Co-habit or co-perish
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe's declaration at Panduwasnuwara
relinquishing his responsibilities from the Cease Fire Agreement
(CFA) with the LTTE - unless the defence ministry is returned, was
a reiteration of an earlier statement.
He
has thrown the gauntlet on the fragile peace process. The premier
has a point. How can you negotiate without the CFA under your control.
President Kumaratunga on the other hand, took over the defence ministry,
in a fit, and now tells him "you handle the peace process,
but I will be minister".
Since
take-over of the ministry, she has done sweet nothing on accusations
about LTTE increasing its military strength, dismantling the High
Security Zone in Jaffna, nor the LTTE's continuous violation of
the CFA. Taking the defence ministry remains too embarrassing a
question to answer for the President. The problem is how we overcome
a virtually impossible political imbroglio. Go back to status quo-ante
'Presidential coup' or find ways to sort this mess out.
Elections
have been bandied as one way. That is no way out. The outcome of
that election will give a government a mandate will not hold if
the Prime Minister's side is re-elected, even with more seats. The
President can take the same stance.
"The
Constitution says the President cannot divest defence." She
will cite this judgment of the Supreme Court. Furthermore, by all
accounts, a hung Parliament is what we, the People will vote for,
and get once again.
Despite
the people's weariness of the 1978 Constitution, both the President
and the Prime Minister have only paid lip-service to getting rid
of it. The Prime Minister has been more forthright. He opts for
this brand of governance. He does say that some provisions need
change, but is comfortable with it. He clearly sees deep-rooted
problems for himself and his party playing second-fiddle to the
President.
The
reservoir of goodwill both have gained through the peace process
will probably be eroded if things were to go badly wrong. But then
- this is the system he favours. His attitude is akin to saying
"you took my marbles (when I was in America), I will not come
to play unless you return them".But all the sympathy he won
in November seems to be evaporating in the face of subtle damage-control
by her.
She
is telling - I want to work with the Prime Minister - I want to
share the defence ministry - she is telling this to diplomats in
Colombo, she told this to Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee
in Islamabad, she is telling influential Sri Lankans.
She
is burning the midnight oil hammering out an electoral pact with
the JVP, sending letters asking for the sacked ministers to be sworn
in again for their balance subjects, precipitating issues by poking
a finger into a wounded Premier.
The
longer this situation drags on, the greater the drift that will
carry Sri Lanka away from the dream of the Promised Land. Some suggestions
have been made. A North-East Command where flash-points that could
cause a breach of the CFA are identified.
The
President is willing to hand over this Command to the Prime Minister
together with the CFA. Military analysts say this will not work
- what about having a safe-house at Athurugiriya for operations?
Under whose command? Political analysts say this will allow the
military top-brass to play games with politicians. We will need
to do better than two officials meeting once a fortnight - and taking
extended Christmas holidays - to bring stability, and sanity to
proceedings in Sri Lanka. |