Hung parliament again - and a terribly confused election?
By Our Political Editor
There is a paradox in the fact that ominous warnings are being made about a hung parliament that will result from the April 2nd elections, and observers including political scientists are saying it will all lead to a highly divided state polarised along ethnic and religious lines. When Reuters released a story saying there will be a hung parliament according to a survey carried out by them, it seemed to give credence to this gathering theory.

Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake is refusing to hold elections in the Tiger controlled areas citing security reasons landmines and other inconveniences. It is a supreme irony that the Tigers are asking for elections in areas controlled by them -- while Dayananda Dissanayake representing the Sri Lankan authorities says such elections cannot be held. This was the opportunity for the Sri Lankan state to prove that the country was still of a unitary character --- and what better way to do it than to hold elections in so called rebel held territory?

But the catch in all of this (in fact a Catch 22) is that on the Sri Lankan side of the divide, there is immense fear a hung parliament will result from the poll, in which the deciding factor will be the Tamil vote. If the Tiger controlled areas are polled, it will mean at least five more seats for the Tamil Alliance that's basically a proxy organisation contesting on behalf of the LTTE. Hold elections in Tiger held territory and there is a risk of increasing LTTE control in a hung parliament. Do not hold elections in these areas, and the government will be legitimising the LTTE claim that there is no Sri Lankan government suzerainty in areas held by them, meaning that in effect there are 'two countries.'

But the issue of elections in Tiger territory aside, the LTTE is definitely not passing-up the opportunity to call all the shots in a possible hung parliament in Sri Lanka. Last week Thamilchelvan the LTTE's now well known hotshot of the political department, and Pottu Amman the former director of the suicide operations, met the leaders of Southern Tamil political parties.

Already, the lists for the TNA are being made with heavy LTTE input, and the LTTE is fielding candidates from the North and the East among who are some journalists. The LTTE is also not ready to have any troublemaker contest, and therefore they have opposed the nomination of Anandasangaree the TNA leader, who has been so upset by these developments that he has met the President and the Indian authorities asking that they help him contest as an independent candidate.

The LTTE will have none of it -- because already the organisation feels that some of their plans have been short circuited by various political actors in the South. Mano Ganeshan the Indian origin Tamil leader of the Western Provincial People's Alliance who first mooted the idea of a Grand Tamil Alliance, and those such as Chandrasekeran now want to contest on their own as separate entities -- and owing to this the LTTE feels that it has passed up the opportunity to field its own candidates in the South. If a Grand Tamil Alliance materialised, then the LTTE would have been in control of it, and its own candidates would have come forward but Mano Ganeshan etc., who first mooted the idea now have effectively closed that option by contesting on their own because a Grand Tamil Alliance of the expected nature did not happen.

However, by all calculations the LTTE will secure at least 15 seats (via the TNA of course) and control a hung parliament. But in the meantime, it's anybody's guess as to who is trying to drive a permanent wedge between Sri Lanka's already antagonised political factions. For example, last week several churches were contacted by callers who said that they are from the JVP, and that they are planning attacks on these churches. Obviously, this sounded the work of some elements which want the JVP to be the fall-guy for church burning, but the fact is that in the prevailing climate such threats could be easily misunderstood.

The President, being conscious of this immediately despatched an emissary to meet the Archbishop of Colombo to reassure him about security and make it clear that there is no Alliance hand behind the arson directed at the churches.

The President also met religious leaders for a lengthy pow-wow at the Presidential Secretariat, for which she was only five minutes late -- and at this discussion which lasted for four and half hours she was told emphatically by the chief incumbent of the Bellanwila Raja Maha Vihara that the Buddhists are aghast about the church burning activities which is why everybody is wishing that those behind these attacks be quickly apprehended. IGP Indra Silva who was present said his men are still working on the job.

But political analysts are of the view that some conflicts move in the direction of a polarisation after a cathartic event such as an armed conflict. They cite the many schisms which led to the "Balkanisation'' of eastern Europe into several ethnic enclaves. They see this happening in Sri Lanka, and the surest proof of it according to them is the fact that the Buddhist monks are contesting on a Sinhala nationalist ticket under Hela Urumaya.

These monks had a stack of demands for the President last week, but the President was willing to meet the monks even though she could not accede to their demands. But sources from the President's office say that the monks dodged her even though they were invited for a discussion -- but the version of the monks is that the President did not meet them by the deadline provided, which is why they decided that their decision to contest is final and conclusive.

The monks are definitely poised to take some of the Alliance votes, and in this way they will aid in the process of a possible hung parliament scenario. If they are responsible for the Alliance being unable to secure a proper majority (in the event the Alliance winning the election at all of course) that will be absurdly ironic -- but all of these surmises go a long way in indicating that the coming elections are a different kettle of fish altogether from the ones held before. Some political analysts have already said that the prevailing alignment of forces will lead to further divisions and have sounded the alarm bells -- but the processes have been set in motion and there is not much that can be done now except to await the outcome when the polls happen on April 2nd.

But the UNF which has assured top US officials that the envisaged free trade agreement will be signed when the Wickremesinghe government is returned to power, was getting its election machinery organised particularly after the JVP appeared to acquit itself quite well after meeting business leaders at the Bandarnaike Conference Hall on Wednesday.

The most dramatic moment of the session was when Somawansa Amarasinghe the JVP leader told the assembled businessmen -- to pindrop silence -- that the "JVP has surprised you already , and the JVP will surprise you again." He meant that the business leaders will be stunned by the JVP's capacity for positive change in the economy.

Coupled with an apology for past excesses - - significantly the first public apology which therefore should be considered a watershed event for the JVP - this seemed to bowl over at least some of the businessmen present. The UNF was therefore necessarily looking sharp. A team of foreign propaganda advisors have already taken over the party's publicity machine. The party already has a sense that this will be the toughest election it will ever fight.

Sangha politics could generate a new force
By Harinda Ranura Vidanage
Sri Lankan political scene is slowly transforming itself in to a chaotic political entity in all departments parallel to the nearing of the new D'day. President Chandrika Kumaratunga perceived it to be the judgment day. Or is it? As forces of all dimensions chose to contest in elections chaos has begun to grow in the whole context of the general election.

Kumaratunga saw it as an exit strategy to a political crisis born through deadlock between the head of the state and head of the government. But the forces unleashed through this seem to be uncontrollable to the president herself. This is quite evident in the new phenomenon of Sangha politics which she desperately tried to sway towards her camp and failed.

It seems like an old puritan revolt. As the Sangha group led by Rev. Uduwe Dhammaloka thera and Rev. Ellawala Medananda thera began the radical move it was the Freedom Alliance which panicked. Earlier this group sent a letter to President making three key demands including an immediate investigation into Ven Soma Thera's death and introduction of non conversion legislation. But work on finalizing nominations for elections led to the delay in responding from the President's side. Nevertheless President Kumaratunga made a written reply and also additional secretary to the President Kumaratunga rang the secretary of the Sangha movement confirming her reply.

But the group dismissed the reply as being late and went on its on separate way. Meanwhile Mangala Samaraweera and Sripathi Sooriyarachchi managed to secure a vital link between the Ferial Ashraff NUA and the dissident group of SLMC led by minister A.L.M. Athaulla. This absorption to the Freedom Alliance is a remarkable advantage to its election campaign.

Meanwhile the main slogan of the Freedom Alliance election campaign will be formally unveiled in the coming week. The slogan goes as "Victory for Sri Lanka" ( Dinavamu Sri Lanka). The theme of the election campaign will be "Batha bulathin Saru Heta Davasak, Samayana Rajayana Ekama Ratak". A theme song is also being prepared to be sung at the inauguration campaign rally in Anuradhapura.

The Freedom Alliance has developed a unique election campaign based on three layers. Thus it will be an integrated campaign where the design will be in three separate layers. The first layer is designed by Sarath Amunugama. This is targeted especially at boosting the image of President Kumaratunga. The public relations organizations of Dr. Sarath Amunugama’s daughter and Ishini Wickramasinghe are responsible for the whole process. As the FA has not nominated a Prime Ministerial candidate for strategic reasons, this campaign is specifically designed to bring back Chandrika Kumaratunga as the new Prime Minister.

Mangala Samaraweera is in charge of the second layer which is a joint campaign with the JVP where the new alliance will be given priority. This is the political marketing campaign of the total alliance. The state media is also mobilized heavily on this aspect. Thirdly the JVP will be spearheading a separate and one party campaign but advocating a victory for the alliance.

The new alliance has appointed Mangala Samaraweera and Wimal Weerawansa as joint spokespersons of the new alliance. They will soon start a new system of press briefings at the SLFP party head office every Wednesday. The election campaign will be directly under Chandrika Kumaratunga confidante Dr. Tara de Mel who is aided by Mano Tittawella and P.B. Jayasundara.

While the Freedom Alliance juggernaut is rolling on despite the political chaos that has gripped Sri Lankan politics the UNP seems to be lagging far behind. It seems to be difficult for them to find an able steersman in this stormy weather condition. In the election of 2001 Milinda Moragoda brought down a delegation of four election consultants from USA specifically for designing of campaign strategy for Colombo. The Washington based company team was led by Paul Manafort. They succeeded in getting the campaign going smoothly and getting the UNP a mammoth share of Colombo votes. But before advising Wickremesinghe they met Sirisena Cooray who successfully led an election campaign in 1988 despite being in a very disadvantageous position.

But the UNP this time has totally overlooked such senior people. The second blunder the green camp is making is the total boycott of state media. Rupavahini, ITN and SLBC still have the widest reach and viewer base in the country. In the age of media being a vital element in political marketing over looking that aspect is a strategic blunder which will cost the UNF heavily in the forthcoming elections. The UNP has not successfully even designed a PR campaign for the coming general elections as yet a single poster is to come out on the general elections platform.

The Freedom Alliance is using a tracer bullet assault system in using good public speakers and debaters on state television. The JVP top brass are the potential candidates in this verbal firing squad. The UNP has not succeeded in finding potential counter measures for this as the traditional fire power of Rajitha Senaratne and Ravi Karunanayake has lost its punch; the UNF is blocking even the nominations of good orators such as Sarath Kongahage.

The UNP is trying to fight this general election from a disadvantageous position of being an unpopular government. With its ultra rightwing economic policies and controversial peace process they are not using the only unique selling proposition they have. They achieved not peace but at least a ground condition of no bombs, no shocks for common people. The new alliance made of very different factions advocating a common understanding of one single policy of a united Sri Lanka is riding high and is holding pole position at the moment.

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