Financial Times

The reality of the northern powerhouse
The stock brokers, analysts and investors had a second week of nervous operations .They were more nervous of the big speech on Sunday 27th November – “Mahaveerer Day” remembering the fallen heroes of the northern leadership than the outcome of the presidential elections.

By the time you read this, the reality of the Northern powerhouse would be evident for the second time in a month, the first time being the election of the President of Sri Lanka. What is in the “illusive mind”, his longer term intents and rationale for the path he chose to take in the presidential elections will probably be clearer after the speech to be broadcast live to the world. The stock market and big business fears the consequential risks and likely outcomes of this speech more than the policy statement of the new President or even the new budget giving effect to a “chinthana”.

The speculation on what the world will hear is so varied, starting from an explanation of the stand taken by the Northern brothers and sisters in the recent elections, to a response to the new policy statement from the South of an all party approach to selecting the road to travel towards peace, replacement of the Cease Fire Agreement with a more effective one and the substitution of the P-TOMS agreement which the present President himself introduced in Parliament a few months ago with a new authority where many actors will have a say in the tsunami reconstruction. There is even more worrisome speculation including taking over of Jaffna, blowing up key targets in Colombo, using the small airpower for a suicide attacks, withdrawal from the Cease Fire Agreement before talks to replace even begin and even a possible unilateral declaration of independence.

A professional scenario planner will consider the potential risks from the above announcements converting to consequential business risk exposures which may include security risks to assets, property and operations in the south, security rating on physical and financial risks being down graded by the international community, a travel warning being re-imposed and impacting on tourism and business visitor arrivals, a reduced level of foreign direct investments, and imposition of requirements to have letters of credit validated by foreign banks etc.

The mind of the Wise Old Owl goes back to the year end last year, where following the tsunami with its consequential loss of life, damage to property and disruption of livelihoods there was a national outpouring of grief, care for victims irrespective of ethnicity, language and religion and holding of hands from the top of the leadership apex to the common citizens all committed to support each other to raise the nation from the calamity and rise from the ashes as a proud nation once again. Where are we 11months later today; a divided nation, a polarized society, with no national leadership, possible risk of internal strife extending to even a war situation, possible wasteful expenditure on a war and war related reconstruction rather than a restoration and improvement of the national infrastructure.

Simon Elegant in an article titled “The light that came from darkness – the tsunami was a catastrophe, but helped peace to arrive in Ache” writes “When I landed in Banda Aceh a few days after the tsunami struck on December 26 last year, I was surprised that among the jumble of feelings swirling through me, one of the strongest was also one I least expected: anger. Of course, there were other emotions; disbelieving horror at the devastation; pain for the suffering of the living and those who died; fear as the buildings still standing were rattled by repeated after shocks; even the guilty relief that I wasn’t out there searching for my family among the muddy ruins. But beneath all that there was a steady flow of outrage; why, of all people on the planet, was it the Acehnese who had been hit by this calamity? It seemed so unfair. For 30 years and more, they had been caught in between the Indonesian armed forces and secessionist rebels, and suffered a living hell of rape, torture and violent death” and “Now, finally they may have something more tangible to hope for. On August 15, representatives of the Indonesian government and the rebels of the Free Aceh Movement are scheduled to sign a peace treaty in Helsinki, the fruits of months of hard bargaining.

Both sides have made concessions on points that had killed previous talks and there is little debate about what brought about the new flexibility; the tsunami.”

Oh, why have our leaders both South and North not genuinely looked for options to deliver for the future generations’ peace and prosperity rather than seek narrow personal gains? Wake up civil society that is your responsibility tomorrow.

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