machine jolted them.
In seeking
to forge a defence co-operation agreement with India, Premier Wickremesinghe
has thus obtained an assurance that can correct the imbalance. The
scope and content of the proposed Defence Co-operation Agreement
will now become the subject of discussions between the Defence Secretaries
of the two Governments. Premier Wickremesinghe would be better advised
to ensure the Sri Lankan side is backed by competent officials,
who have a professional knowledge.
This agreement
for defence co-operation has given rise to notions in some quarters
of a treaty that may lead again to the deployment of Indian troops
in Sri Lanka. This is furthest from the truth. Recently India entered
into a defence co-operation agreement with Singapore though this
economically stable island nation has no internal or external security
threats.
Therefore the
agreement focused on exchange of intelligence information with regard
to Islamic fundamentalist groups. Similarly the defence co-operation
agreement between India and Sri Lanka will formalise the training
of troops now carried out by India in addition to provision of military
hardware. It will cover exchange of intelligence, joint exchanges
and deal with other areas of common interest.
Already the
news of an impending defence co-operation agreement between India
and Sri Lanka has raised concerns in LTTE quarters. The first formal
response came in the pro-LTTE Tamil Guardian newspaper printed in
London. An editorial in this week's edition, the newspaper said
"Mr Wickremesinghe's public courting of Delhi in this regard
has struck a raw nerve and revived unpleasant memories. More importantly,
the move suggests Colombo clearly expects to coerce the LTTE into
a political solution - as opposed to co-operatively negotiating
one, it added.
Pointing out
that Colombo's "frantic efforts" to augment its military
capability will undoubtedly "prompt a strategy rethink in the
Wanni," Tamil Guardian says it is "unlikely to contribute
to a conducive atmosphere" at the negotiating table. Excerpts
from the editorial: "Prime Minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe,
is clearly expecting the LTTE leadership to share his assessment
of the risks and react appropriately - i.e. follow his lines of
rationale. As such, he is turning what ought to be a process of
conflict resolution into one of military blackmail.
"The question,
however, is what if the LTTE does not react quite as Mr.Wickremesinghe
intends when, instead of striking a deal that accommodates the aspirations
of the Tamil people, he attempts to foist - at the point of a bayonet
- a formulation of the present Sinhala domination on them?
"…one
can expect Mr. Wickremesinghe's efforts to shift the military advantage
drastically in his favour to have a profound impact on the peace
process as a whole. His predilection for shaking an 'international
safety net' at the LTTE has already raised the movement's hackles.
"The Tigers
warned in June, for example, that 'by seeking this 'safety net'
the Colombo regime has shifted the peace process from third party
facilitation to the realm of international arbitration by formidable
external forces that has far reaching consequences to the political
and economic destiny of the island.'
Another dimension
to Premier Wickremesinghe's visit to New Delhi came in a report
in Doodarshan, the national television network of India. It quoted
Home Minister, L. K. Advani, of warning the Sri Lankan Prime Minister
to be wary about a foreign intelligence agency operating in Sri
Lanka. The TV station said it posed serious threats to Sri Lanka's
national security.
Although the
LTTE leaders in the Wanni have not yet responded officially, one
source who spoke on grounds of anonymity on the telephone from Kilinochchi
declared that by proposing a defence co-operation agreement with
India, Premier Wickremesinghe has "taken the situation back
to what prevailed on February 21, 2002 - a day before the ceasefire
came into effect."
He was alluding
to the uneasy climate that prevailed before the ceasefire. He declined
to elaborate but cautioned that coming events will prove whether
the Premier's move has increased the "prospects for peace or
for war." Either way, the coming weeks will be crucial not
only to the peace process but also to the calm that has remained
in the past twenty months. |