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An
alliance precipitates general election mania again
The new JVP-SLFP pact will be signed this week, on the 20th to be precise, and if the President does not go for a general election after that -- there will be one disappointed and disgruntled JVP. Ergo a general election now seems almost to be a certainty. Though the rank and the file of both major parties the UNF and the SLFP are not happy with the prospects of an election, the big guns are positively angling for a poll. Mangala Samaraweera last week could hardly hide his glee. He talked of "five principles'' - showing that he has visions of a 1956-like (pancha maha balawega) performance that will enable the JVP-SLFP coalition to sweep to power. But the President herself was cagey about announcing plans for elections, even though by week's end the entire country knew that an election was in the offing. She had many reasons for this, one among those being that the international and the donor community being averse to an election at this point of time. Another was the fact that the considerable Buddhist lobby wants to see anti-conversion legislation made into law before the current parliament is dissolved. This column has also maintained that it was the UNF more than any other party that was pushing for an election because Ranil Wickremesinghe felt it was the only way out of the standoff that resulted from the President's taking over of three key Cabinet portfolios last November. Events were however developing fast, and the UNF government last week was largely reacting to these events with the Prime Minister going on the warpath saying that the President's power bid has resulted in his government's development plans being stillborn. Has the UNF panicked? Does the UNF now estimate that a general election in the next few months will be a tough call, and that though its chances of winning are good -- it's not a certainty with the new SLFP/JVP alliance? The UNF has for long held the belief that Ranil Wickremesinghe will be a shoo in for the Presidency at the next Presidential poll, particularly because Chandrika Kumaratunga is constitutionally not entitled to run for a third term. But now, the President herself claims on television that she took oaths at a private ceremony in the year 2000, one year after she had taken oaths in public ostensibly for her second term. The UNF wants to go after the President for what they see as this blatant and ungainly attempt to extend her term of office -- thus preventing Ranil Wickremesinghe's promotion to the Presidency -- assuming he wins -- in 2005. Ministers Choksy and Tilak Marapana said last week at the pre Cabinet meeting that the government should agitate in the International Court of Justice, and the United Nations against this illegal move by the President to extend her term. Moreover, Minister Ravi Karunanayake was saying that Ranil Wickremesinghe should now be sworn in as President, as Kumaratunga’s illegal second oath taking disqualifies her from holding office anymore. At least to a certain extent what all this showed is that the President had managed to wrest control of the agenda, and dictate terms to the government whereas before her November takeover, she was a virtual lame duck President. She also put the screws on the sons of two UNF Ministers, those of Mahinda Wijesekera and S.B. Dissnayake, who ran amok in a discothèque attacking a group of relatives of another Minister Kabir Hashim recently. Last week she kept putting the screws on, and reminded the IGP Indra Silva that "the sons gone berserk'' have still not been apprehended. Finally they were brought to court the day before yesterday, and here the fact that the Prime Minister remained silent while the President took suitable action was also a points scoring exercise for the President - - even though she may have done it for just that reason -- to score some political points. So though there may be a rejuvenated President, come election time assuming that there will be a general election first, what are the respective chances of the President's spanking new alliance, and the UNF? The JVP-SLFP alliance hopes to do a Vajpayee, in the sense that it hopes to ride on a wave of Sinhala resurgent majoritarian sentiment, and then govern the way Vajpayee has done - - forget about all that parochialism when in power and deliver the goods. But the UNF feels it is the government that has delivered on the economy -- a five per cent growth and peace as opposed to reverse growth when the government took over from the PA. Also, to the UNF, any forthcoming election will be seen as a Referendum on the peace process. Its support base is urban based and there is predominant support in the Western province. But in the rural areas, can the SLFP-JVP alliance score with its back to Sinhala pride message -- thinly veiled or otherwise? The UNF will not be caught unawares on any of these. Last week, a UNF think tank met with the Prime Minister, and this included campaign specialists flown in from abroad. As far as campaigns go the UNF says it will produce a spectacular result at any forthcoming election. With most minority votes unlikely to go for the SLFP-JVP alliance, any election will be a highly polarised contest which will have not only to be a Referendum on the peace process but which will also polarise the community on religious and racial lines. In this context, what will matter is where the swing votes in the middle go, and therefore none of the parties can with any certainty predict their fortunes in any contest. The UNF has now also to contend with the IMF's sudden decision to slash aid pledges - and Minister Milinda Moragoda is still lobbying Richard Armitage and the aid co-chairs to lend some cohesion to the aid process. But, the Treasury too is standing in the way complained Minister S. B. Dissanayake last week, saying the Treasury Secretary had been tardy about releasing funds for appointing Samurdhi animators in each electorate, which Dissanayake says is a must before the UNF plans to fight any election. It is not lost on the President however that this is an unpopular election, and that the Provincial Council elections also need to be postponed with a further Amendment to the constitution if the general elections are to be held first. She is trying to play down the almost childish enthusiasm that has been displayed for the Alliance and an election immediately after that -- particularly because the international lobby has also been apportioning blame on her for a situation they see as being unnecessary. Besides, there is no assurance the Alliance can win. But, the bottom line is that she wants her own government. Ranil Wickremesinghe may win the Presidency in 2006 (or is that 2005) but if she forms a government she reckons it will be in power for a few more years, until after she relinquishes her term at which point it is upto the others to carry the torch. Squabble
for SLFP Secretary’s post ends They also have recommended the dissolution of the parliament prior to 09 February. Kumaratunga is very much likely to heed as she chose 20 January to sign the MOU after consulting these two astrologers. Nimal Siripala had pointed out that an election before the Sinhala New Year is not pragmatic and work on the new party constitution is yet to be completed. President Kumaratunga who responded saying, "Mangala and Wijedasa will take care of that", submitted this reasoning to harsh treatment. Her signals were all for an election and the decision to sign the MOU is also the amber before the green for all systems to go for elections. Secondly Mangala Samaraweera had got back his influencing power over Chandrika Kumaratunga. Prior to leaving for London he had emphasised the need for express action and swift elections. His call was answered when Lakshman Kadirgamar phoned him conveying the President’s decision and bade him to take wing and head home quickly. Mangala responded instantaneously by returning to the country cutting short his expected stay in London. The final touches to the alliance were made in the form of a series of meetings between high-ranking officials of both parties spreading to the whole of last week. The meetings centred especially on the action plans of the alliance and to resolve the issue of facing Provincial councils elections or general elections. At the meeting with the JVP delegation on Tuesday President Kumaratunga asked the JVP what if the Provincial Council elections came first even after signing the MoU. The JVP response was quite clear "we will compete separately even if the MoU was signed". The JVP did not budge from their earlier position on this issue. But another political drama far from eyes of many took place during last week. It was the SLFP mini battle for the post of party secretary for Colombo District. Two militant heavy weights were fighting out between themselves for weeks to win this prestigious post. Mervyn Silva. Chandrika Kumaratunga's strong man and Chandana Kathriarachchi more in line with Mahinda Rajapakse were the two contenders. The competition became so hot many feared that the SLFP super structure would melt breaking the party in two as the canvassing battle led to opening up of a battle front in which the battle cry was pro JVP or pro-SLFP. Fearing things might get out of hand President Kumaratunga intervened and summoned both of them to her residence on the morning of the election. Kumaratunga first called Mervyn Silva to her room and told him "this has gone too far, if things go like this the party will split into two", "there are two posts one for Secretary and one for the treasurer", she said and also told Mervyn "go and talk to Chandana and settle this and decide who will take over these two positions". Mervyn Silva then directly went to Kathriarachchi and told him "Machang, I am a wealthy man, I have so many vehicles and I sincerely do not want any money". " You can take the post of treasurer and make a few bucks". But the gutsy boy from Kesbewa didn't retreat so Mervyn went back with this news to President Kumaratunga. When Mervyn Silva told her of the impasse she requested him to sit and calmly made an alternative offer. Kumaratunga had prepared for this very strategically as she had a trick up her sleeve and knew that Mervyn Silva can be tamed only through use of the word "relative". Silva always refers to Chandrika Kumaratunga or any of her kith and kin proudly denoting his relationship with them. President had offered the position to Jeevan Kumaratunga and Mervyn’s response had been "if Chandana is also losing I don't mind because Jeevan is my relation". By evening at the meeting Nimal Siripala read this out to the gathering and eventually Jeevan became the Secretary while a Keerthi Udawatte became the winner of the Jackpot when he was appointed the treasurer. There ended in anti climax a much anticipated political battle. People of action in this party are yet to read the shrewd but strategic capabilities of its leader. This column revealed two weeks earlier some explicit material from the text of the JVP SLFP agreement that will be signed next week. This was a direct translation of the Sinhala text and the only text. This included rocket fuel driven criticisms on the Western states, donor community, Norwegians and the LTTE. But Dr. Sarath Amunugama is now preparing the English version of this text, which has been sanitised and diluted from its original text to be presented to international interests after the MoU is signed. The English text will be focused on a commitment for Social Democracy while the Sinhala one read Patriotism and populist front most probably to mislead Western audience. As the Sri Lankan political history reaches another historic juncture the people of the country should feel the effect that this was going to have on them. This reflection could trigger an ideological shift. The reds demonstrated their commitment to good governance in the Tissamaharama PS. If they can be effective monitors in this new alliance it would be something positive to look forward to. But if it is all about power we as a nation will gain nothing. |
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