Presidential power-dynamics behind Tiger insanity plea
Blasting claymore mines has established itself as the LTTE's method of commemorating the tsunami dead. The Acehnese rebels made peace in a year after the tsunami, but the LTTE made dead bodies.

How is that for a compare and contrast?
Next to this tendency of the LTTE, the fact that this year Prabhakaran also becomes the grinch that stole the Christmas seems a mere detail.
Whoever wanted these recent attacks, his timing is so bizarre that it appears being bizarre was the only calculation. It seems they figure out in the Wanni that if the impression is successfully conveyed that the LTTE is gone fully mad, the rest of the world will consider that a plea of insanity. In a criminal court, a successful plea of insanity is the surest way of avoiding a death sentence.

In the court of world opinion, the European Union will perhaps consider the LTTE's pleas of insanity, as would other entities such as the United Nations. The European Union might think on the lines of "we can't expect the insane to abide by regular law, the only way is to have them institutionalized.''

Institutionalization is accomplished however by placing restrictions on movement. The LTTE has to be confined, physically. This, the European Union or any other is not willing to do. But short of sending troops to physically restrict the LTTE to the Wanni, the EU is flirting with the idea of banning the LTTE.

The organization responds by blasting more claymore mines, and creating more madness. The European Union sends a message, which says the escalation of violence has to be stemmed in Sri Lanka, which infers that the LTTE has been targeting the Sri Lankan state.
But the EU officials know that the LTTE's claymore mine blitzes are attacks against the EU as much as they are against the Sri Lankan state. It's the LTTE's ultimate dare -- dare you ban us.

It's working too.
Busybodies here have already gone running to the EU, making plaintive appeals against banning the LTTE, claming an outright ban would disgruntle the Tigers. This is like saying if you institutionalize the madman, you run the risk of alienating him from society. Its like saying let a thousand madmen bloom.

Mahinda Rajapakse is the man who the centre left forces of Sri Lankan politics targeted for a long time as leadership material.
Now, he alone faces the tactical madman phase of the LTTE -- the LTTE's insanity plea. It's a lot of tosh that the leadership mantle fell on Rajapakse by accident, even though his good luck charm is working overtime. Its clear that Rajapakse is blessed with an abundance of luck, almost as abundantly as Ranil Wickremesinghe is plagued by misfortune.
But, Rajapakse didn't chance upon the presidency. He was the marked man of the centre left forces for decades now, particularly the centre left Sinhala Buddhists -- an agglomeration of forces that constitute almost half of the country's political bulk.

So, the electorate is underestimating his almost sneak advent to power after a close-shave presidential election. Sri Lanka lacked leadership material sorely in recent times, and that is apart from Chandrika Kumaratunge, an acknowledged hard-nosed sagacious and seasoned campaigner, now very quickly going to seed.

Man for woman there was no match for Chandrika and such lack of leadership was making this country the laughing stock of South Asia, because our parliament seemed to be peopled by half-men, thugs, and eunuchs.

Its not easy eclipsing the sun, but Rajapakse has done it by eclipsing the shining star of Sri Lanka's political constellation, Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunge.. Serendipitously almost, the country has found a leader - - even though no serendipity was involved, as its now known that Rajapakse was weaned for political office from the time he was made Sri Rohana Janaranjana by the indigenous Buddhist upwardly mobile political conclaves; ( …such conclaves exist strictly in my imagination, but you know which forces I am talking about.)

Now, Rajapakse's task is to deliver us a good country, and deliver the country from the LTTE. His predicament can be imagined this way: he can tackle the madman by letting him be reasonably eccentric in the peripheries. This means that he can try to make the LTTE get away with some crimes, but keep the organization off the national center stage. He can do so by ignoring the LTTE to some extent, and not letting it get away with murder as well as the publicity of a President reacting to its every murmur.

Or, he can let the madman takeover the agenda, and make Sri Lanka a madhouse. He needs more than a good Army commander to accomplish all this --- since it's a pity that he cannot buy himself another Lakshman Kadirgarmar with all the money in the world. But almost as much as Rajapakse needs a good army, he needs a good internationalist.

His internationalist would be a savvy operator who works a two-pronged strategy. One is to get the international court to throw out the LTTE's plea of insanity.

The other is to ensure that the organization does not get the oxygen of publicity. Over time, they all seem to have forgotten Margaret Thatcher's schoolmarmish rule for dealing with the IRA; "do not give them the oxygen of media space.''

George W. Bush has forgotten this advice as well, and it makes us wonder who is having a memory problem - - Thatcher with her Alzheimers disease, or Bush. Bush has not been able to stanch the flow of publicity that the Al-Quaida is getting.

America's stand up comedians are tripping up Bush because they see Osama bin Laden as equally useful grist as Bush is, for their one-liners. The result? With a publicity glut, the Al Quaida enjoys center stage, and ergo, a long reach that is disproportionate to its real strength on the ground.

To an extent, Rajapakse has to ignore the LTTE, and get the international community and the press to ignore the LTTE. The LTTE is craving the lunatic's attention; it's behaving like the flasher who won't flash at the street corner, unless there are shocked schoolgirls to watch him.

The last thing Rajapakse, India, Nirupama Rao and all else concerned need, is to be mortified by this lunacy. Let the LTTE keep pissing on the fire hydrant, but do not capture the photograph and place it on the front page of the national dailies.

This de-induction of the LTTE from center stage, has to be done by a team -- Diaspora, international good Samaritans if any, and the media. The new president swears by pragmatism; perhaps his real pragmatic task would be to be somewhat nonchalant and less uptight about the LTTE.

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