Govt. enjoys no peace with any party
By Our Political Editor
She has had enough. The damn Tigers on the one side, the darn JVP on the other. What did President Chandrika Kumaratunga do? She blasted both of them in the course of 72 hours. What else could she do thereafter? She booked her air-ticket to London for a summer holiday.

Naturally, she was getting tired. The LTTE was up to its old tricks of shifting the goal-posts. If it was ISGA (the self-rule authority they want) proposals that they were putting forward to be pitted against the Sri Lanka Government (GOSL) proposals for a negotiated settlement, now they wanted nregotiations only to be conducted on the ISGA proposals sans a set of GOSL proposals. “It's a bit of a joke,” she said of the LTTE stand during a TV interview with Indian journalist Ravi Prasad, formerly of the reputed Statesman newspaper, and a long-time Colombo wallah.

The LTTE is not going to think that off-hand rejection of their stand is funny. Their response is to be awaited. Then, the JVP was making public pronouncements that the country came first and the (UPFA) government came thereafter - a more than veiled threat to her that if she was to go ahead with discussions on the LTTE's ISGA proposals only, they (the JVP) will have to re-consider their partnership in the fledgling government.

The very theme of the Marxist-nationalist party's countrywide propaganda rallies was provocative - ' Who are the real enemies of Peace '. At a well-attended rally at the Maharagama Youth Centre in Greater Colombo, the party's propaganda secretary Wimal Weerawansa studiously avoided mentioning the name of President Kumaratunga, but slammed Peace Secretariat Director General, sorry, Secretary-General Jayantha Dhanapala instead.

Referring to a statement, Mr. Dhanapala had made in Jaffna, Mr. Weerawansa asked for the former UN diplomat's credentials to make proposals for UPFA government on LTTE demands without consulting the JVP. What clearly must have riled the JVP would have been Mr. Dhanapala's remark that the government would seriously consider the LTTE's ISGA proposals even if the JVP was to object to them, which seemed to dismiss with apparent nonchalance the fact that the nearly 40 percent of the UPFA government, is the JVP. No way to treat a minority share-holder with such a big slice in the company he keeps.

Mr. Dhanapala took the brunt of the nationalist onslaught this week for his attempts to curry favour in Jaffna. In Parliament, the Buddhist monks asked the UPFA government whether his remarks that the LTTE are to be treated as ' equal-partners ' as the GOSL, and whether any proposals put forward by the GOSL in response to the LTTE's ISGA proposals would be tabled in the House. Freedom Party (SLFP) general secretary Maithripala Sirisena gave the most astounding response. He asked for time till next month to answer the question.

So, President Kumaratunga came before her captive audience, on her turf where the SLFP was fund-raising for a new party headquarters, an occasion to which she kept the print media out. She took the opportunity to lash out at all and sundry, including her government's major minority-share-holder.

“The SLFPers don't go about the streets shouting in red T-shirts, or wearing red caps, or sporting beards, or displaying guns and bombs - but they have faced bigger challenges,” she said. It was like plunging a political knife in her ally. “We have proved this in our 53-year history,” she added - clearly, 1971 in mind.

If she singled out the JVP with the above, she roped them in collectively by saying that of all the parties represented in Parliament today, only the SLFP, LSSP, the CP and the MEP have not indulged in murder to remain in power.

Then came a ‘round-the-wicket’ slog - a kind of to whom it may concern statement - saying that none can go against her. Only those who are greedy to remain in power will do so. In a sense what she said could only refer to those presently in office.

President Kumaratunga attacking the UNF in such tones is not news anymore. How much more contemptuous can one get, of your friends. By these harsh remarks she even superceded her attack on the LTTE leadership in that tv interview. For one thing she was not personal when she referred to the LTTE. If at all, the only remark against its leader Velupillai Prabahakaran was that he "would have been my murderer" and "still is a potential assassin of me", the remarks on her own allies were dosed in vituperation.

In her interview with Ravi Prasad, President Kumaratunga also said she would send in her troops to liquidate the LTTE leadership if they did not behave. I'm sure this newspaper's Defence analyst will deal with those remarks. Suffice to say, that watching the TV interview, there seemed little conviction in the warning, and even if there was, the threat followed Prasad asking such a specific question, and did not come from her own bat, so to say.

She tempered those remarks by quickly adding that this will only be done “after long reflection” and that “at the moment we don't think it is necessary - it (the troubles in the East) is at a low level”. She seemed to quickly get on to reverse-gear after stepping on the gas as it were.

Then, even while talking of the LTTE, she could not resist a swipe at the JVP by saying "they were also a violent group" and begged the question why they cannot support her rapprochement with the LTTE "when there are few options". One has, of course, heard her rival Ranil Wickremesinghe say this before, who has got a tongue-lashing from the JVP.

But all this is politics in this country. The JVP and PA joined in a working-arrangement to oust the Ranil Wickremesinghe UNF government, and run the country. They put on the back-burner, the issue of the north-east separatist insurgency. They agreed to disagree from the very beginning, and the people obviously did not mind this marriage of convenience.

Now in power and place, what has happened is that President Kumaratunga has merely stepped into Ranil Wickremesinghe's left-behind shoes or sandals as the case may be) and continues regardless on all fronts, be it economic, political or military. The JVP finds this, naturally disturbing, and revert to their old belief - unuth ekai, munuth ekai (they are the same -- no difference).

President Kumaratunga's bad cough only added to her problems. It’s nearly ten days since she contracted a cough, and it seemed that like her political woes, it just would not leave. She had tried western medicine for over a week, and now turned to ayurvedic herbs. Again, she may have done it the wrong way round. She might have tried the ayurvedic herbs first.

She was unable to attend this week's cabinet meeting, and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse presided, not to the amusement of some of his colleagues. The government's headaches are not just the trade union strikes, soaring cost-of-living difficulties for those who just voted them to power, and the LTTE's stubbornness, but the looming religious war over the anti-conversion bill.

The Supreme Court had just knocked down some provisions of the private bill sponsored by the monk-MPs of the JHU saying those provisions required a two-thirds majority and a referendum of the people, both of which, the JHU is confident of getting.

Former Prime Minister and current Buddha Sasana Minister Ratnasiri Wickramanayake had his own means of meeting the JHU demands. An earlier government sponsored anti-conversion bill was still stuck with the Legal Draftsman. The UPFA seems to be angling at avoiding support for the JHU bill by saying they have one of their own to sponsor. Added to this is another proposed bill to set-up an advisory body of representatives from all religious bodies - the aim of which is to outlaw fundamentalist religious organisations operating in Sri Lanka.

Ratnasiri Wickramanayake was keen to have some bills tabled in Parliament to keep the Buddhist monks happy. But there was a mini-debate on the issue. One Minister opposing said that S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike would not have been converted a Buddhist if this bill was law at the time. Ultimately, legal snags were so many that Wickramanayake had to send his proposals once again for 'wetting' by drafting experts

And yet, the looming Cost-of-living, war notwithstanding, the 31-month-old ceasefire conjured up many things for many Sri Lankans. Most Sri Lankans who found their lifestyles had become easy with no more hassles of going through checkpoints believed peace had arrived. To the most discerning, it only meant the guns had fallen silent and peace was yet to arrive.

If that peace is still elusive, battle lines appear to be getting sharply defined. As we see if that has become a reality in the political field, fears transcending to the military arena are rising high. This is despite the latter fears being lightly dismissed by those in the upper echelons of the Government. If they feared there were serious threats that contributed immensely to a "deteriorating of national security interests," they now seem to think - at the highest levels of this UPFA government - that there is no deterioration of national security interests, in fact, it's all one big hoax. Such hoaxes are being perpetrated by a handful of people to goad a Government to go to war, they believe. What appeared threatening whilst in the Opposition now seems to be illusions, or hoaxes.

That may be a make-believe world for some. But in Kilinochchi, head of the LTTE Political Wing, Suppiah Palani Thamilselvan, was taking great pains to drive an important point home - that they would only discuss their demand for an Interim Self Governing Authority and nothing else. That seemed final and conclusive.

After telling that in an interview to The Sunday Times last week, Thamilselvan made the same pitch to many others. It was first to Rev. Rayappu Joseph, Bishop of Mannar. Then to a three member team from the European Union - British High Commissioner, ex soldier Steven Evans, Netherlands Ambassador Susan Blankhart and the EU Charge d' Affaires in Sri Lanka, Wouter Wilton. For good measure, he chaired a news conference thereafter to drive home the same point.

It does not take a soothsayer to say that the battle lines are now clearly defined. The nation, or for that matter the whole world knows, what the LTTE wants and what the Government says it could give. A segment of the international community, in the form of an EU delegation, had not been able to break the deadlock. Instead, they ended up castigating the LTTE for the killing sprees in the East and in the City of Colombo.

US Under Secretary of State Richard Armitage has backed the EU statement with some equally harsh words from Washington DC, but the LTTE sees Armitage & Co., on their way out in the November elections and won't lose much sleep over it.

Significantly though, the EU delegation discovered that the LTTE has dropped the Karuna Issue from their list of complaints against the Colombo government. Many analysts believe this is because the Great Prabhakaran cannot be seen to be a wimp crying about a renegade for much longer. On the contrary, the LTTE leadership wants to show that the Karuna factor is now a non-issue, and that they have successfully overcome that problem. Interestingly, the LTTE has not been heard complaining about Karuna of late. They just go about their business shooting all his followers, be they in the East or in Colombo.

In Colombo, the UPFA government was happy with the outcome of the EU delegation's visit, even if they had gone one step further than the UNF government did concerning such visits.

The UNF did not permit heads of diplomatic missions to go there. The UPFA has now lifted that ban by allowing the British High Commissioner Evans, a former British Army officer who later sat in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in London, go. His government may have banned the LTTE, and the ban is still in force, but Her Majesty's envoy deems it quite in order to visit the den of this banned organisation, and not even get to meet the numero uno.

This is, though, not the first time His Excellency Stephen Evans has trekked to the Wanni jungles. On an earlier visit, he was accompanied by his Defence Attache' Lt. Col. Mark Weldon dressed in full ceremonial attire for the occasion. So much for EU double-play. So much for their statements, and the seriousness the LTTE attaches to them.

When Thamilselvan was asked at the post-EU meeting news conference about the EU statement, Thamilselvan dismissed these visits saying the LTTE is not pressurised in any way, and that it is a good thing as far as they are concerned because these international teams get to know the LTTE's stand on issues.

So what next? Going back to her tv interview, President Kumaratunga said her Government had offered to bring law and order under control even in the LTTE-controlled areas, but the guerrillas refused. The offer was made soon after the split within the guerrilla organisation.

Does this mean going to war? Unbelievable but true. There is a big contradiction. On the one hand, Government leaders are denouncing there are threats from the LTTE and branding LTTE build-ups a hoax, at least among themselves. On the other, they are warning of sending troops to LTTE held areas, in other words going to war with them. Surely, when the Government sends troops, the LTTE is not going to welcome them with open arms. They will oppose, they will confront. And that is how it would end up in war.

But are the security forces and the police ready for such an eventuality? Have they been provided with the wherewithal they had been denied during the ceasefire? Have they been given the weaponry and equipment they have asked for? Without such preparedness, how does one order troops to war? Will they not be cannon fodder?

The UPFA Government, since coming to power, has created history. Perhaps it is the only government in a surviving democracy in the world that has an opposition within, in the form of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna. One is reminded of the days of Turkey under Kamal Ataturk who formed his own Opposition. That it is vibrant in Sri Lanka in the face of a docile, inactive and dispirited United National Party, is all the more important.

The Government not only wants to wage war with the LTTE by sending troops there. The question now is to ascertain with whom the Government does not want to wage war. It has opened up several fronts. Firstly the LTTE, then the Karuna faction, then the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, the Jathika Hela Urumaya and the United National Party. With whom are they at peace?

As usual, there was a terse two paragraph statement of the President's visit to Britain. We are told the visit is private. But she is due to be away till the end of the month away from the burdens of Presidential office and the miserable problems that her subjects have to face at 'home '.

She might just be a little careful of the current storms hitting the British isles causing havoc to its citizens, and even summer holiday-makers from overseas. She must not let the foul weather turn her bad cough into something like bronchitis, which can easily happen when out camping or engaged in some such outdoor activity. The Scottish highlands are definitely out-of-bounds for Her Excellency. Yet, it will be time away from the gathering storms in this tortured isle. A time to relax, a time to reflect.

The new peace advisor on the block
By Harinda Ranura Vidanage
The rising cost of living and the stalemate in the peace process are two of the topics that have come to rock the UPFA's honeymoon boat. Last week, a JVP delegation held emergency talks with Finance Minister Sarath Amunugama and made an appeal to reduce prices of essential goods. But a few days after the meeting, the finance minister addressing a workshop said the government was in no position to continue with subsidies and warned of tough times ahead - of course to the dismay of the JVP.

With world oil prices hitting 48-dollar mark this week, Treasury officials have been pushed to virtually scrape the bucket. Even, it took a lot of thinking and dilly-dallying before they released money for drought relief. On the peace front also the signs look bleak with the Alliance still unable to come to a common agreement.

The JVP has launched an islandwide propaganda campaign on the topic 'who is the real enemy of peace' and in these lectures, JVP leaders indirectly hit out at the government's peace secretariat chief and President Kumaratunga's other peace advisors. The JVP is especially angry about Mr. Dhanapala's Jaffna statement recognizing the LTTE as an equal partner in the peace process and giving tacit approval for the ISGA.

The President has another individual as an advisor on the peace process. This Rockefeller representative, some say, is like Wasantharaja of the golden age of the People's Alliance. But others say he is more powerful than Wasantharajah, because he has access to almost all security circles, although he is a cousin of Manikkasothy, an LTTE member who was part of the team that took former President Ranasinghe Premadasa on a wild trail.

He directly liaises with President Kumaratunga and maintains links with Mangala Samaraweera and Harim Peiris. This person is also credited with bringing LTTE peace secretariat chief Pulithevan to Colombo few months ago. Well, the JVP which berates the peace secretariat chief and his men, has more targets to aim at.

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