Financial Times

Mixed signals on impending rice shortage
Story and pictures by Quintus Perera
Mixed signals appeared last week about the drought that has led to a water crisis and could result in a shortage of rice for domestic consumption compared to a surplus last year.

A Central Bank senior economist said that according to rough tentative estimates, the prevailing drought could trim the next paddy harvest by 15 to 20 percent. He said the areas affected so far are Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Puttalam, and Hambantota which have rain-fed and tank water-fed fields.

He said that if the situation worsens, the authorities would be compelled to import rice to replenish the shortfall and the affected farmers may have to be compensated.

Minister of Commerce and Consumer Affairs Ravi Karunanayake told The Sunday Times FT that if rice was imported it could be sold at a lesser price noting however that such a situation wouldn’t arise immediately as the country had enough rice stocks.

In Polonnaruwa, a major rice miller at Thamankaduwa said there was no immediate threat of any rice shortage as there was no change in the supply pattern of paddy to their mills when compared to the corresponding period last year. He said that they were purchasing paddy within a distance of 100 km from Ampara, Akkaraipattu and around Polonnaruwa.

One miller said while January is a slack period they are expecting a usual glut of paddy commencing towards the beginning of March. He said that around the Polonnaruwa area there are giant rice millers who almost entirely control the rice supply in the country with such names like Nipun, Sandamali, DMK, PRM Rice Mills, Gem Samba, Sooriya Samba and so on. He said that there are around 300 paddy millers but at present only about 50 are working.

A top rice dealer in Pettah also rejected speculation of an immediate rice scarcity in the country, indicating that they have received the usual supplies. But he pointed out that the millers have the capacity to manipulate the market.

Some government agencies and the private trade have been raising concerns of a rice shortage due to the prevailing drought. Last year due to a surplus crop the government in a major publicity campaign asked the people to eat more rice.

The drought crisis and its impact on agriculture was recently discussed by the Economic Policy Committee chaired by the Prime Minister. Last week during a hectic tour of the country's rice bowl, The Sunday Times FT found mixed reactions to the drought from the Polonnaruwa district covering Aralanganwila, Manampitiya, Sevanapitiya, Bo-Atta, Sinhapura, Welikanda, Ruhunupura and Aselapura and areas mainly fed by rain water and tank water such as Polgahawela, Dodangaslanda, Hiriyala, Kuliyapitiya, Batelegoda and Kurunegala.

Jayatillake Banda of Gokarella in Kurunegala, a father of two who depends entirely on paddy, was almost in tears when he spoke of losing one acre of his paddy cultivation due to the drought. He has lost not only the crop but also the Rs 8,000 he has so far spent.

There are about 400 large and small tanks that feed thousands of acres of paddy cultivation in Kurunegala. Apart from Mahaweli waters there is also a major chunk of paddy land that depends on rain and tank water and the scarcity of rice is created by crop failures in these paddy fields. Farmers Samarakoon Banda, Jayatillake Banda, Upali Bandara, Jayantha Ratnayake and Sunil Sarath spoke of the crisis pointing to huge patches of dried cultivated paddy land and empty tanks.

Farmer Banda said that he has lost almost his entire harvest on three acres of land due to the drought. He has already spent more than Rs 25,000 and was now trying to save at least half an acre by digging a well within his plot and with the help of a water pump spraying water. For digging the pit, water pump, fuel and additional pipes he has spent a further Rs 6,000.

Areas served by large tanks which have been rehabilitated and properly maintained, are not affected. A project Development Officer of the Minneriya Project Authority, Hingurakkgoda said the Minneriya Tank serves around 30,000 farmers and their water requirement for the ensuing period until the crop is harvested is around 45,000 acre ft but there is a stock of 57,000. Though many have pointed to a water shortage in Polonnaruwa for cultivation purposes, The Sunday Times found this was not true. A veteran paddy farmer, I H Somaratne of Welikanda who has been cultivating for the last 16 years said that in the Polonnaruwa area where paddy lands are served by Mahaweli water, there has never been a water shortage for paddy cultivation.

All along Polonnaruwa, Manampitiya, Welikanda, Ruhunuketha, the water channels serving the paddy fields are gushing out with water and green fields are seen all over. Somaratne said there was a lot of misinformation about a water shortage and noted that there could be a problem however with regard to drinking water needs. Many people in the Mahaweli use water supplied for paddy cultivation for drinking, washing and bathing purposes.

There was also little sign of major hunger strike going some reports by politicians and the media. There was one hunger strike in Polonnaruwa involving just four people, including two monks compared to last September when there were large farmer protests during the surplus rice situation.

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