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Kyoto Protocol dealing with global climate change has now been ratified
by many but not the USA, the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases Many queries have been raised about whether some of this damage could have been avoided by an early warning system. Much has been debated about how the coastal towns and villages should be rebuilt and where they should be rebuilt. Climatic
changes Very few people know that climate experts predict that extreme weather events such as floods, cyclones, storms and droughts will become more frequent in the future. Very few people pay attention to climate change and global warming. There are now solid data that that human activities are resulting in the warming of our planet, faster than any time in the past 10,000 years. Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide and methane (collectively called greenhouse gases) have increased since the time of the industrial revolution. These gases function much like glass panes in a greenhouse, allowing light in, but preventing heat from escaping. This greenhouse effect, as it is commonly called, is important: without it, the earth would be too cold for humans to live; too much of it and the earth becomes too hot. During the last century, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen by twelvefold. Our excessive use of coal and oil, our innumerable vehicles that guzzle petrol and our factories are spitting out enormous quantities of CO2 into atmosphere. Meanwhile we are decimating forests that soak up CO2. Every year, about 23 billion metric tonnes of CO2 are emitted into the atmosphere. The result of these emissions and the resultant increased greenhouse effect is a distinct warming of the earth. During the last century, global temperature increased by about 0.5°C - measured as the largest increase in thousand years. The records are startling: the five hottest years on record are in the last decade and this one. The 90s were the warmest decade in a century, with 1998 as the hottest year on record. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has estimated that global temperatures could rise by 1.4°C to 5.8°C during the next century. So what is the big deal if the earth warms and the 90s were the hottest decade in a century? So what if it gets hotter still? The IPCC predicts that climate change could set off extreme weather events such as intense rainstorms and cyclones, which result in floods, and increased heat, which result in droughts. Fires, El Niño and La Niña occurrences will become more frequent they say, and arid regions in tropical countries like Sri Lanka could become deserts. Temperate regions, on the other hand, could become tropical. Indeed, 2003 recorded extreme heat waves in Europe and India, with the consequence that as many as 20,000 and 1,500 died of heatstroke in Europe and India respectively. It was also the year where cyclonic activity caused floods in Sri Lanka and left 350,000 homeless, 300 dead and many missing. Last year, there was a higher-than-expected frequency of hurricanes in southeastern USA. In total, the WHO reported that climate change caused the deaths of 150,000 people in the world in the year 2000. (These numbers pale into insignificance compared to the magnitude of deaths and displacement due to the tsunami, but note that these disasters, unlike the tsunami in the Indian Ocean, are predicted to recur and recur frequently.) The
ecological impacts Since 1979, coral reefs have been seriously affected by recurrent global mass bleaching whenever water temperatures have risen for more than 1°C for several weeks. In 1998, 16% of the world's corals were destroyed because of mass bleaching. The destruction of coral reefs affects coastal fisheries and leaves shorelines more vulnerable to erosion. Global warming also results in melting glaciers. The extent of Arctic ice and the glaciers in the European Alps have decreased drastically. Among other impacts, shrinking glaciers will seriously affect downstream water supplies. Melting glaciers in turn, result in sea-level rise. The current rate of sea-level rise is three times the historical rate and sea levels have already risen by 10-20 centimetres in the last century. The IPCC predicts that global sea levels will rise between 0.09 to 0.88 metres by 2100. This could mean that many coastal countries and cities such as Bangladesh, Mumbai and Bangkok could become inundated by seawater. In addition, climate change will affect the planet's hydrology, causing changes in seasonal flows. Dry areas will become drier, wet areas could become wetter. Warming temperatures have been shown to result in changes in the patterns of the flowering of plants in the spring, colour changes of plants in autumn, migration of animals, hatching of young and animal hibernation. When different species react differently to this change in different patterns, interactions between species could become disrupted. If many interactions are so affected, then entire communities could become disrupted, and with them, their ecosystems. Further, warmer temperatures are affecting the natural range, distributions and densities of many species. Some tropical species are expanding their ranges into temperate areas, and species adapted to the cold are finding that they can't tolerate the heat. A startling projection reveals that 15-37% of species from different regions may become extinct by 2050 because of the impacts of climate change. If the ecological effects are clearly alarming, then the economic effects are terrifying. With every change in an ecosystem, with every disruption of natural patterns, livelihoods are affected. It is predicted that the impacts of climate change on arable lands will result in economic losses of some 56 billion US$, with the greatest effects in South America, Africa and Asia. Although it has not yet been valued, sea level rise will affect the fisheries sector because 70% of the world's commercially fished species are dependent on estuarine or nearshore habitats for completion of their life cycles. It is predicted that by 2050, if present trends continue, four billion people will be affected by water shortages. This increased use of water will be seriously exacerbated by climate change. The costs of decreased agricultural production, altered flows of rivers and irrigation systems, storms that ravage coastal areas and floodplains will be astronomical. Kyoto
Protocol With the warming of the earth, mosquito species have expanded their ranges so that mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria are spreading to higher altitudes in Asia, Central Asia, Latin America; dengue to Mexico; and yellow fever to Colombia. Climate change is therefore also already affecting human health. In short, climate change will not only be damaging to livelihoods, to nature, and to economic security, but will also ultimately undermine development. It is imperative therefore, that we must know what is being done to mitigate the impacts of climate change and how we can adapt and live in world that will be so severely affected by climate change. At the famous 'Earth Summit' held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, the reality of climate change was accepted by the environmental community. A Framework Convention on Climate Change was drawn up by the United Nations. Subsequently, in 1997, 180 countries signed an amendment to this framework convention in Kyoto, Japan. Called the Kyoto Protocol, this legally binding amendment committed 38 industrialised countries, once they ratified the Protocol, to reduce the emissions of greenhouses gases in the world by 5% from 2008 to 2012. In order to become effective, the Kyoto Protocol had to be ratified by 55 parties to the Convention, and also by parties whose greenhouse gas emissions accounted for 55% of the total. It took two long years and considerable political manoeuvring for both these clauses to be satisfied, and it finally came into effect on February 15th this year. Sadly, but perhaps not surprisingly, given President George Bush's environmental policies (or lack of them), the USA, the greatest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, has not ratified this protocol. Hearteningly, some major corporations such British Petroleum among others have already reduced their emissions. Others are manufacturing Energy Star appliances that use less energy and therefore emit less CO2. Climate change has been put on the agenda as a major issue of concern in organizations such as UNEP and IUCN-The World Conservation Union. Sadly, even if the targets of the Kyoto Protocol are met and other companies reduce emissions, the current trends will probably continue for another half century, because greenhouse gases remain active in the atmosphere for a long time. Adapting
to climate change Being prepared like the proverbial boy scouts is possibly the most important thing we can do to deal with climate change. Comparisons show that the impacts of the same hurricane which hit Florida and Haiti, were felt more in Haiti because Haiti was less prepared for natural disasters. Reacting to an extreme weather event, as we are doing now as a response to the Tsunami, is one thing; anticipating climate change, planning in advance to minimise damage from an extreme weather event and responding to it in a pre-planned manner that minimises risks is the way forward. For example, when the National Weather Service issues a hurricane warning in south east USA, for an entire day, all public media stations - TV and radio - blare out a test emergency warning signal - with clear instructions on how the real warning would be played. All inhabitants are expected to tape their windows to prevent glass panes from flying and causing harm if it breaks. There are set evacuation routes and set evacuation centres which reduce panic when the warning is given. Volunteers of essential services are called in. As a graduate student in Florida, I have personally experienced the effects of a clear and planned response of an early warning system to an extreme weather event. Damage to property may not be prevented, but certainly, human lives are saved. We have learned many lessons as an aftermath of the tsunami but we need to learn to plan and be prepared for those extreme weather events that affect us year in year out. For unlike Ruskin who said that 'there is no such thing as bad weather', we know different. |
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