Premier stakes and the unfolding drama
By Our Political Editor
Any government that's formed after an election, particularly if it is a minority government, is based on the goodwill that it receives from its electoral victory. With a fount of goodwill at their disposal, forming and running a government almost appeared a piece of cake for the UPF Alliance.

But now it seems, Chandrika Kumaratunga may be determined to squander this goodwill that has been earned from the electorate and from most right thinking people.

It's because she wants to make the pivot of her new political adventure, the dismantling of the Executive Presidency through a Constituent Assembly. She is staking everything on this probably illegal move, and is also foregoing an opportunity to command an easy majority (over 113 seats in parliament) by allying with the CWC.

The Buddhist monks of the JHU have however also told her that she should not ally with the CWC - - and that their support will be extended to her government if she does not ally with Mr Thondaman. But, this is a risky assignment for Kumaratunga because the monks do not want to give any commitment. All they say is "we will extend our support to you from the opposition, if you do what we say.'' And what do they say?? Their conditionalities are a tall order. They want the LTTE de-recognised as the sole representatives of the Tamil people, and they want an immediate de-merger of the North and East, and the cutting off of any ties with Mr Thondaman.

But it's not so much the monks, but the President's determination to secure her own political future that's driving her to push for a new constitution. Under a new constitution with no bar to dissolving Parliament, she plans to hold a fresh election and win a bigger mandate, which will enable her to takeover as Prime Minister in charge of an Executive Cabinet.

She is already making arrangements to obtain a Supreme Court opinion on whether a Constituent Assembly is possible with her mandate in the April 2nd elections. With the UNP bushwhacked and grovelling, she is not worried about being audacious. In fact her political behaviour of the last six months or so - - or at least since her November takeover of three Ministries has been audacious, so what's new??

Looking back her audacity paid off, and Ranil Wikremesinghe's caution and vacillation paid off very little. Ranil Wickremesinghe came back to a tumultuous welcome from the United States, when he got back after the President's so-called constitutional coup of taking over three ministries last November. It took him forever to get to Colombo amid the rugby-scrum of supporters. But Ranil Wickremesinghe frittered away the goodwill, in the mistaken belief that the President is genuine in her effort for cohabitation. He had his stubborn streak no doubt, not being willing to compromise on the Defence portfolio in any way.

But, what really caused the President to make her audacious moves?? A sudden seizure of a power - lust? No. It is more likely that at the time she took over the three portfolios she was under the impression that she was defending herself. It happened like this. She discovered that Ministers Ravi Karunanayake and Rajitha Senaratne were collecting signatures from UNF MPs with a view to impeaching the Chief Justice, who had just delivered a judgement that the Ministry of Defence had no power to radically re-structure the Defence Establishment. But, the President wrongly read the signature campaign as an effort to impeach her! To pre-empt what she read as this act of perfidy, she took over the three Ministries and from there began the slide of the UNF, which at that time was in fact clamouring for an election on the reasoning that the party will get ten more seats in parliament!!

The long and the short of it then is that the UNF's fall and fall, was dramatic as its rise and rise. It happened fast, and now we know that Ranil Wickremesinghe packed his bags and went back to his private home in Colombo this week after bidding his goodbyes to the staff. That brings us to the story of the new resident of Temple Trees, Mahinda Rajapakse. His rise and rise last week was even more dramatic almost, than the UNP's fall.

Soon after he was appointed Prime Minister, Mr. Rajapakse spoke to The Sunday Times from within the confines of his rather modest home and office in Jawatte. He smiled and joked, and said he is a tenant in Temple Trees, and will go there with the 'pedura' like Dahanayake, because he plans to stay there for just 4 months. The top priority he said of his tenure as PM, is to get the President to his seat (the PM's seat) and then fade into the background.

In fact that statement may have more bitter truth to it than even he lets out, even though one cannot expect anything more than perhaps a denial from Presidential quarters. Rajapakse it appears had to mount a battle larger than Karuna's or Prabhakran's to get to Temple Trees. To recap, before the election, the President had asked her senior advisor Lakshman Kadirgamar whether he would like to be the PM for a short time if a UPFA government is elected. She also told business leaders that she would like to have a PM from the minority community. But, on election day, when she was asked by a longtimer who was close to her about the Kadirgamar for PM, she said "I thought of him but probably not.''

Then by Sunday when the election results were out, Mahinda Rajapakse was knocking on the door at President's house staking his claim for the PM's job. The President asked the JVP's top guns Wimal Weerawansa and Tilvin Silva who they preferred as the PM, and they all said Lakshman Kadirgamar is the man for the job. The President then asked UPFA lawyers to refer to provisions for appointing National List MPs, a further indication that Kadirgamar will soon be appointed PM.

Meanwhile the other strong contender was neutralized by none other that business mogul Harry Jayewardene who was operating from President's House to do his bit. He took Anura Bandaranaike to meet Lakshman Kadirgamar despite the previous sour relations between the two, and Anura began pushing for Kadirgamar. So did the Buddhist monks, who were furious with Kadirgamar for letting the state media attack them when he was Minister of Information just before elections. Kadirgamar probably believed that if he supports a runaway mud-slinging state media, he would be rewarded with the Premiership, and things won't be too bad. But he lost his credibility as a result.

But with Mahinda Rajapakse mounting his Premiership drive, the President had no alternative but to appoint him. Did Rajapakse threaten to join the UNF with ten MPs if he was not appointed? Well, even if true, you can be sure he will not be the one to admit. But also, he did sign a letter at the behest of a top ranking party man who was instructed by the President. The letter was to say he will give up his post soon, to make way for the President. Some say an undated letter of resignation was also furnished, but we cannot confirm that. Maithripala Sirisena informed Mr. Rajapakse of his appointment as PM in the end. The JVP was furious and sent only Nandana Gunatilleke for the swearing-in, not the loveliest start for the Alliance.

India also played its part -- and played its part also to ensure that a UPFA government gets on track. But there was still another drama going on elsewhere. The LTTE warned the UPFA, in no uncertain terms through emissaries, that any effort to get the four Karuna MP's support for a government, will be read as an act of hostility and the LTTE will immediately break the truce. So, even though the state Radio had announced that the Karuna MPs will join the TNA, this idea was immediately dropped. The Karuna MPs themselves, four of them from the East, then came to Colombo last weekend for a meeting of TNA MPs at Gajan Ponnambalams's house, under Sri Lankan military escort arranged by Karuna.

After the meeting the military escort insisted that the four go back to Batticaloa, at which there were howls of protest as the MPs had already pledged their allegiance to Prabhakaran and did not want to do as Karuna wanted. But they had to go back under military escort, with the female MP Thangeshwary Kadiraman in tears. Two MPs are now under Karuna's guard in his territory, while two were sent to their homes under military escort. But one of them Pathamanathan decamped to Colombo after that. What of the other TNA MP? He never got caught up in all of this, as he had arrived in Colombo earlier. This is Jeyanandamoorthy, a journalist. Jeyanandamoorthy arrived in Colombo on his own, so he could not be compelled to go back to the East with the military escort. So while Prabhakaran battles Karuna, the shadow power play turns out to be even more explosive than that…

Freedom Alliance faces teething problems
By Harinda Ranura Vidanage
After securing a notable victory at the general election the Freedom Alliance then set about on the task of establishing its first line of control. For this the next step was the naming of a new Prime Minister. Prior to revealing the dramatic scenario which ensued the naming of the Prime Minister the context in which it took place has to be explicitly specified.

The Freedom Alliance victory saw the metamorphosis of the JVP from a regional power house in local politics into a national power house. It also saw the total deterioration of the SLFP, once the traditional political party, which was basically opposite to the UNP in terms history of party politics in Sri Lanka. The realization of the SLFP membership of this phenomenon paved the way for mounting a sudden rear guard action by the party to arrest this development. These moves created a situation that might hurt this fragile alliance more and may even lead or force the JVP to quit the alliance.

The SLFP's sudden change of heart electing Mahinda Rajapakse instead of Lakshman Kadirgamar as Prime Minister occurred due to this sudden change in SLFP ideology. In the run-up to naming a Prime Minister, President Kumaratunga earlier had even told the JVP her favored candidate was Lakshman Kadirgamar. But fierce insistence of the SLFP bloc that they needed a leader capable of retaining the SLFP identity alive and be more acceptable to the public made them propose the name of Mahinda Rajapakse.

But a day earlier she summoned Mr. Rajapakse to her chambers and offered him any ministry from her new cabinet but he dismissed the ministerial offer. Fair by a person who was formerly the leader of the opposition in the parliament. But even to the surprise of the President it was her own staff that began the campaign to install Mahinda Rajapakse as Prime Minister. Among those who spearheaded the campaign were former secretary to the President K Balapatabendi, Kamal Ratwatte, Amal Jayasinghe, Personal Assistant to President Kumaratunga who is also the wife of Lasantha Alagiyawanne.

The second stage of the campaign of Rajapakse for Prime Minister was started by the SLFP general secretary Maithripala Sirisena at a meeting convened by the president two days before the appointment of Mr. Rajapakse as the new Prime Minister ultimately.

Alliance representatives Nandana Gunathileka, Tilvin Silva, Wimal Weerawansa, Susil Premajayantha, Maithripala Sirisena and Nimal Siripala Silva attended this meeting. SLFP general secretary had fired the first salvo demanding a Sinhala Buddhist be appointed the Prime Minister and his reasoning has been based on the ground situation of the country. Both Susil Premjayantha and Nimal Siripala had backed this claim but the meeting ended with no consensus being reached in the matter.

Later that day Mano Tittawella and Maithripala Sirisena had visited Lakshman Kadirgamar and briefed him about this latest development. Kadirgamar had responded saying that he will accept the final decision of President Kumaratunga. The President’s delegation then offered him the ministry of constitutional affairs and pledged the position of nominal executive in the new constitution which the alliance hopes to introduce. Kadirgamar had turned down the offer saying that the same situation would arise at that point as well.

The next day President Kumaratunga had summoned her brother Anura Bandaranaike and questioned where he stood in the matter of nominating the Prime Minister. Surprisingly Anura had said that he would never want to be the PM when his sister was the President but will be either of the two when she was gone. He had requested the Ministry of Foreign Investment, Industrial Development and Tourism. The sudden change in the attitude was due to the new advisor that Anura had acquired in the form of Harry Jayawardena.

After settling this matter President Kumaratunga decided to meet Mangala Samaraweera, her most trusted confidant to get his views on this premiership. Mangala reportedly had told the President "As a person from the South I am the one who is most pleased for Mahinda, but he must meet these conditions if he is to be appointed".

They are as follows, (i) The new PM should guarantee the security of the President, (ii) He must in four month’s time lead the FA parliamentary group to change the constitution (iii) Sign a letter of resignation undated prior to his being sworn in. Mangala Samaraweera then had told the President if Mahinda Rajapakse declines to agree to this he will be the one to bring a no-confidence motion against the Prime Minister in four month’s time.

Finally the President decided to appoint Mahinda Rajapakse as Prime Minister but the JVP then sent an immediate fax to President’s Office demanding a meeting with the President over her decision.

They were given the meeting just one hour before the swearing-in. The JVP delegation told the President that as an alliance the SLFP and the JVP should act jointly on vital matters. A divisive tendency is more apparent in the events leading to the appointment of ministers. SLFP's moves to jealously guard its identity has come a bit too late. This may cost the party the fruits of its electoral victory.

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