Will record paddy harvest benefit the poor?
The best economic news of recent months is the record Maha harvest that is being reaped. The Maha crop is expected to reach 2 million metric tonnes, about 200,000 more than the peak harvest of 2003. If the next Yala harvest were normal then total paddy production would once again reach the required consumption needs of the country, as it did in 2003.

No doubt the government would proclaim that the country has achieved self-sufficiency in rice, the cherished political goal for many decades and praise themselves for the achievement, as did the government of 2003. As we celebrate this success we should take into consideration some facts that could temper our jubilation.

What we have achieved in recent years is some years of self-sufficiency, not a situation when the harvests of these good years would provide adequate stocks for the inevitable lean years. If the goal of national policy is to achieve self-sufficiency then we must reach production levels that ensure that we have adequate stocks, so that we do not have a need to import rice.

This "self sufficiency" has been achieved with a high consumption of wheat flour that is imported. Household wheat consumption has increased from less than 30 kgs. per person to 40 kgs. over the last five decades. The total wheat imports are still higher at nearly 50 kgs. per capita. While the country's average yields are high, and yields in the dry zone areas are especially good, Sri Lanka is a high-cost producer of rice. It is this high cost of production that has prompted the World Bank to make pronouncements that the country does not have a comparative advantage and that therefore we should abandon paddy cultivation. That of course is a myopic view that is neither good economics nor good political economy.

Yet, the high cost of paddy production is a serious concern as it implies lesser access of the non-paddy producing poor to adequate food. The most serious concern however is that there is clear evidence of a significant proportion of the population not having access to adequate amounts of food. Surveys have estimated the percentage of households with inadequate incomes to obtain their food needs to be about 30 per cent.

These households do not obtain adequate food, although the country has a capacity to produce or produce and import the food requirements. Will this year's self sufficiency alter that? This possibility of inadequate food for a significant proportion of the population, despite rice self-sufficiency is most pertinent to the welfare of people.

The Household Income and Expenditure Survey of 2002 disclosed that about 30 per cent of households do not have adequate incomes to access their required food needs. The lowest income groups spent as much as 87 per cent of their income or more on food alone. In fact the lowest twenty percent of the population spent more than their incomes on food.

It is true that the current food situation is quite different to what prevailed at the time of independence. In 1951 with a population of 7.5 million, the country imported nearly one-half of its requirements of rice. In contrast, with a population of over 19 million, the country does not require to import rice. This was owing to a four-fold increase in rice production since 1950 and a shift in consumption from rice to wheat flour.

Despite this overall improvement in production and productivity of paddy production, it appears that a higher proportion of households do not have adequate food today. This is the crucial issue that must be addressed soon.

Agricultural policy and performance have an important bearing on household food security, both directly and indirectly, since nearly one half of the country's households are rural and derive incomes directly or indirectly from agricultural activity. The level of agricultural production, the productivity of crops, the cost structures of agricultural production, land tenure systems and prices of agricultural produce, have an important bearing on the capacity of a sizeable proportion of households to be food secure. Overall economic growth, diversified economic activities, which provide better employment and income generating activities and safety nets to those unable to obtain their basic food requirements, are essential strategies to reduce the number of households not obtaining their basic food requirements.

The achievement of "self-sufficiency" in paddy does not ensure food for the poor. The increase in paddy production could be helpful in achieving food security to a larger number, but that alone would not suffice. It is important to tie the increased food production in the country to policies that ensure adequate food for the poor. The capacity to ensure that the poor have access to adequate food remains one of the most important political and economic challenges for the country. There could be a true celebration when all our people have access to an adequate amount of food.

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