The Sunday Times Economic Analysis

The Sunday Times Economic Analysis By the Economist

Millions are starving on World Food Day
Today is World Food Day. The stark fact is that millions of people still go to bed hungry. Others are severely malnourished. About 800 million people in the world are undernourished. Most of the hungry are in Sub-Saharan Africa and in South Asia. In South Asia alone 312 million people are undernourished. About 185 million people are estimated to be undernourished in Sub Saharan Africa. Even in East Asia and the Pacific there are 212 million undernourished.

As many as 40% of people in South Asia lack adequate food and about 25 per cent are malnourished. This is despite the bigger countries in the region having large food stocks. For instance, India had 70 million metric tons of wheat and rice in its go downs a few years ago when people were starving. Today it has around 30 million metric tons. Sri Lanka is said to be self-sufficient in rice and paddy farmers are finding it difficult to sell their crop. Yet about a quarter of the population do not have adequate food. This demonstrates that food security is not so much an issue of adequate food supplies, but rather one of accessibility to available food. While overall economic growth and diversification are important factors in reducing poverty and ensuring national food security, agricultural development has a vital role to play in ensuring food availability at household level.

Increased agricultural production by improving incomes of rural households could enhance household access to food considerably. As a large proportion of Sri Lanka's population is dependent on agricultural incomes, directly or indirectly, the improvement of agricultural productivity through technological change is an essential strategy in achieving adequate food for a significantly large proportion of the population.There is an overabundance of rhetoric about the development of agriculture, improving the conditions of farmers and their living conditions during these days of canvassing votes among the large rural electorate. Yet the realisation of these promises is hardly likely. So when the next Food Day comes around in the coming years the story may well be the same.

There are however considerable misconceptions about the role of agriculture. For instance there is an argument that the share of agriculture in GDP should be increased. This is certainly not so. With development there is diversification of the economy and the share of agriculture should decline.

However such a decrease in the relative importance of agriculture should be achieved by increased production in industry and services and not by tardy progress in agriculture. What has been deficient in Sri Lanka is inadequate progress in the productivity of agriculture as well as in industry to cope with the problems of poverty and under nutrition.

The problem of hunger and under nourishment cannot be solved by agricultural development alone. While it is true that other sectors of the Sri Lankan economy failed to generate adequate employment opportunities, it is equally true that it is to economic diversification and development in industry and services that the country must look to for the siphoning off of the surplus population from rural areas.

Agriculture and rural incomes would benefit by such siphoning off of excess labour from rural areas. It is not a case of either industry or agriculture. What is needed is a balanced and forceful thrust in all sectors of the economy without neglecting agriculture so that the bulk of our people are fed.

As in the case of South Asia in general, in the Sri Lankan situation too, the employment opportunities in industry would be inadequate to absorb the increases in the numbers entering the labour force annually.

The country's per capita income would rise, but poverty in rural areas would remain high. Therefore agricultural policy and performance has an important bearing on household food availability, both directly and indirectly. Since about one half of the country's households are rural and derive incomes from agricultural activity, the level of agricultural production, the productivity of crops, the cost structures of agricultural production, land tenure systems and prices of agricultural produce have an important bearing on the capacity of a sizeable proportion of households to be food secure.

Increases in agricultural production, especially an increase in agricultural productivity, would enhance food availability of rural and poor households. There lies a strong logic for a sustained thrust in agricultural production, not because of national food security concerns, but the capacity of rural households to access food.

Increased agricultural production means improved food availability to about one-half of our population either directly or indirectly. Directly farm households would have more income, especially the subsistence farm households. Indirectly farm households would have greater access to food through increased incomes. Non-rural poor households would have a better access to food because of the likelihood of lower prices. Agricultural growth not only increases food supply but also enhances the capacity of the poor to access more food.

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