Anxiety and some excitement in the post 4/11 saga
By Our Political Editor
After the September 11th attacks on the World Trade Centre buildings in the United States, the term "post 9/11 scenario'' has been the preferred shorthand for describing events that unfolded after the significant events of that day. Hardly a day passes by without some analyst or pundit pontificating about 'post 9/11.'

The wags here in Colombo will never be outdone - and they have now coined post 4/11. Post 4/11 politics in Sri Lanka are infinitely more different than what they were the day before President Kumaratunga took over three Ministries including Defence from the Ranil Wickremesinghe government on November 4th last year. (The fact that Sri Lankans put down the day before the month when they write, helps in rhyming 4/11with 9/11.)

So, the post 4/11 scenario is yet unresolved - -and that's almost an understatement. Asia Times for instance did a comprehensive analysis a few days ago on the post 4/11 scenario (without of course using 'post 4/11' as their tag-line) in which many noteworthy conclusions were arrived at. One is that President Kumaratunga has sidled upto India in the past few months. Mention is made of the Indo-Lanka Defence treaty, which is still in the burner -- but will probably be a reality, even amid the howls of protest by the LTTE.

But more importantly, the title of the article is "Covetous eyes on Sri Lanka's strategic jewel.'' That strategic jewel of course is Trincomalee, which is described in the article as one of the finest deep sea ports in the world which lies between the shipping traffic lanes connecting the Middle East and the Far East. To quote from the article: "According to observers, Trincomalee is a "strategic jewel". For several decades, the Pentagon had shown interest in this port, but during the Ronald Reagan administration interest appeared to have waned.

The recent revival of interest in Trincomalee in the Pentagon can then only be associated with the growing overall US interest in acquiring bases for intervention and rapid deployment for the sake of developing a quick strike capability in the general area.''

The article then, only confirms the long held belief, articulated before in this and other columns in this paper, that Sri Lanka is fast becoming a location for a proxy power-play between the United States, and the regional and other interested powers. The fact that Sri Lanka signed a Defence cooperation treaty (on matters of military training etc.,) with Russia last week also goes to confirm this position that regional powers -- and powers that wish to defy the US -- are getting into the act very fast.

If the President is "sidling upto India'' and if US/Norway is seen as being sidelined, that of course alters matters for the LTTE. The LTTE, to put it quite matter-of-factly, has been voicing increasing impatience over the Sri Lankan political standoff that's preventing the continuation of peace talks. The official LTTE position is "we are ready to talk any time but the Sri Lankan side cannot get its act together." They have added muscle to this position by saying there is a possibility of a return to war under the circumstances.

But, in reality, the Tigers are making maximum out of the situation. That the Sri Lankan side cannot "get its act together'' is for the Tigers a good enough reason to get the international community to recognise that its cause is "legitimate.'' Their refrain to the international community in the past month or so has been "we cannot work with the indecisive ineffectual Sri Lankan side - so let us govern our own affairs.'' The modus operandi now is to talk to international governments, and obtain aid for development direct from donor governments through the NGO pipeline.

But in the meantime the LTTE is playing its cards very right. The LTTE political wing leader Tamilchelvam very clearly stated before he emplaned for Oslo last week that it was willing to talk to any government with a clear mandate in the South. Though this goes against Anton Balasingham's assertion that "there will be war if the JVP-SLFP alliance comes to power because we will not talk to them,'' it now appears this was only a case of Balasingham shooting his mouth off.

As Thamilchelvam has reiterated several times after that, the LTTE is willing to talk to any Southern government with a clear mandate. This can also be stretched to mean one thing. As it is now well known, and as the Asia Times article confirms, Kumaratunga has been sidling upto the Indians. Meaning that Kumaratunga has Indian backing, to put it quite plainly. Now, the Tigers have been unsuccessfully trying to mend fences with India for the last several years, after the Rajiv Gandhi assassination without success.

So, talking to Kumaratunga may be one way, under the current circumstances, of the Tigers getting closer to India. All this leaves the UNF government thoroughly left out of everything. Not only is Kumaratunga calling the shots in the South, she is also beginning to look like the looming factor in the Northern equation also. Peace and good relations with the Tigers were two things the UNF government almost took for granted. Not anymore, it is clear, with the Tigers saying 'we will play ball with any government' (..and might we add, an Indian backed government?)

The UNF took the Tigers so much for granted, that high ranking UNF Ministers told this writer personally, in the presence of several noteworthy others the day after the President took over the three Ministries on 4/11 that "the LTTE will close the A9 road tomorrow.'' The UNF, now it is clear, was of the opinion that the Tigers on their own accord, or with some subtle pressure, will take some crucial steps to indicate their displeasure at Kumaratunga's conduct, by closing the A9 road etc., But the UNF pressure did not work with the Tigers. The LTTE took up the explicit position ''we are not going to take sides in Southern politics.''

Now, it is true, the Indians are also worried that the LTTE will win a substantial number of seats in parliament if there is an election. This is why the Indians are very clear with Kumaratunga that she should stave off an election. But, no matter how many seats the Tigers win, that does not mean that the LTTE will automatically support the UNF, or that the UNF can take the LTTE support for granted.

This is worrying the UNF government, and there are increasing efforts to cut some sort of deal with the Tigers, or at least arrive at some understanding. Last week, just for example, some young men including a lawyer from Minister G. L. Peiris’ office contacted the LTTE, with a view to visiting Kilinochchi to meet some of the top LTTE leaders.

What the lady will do in the meantime is of course not known. Whatever India might say or the West might say, she might call for a general election. As any fool will be able to tell you that's what the JVP and a lot of the rank and file in her party wants. Provincial Council elections anyway are a certainty, and the UNF government is "opening the pork barrel'' with an eye on the polls. There are tax cuts, and the Treasury is being almost forced to loosen up, with S.B. Dissanayake saying "I told you so.'' But on the other hand, a wave of strikes is bothering the UNF. No prizes for guessing who is behind those…

CBK overrules Anura and Mahinda from race
By Harinda Ranura Vidanage
Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga had to be the mediator to settle a dispute that shook the SLFP base violently. The cold war between Anura Bandaranike and Mahinda Rajapakse transformed itself into a pretty hot one last week parallel to the naming of office bearers of the new alliance. Both heavyweights were called into a closed door meeting at President's House at mid- noon last Friday.

Anura was coming to the meeting full of confidentce and buoyed by the support he gained from the previous day's public rally held at Town Hall. Mr. Rajapakse normally a cool customer when entering the Presidents house was in a tense mood. He knew the new alliance and the rise of Anura in the SLFP had the Rajapakses under siege in politics.

As Chandrika Kumaratunga asked Anura Bandaranike what he wanted to be in the new alliance he responded strongly trying to establish a favourable position to take on his opponent. "When I crossed over from the UNP you offered me the position of Foreign Minister", "But I told you in case if we were to be defeated I should be appointed opposition leader"

"But you appointed Ratnasiri Wickramanayake as opposition leader I did not object, afterwards you appointed Mr. Rajapakse as opposition leader I did not object" "But for the alliance to be conceived I played a major role and I want to be the National organizer."

Turning to Mr. Rajapakse President Kumaratunga questioned "OK Mahinda what is your position?", " I want to be the secretary of the new alliance said he," Anura Bandaranaike virtually jumped from his seat hearing this but he looked on at Mr. Rajapakse in awe as he kept going. "I can be the balancing factor in this alliance and if you do not offer this it would be a disgrace to me, said Rajapakse"

This made Anura snap "This is a farce he said, you don't trust the JVP and the JVP does not trust you, how can you hold such a crucial position in such a situation?" Without letting Mr. Rajapakse respond President Kumaratunga tried to settle it by offering different alternatives but the talks failed. After the two left Chandrika Kumaratunga tried to break this internal deadlock by talking to Maithripala Sirisena.

Kumaratunga told him "I will not make both of them secretary to the new alliance, if I offer it to Anura it is better to offer it to the JVP and if offered to Mahinda it is the end of the alliance". Maithripala Sirisena could only nominate Mangala Samaraweera as the best candidate for the post of secretary of the alliance. But Samaraweera still declines to be an office bearer of the alliance.

These disputes have delayed the naming of the office bearers to the new alliance indefinitely. Without office bearers the alliance cannot be cruising on full throttle. The lack of coordination has already cost them dearly. This was demonstrated at the recent public rally held last Thursday. Red flags outnumbered the blues ten to one, reds came with a full backup crowd who cheered their own but gave disciplined rounds of applause to the blue team with the exception of Yellow clad Anura Bandaranaike. As the JVP successfully pasted all the posters on the rally SLFP camp didn't even come to collect them. This led to an outburst by President Kumaratunga to Mangala Samaraweera who was in charge of the propaganda machinery.

The UNF government launched a vociferous campaign to question the return of Somawansa Amerasinghe who they claimed was a fugitive on the run. The JVP leader has been assigned the best security the JVP structure has. Even the top SLFP politicos were amazed to see Mr. Amerasinghe being escorted into town hall by a semi Para military type special unit. He has said that he will remain in the country till the general elections are over.

JVP leader Amerasinghe is provided with this special security where ever he travels, this has intensified last week as he started talking to all district and provincial leaders of the JVP. The politburo member from the Wijeweera era switches vehicles daily to scramble his tracks and very few JVP leaders know where he is residing at the moment.

While all this is happening the state is being brought to a virtual halt by strikes called by trade unions in the state sector. Last two weeks saw an avalanche of strikes in the country. But as people thought this was to destabilize the government the critical mission objective was to force President Kumaratunga to dissolve parliament. As Wimal Weerawansa kept on saying that they should first take care and straighten the "Mudun Kotha" of politics in Sri Lanka, this methodology has become the most preferred option.

President Kumaratunga is facing tremendous pressure from the international community to refrain from going to a general election. Both USA and Japan has acknowledged India to be the primary pressure source. Apart from Sunethra Bandaranaike telling the "Kapuwa Kapothi" story to Nimal Siripala at the lawn of Nirupan Sen's house, the India message gathered from all the top Indian diplomats are, India is unhappy with the chaotic political situation in the country, they do not mind the SLFP-JVP alliance as a balancing factor in local politics but are concerned about its transformation into a substitute government.

But the pro general election camp is looking for 6 February as the Indian Lok Sabha dissolves the Indian legislature the outlook would soften and they can easly take advantage of president Kumaratunga. But is the time right or ripe for general elections and for the sake of the alliance to face it and move the ship off the port with a capable crew and then sail to face the rough winds ahead.

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