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The Sunday Times International - Comment

South Asian coopertion
Opportunity for peace in India’s offer and Pakistan’s response
The lead story last week on the front page of The Sunday Times International would have come as hope-inspiring news to all those who believe that the prosperity of South Asia and the possibility of meaningful South Asian regional cooperation are linked to permanent peace between India and Pakistan.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in a landmark speech, which had the potential to change the political landscape of South Asia, offered a treaty of peace, security and friendship to Pakistan.

"We are not afraid of discussing Jammu and Kashmir or of finding pragmatic, practical solutions to resolve this issue as well. I have often said that borders cannot be redrawn but we can work towards making them irrelevant — towards making them just lines on a map," Dr. Singh said, launching a cross-border bus service between two Sikh holy sites in India and Pakistan.

The Indian Prime Minister's offer drew a cautious initial welcome from Pakistan, but Islamabad has now hailed it as a positive step. The Indian offer and the Pakistani response have set the stage for a possible path-breaking visit to Islamabad by the Indian Premier somewhere in July or August this year. And if the interim period between now and the visit is free of any hostile incident or saber-rattling, the possibility of working out a final deal or a deal towards a friendship treaty is not out of the question.

Despite this optimism, there lurk some doubts in our mind. Will the two nuclear neighbours bury the hatchet and the differences that have led them to three wars in the past 58 years? Can the Kashmir problem be solved in a manner acceptable to both these countries and the people of the troubled province?
Both India and Pakistan claim the whole of Kashmir, which is divided along a ceasefire line now known as the Line of Control, with India controlling two thirds of the province and Pakistan the rest. Pakistan has been insisting that a plebiscite be held in Kashmir as per a UN resolution to decide the fate of Kashmir while India has resisted such a call, saying Kashmir, including the part administered by Pakistan, is an integral part of India.

Dr. Singh's peace offer is also seen as India's response to various proposals mooted by Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf in recent times — including demilitarization of the Line of Control and self-rule for Kashmiris.

Dr. Singh's offer of a friendship treaty is not the first such initiative. In the past, too, there had been offers of such treaties but little progress was made because of the two countries' unwillingness to compromise on Kashmir.
Seven years ago, the then Indian Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, also launched a bus service between the two countries. Dubbing the service as a "peace journey", Mr. Vajpayee took the bus journey to Lahore where he was welcomed by Prime Minister Nawaz Sherif and the two leaders capped the historic visit with a Lahore Declaration whereby the two countries agreed to solve all issues by peaceful means. Alas, within a few months of the declaration, the two countries were on the brink of a major war in the Kargil sector on the Line of Control with their fingers more or less on the nuclear button.

We are not citing this incident to say that conflict is real and peace elusive, but to drive home a point that no peace treaty between India and Pakistan can be effective or meaningful unless there is agreement on the fate of Kashmir.

If, as some Indian policymakers insist, the two countries concentrate on improving relations leaving Kashmir aside, the problem could have been solved 58 years ago. The reality is that the Kashmiri question is still at the core of mistrust and hostility between the two countries. There is a strong correlation between the Kashmir issue and peace in South Asia.

Dr. Singh appears to recognize the ground realities although he said last week that it would be a mistake to link normalization of other relations with finding a solution to the Jammu and Kashmir issue. But he hinted at a desire to chart a new course and open a path to enter into a meaningful dialogue on Kashmir.
"I am convinced we can move forward, if all concerned are willing to accept the ground realities, if all concerned take a long view of history, of our destiny. The time has come to leave behind the animosities and misgivings of the past and to think the unthinkable of moving together."

It cannot be gainsaid that there is an opportunity for peace in New Delhi's offer and Islamabad's positive response. Cynics may say that the peace offer, which comes two weeks after India and the United States entered into a civilian nuclear agreement — a deal that has left Pakistan ruing — is a move aimed at reassuring the international community. They may say India wants to show the world that a nuclear India is no threat to its neighbours in a bid to persuade the countries in the Nuclear Supply Group to relax restrictions and provide India with uranium, heavy water and other materials required for its nuclear facilities.

Whatever India's aim or motive, the offer of a peace treaty faces many a domestic hurdle within India. The opposition BJP may welcome the peace offer but will lead a countrywide agitation if Dr. Singh makes any concessions on Kashmir. That's politics.

We are positive that if the question of Kashmir is put to a nationwide referendum in both India and Pakistan, the people's verdict will be for peace. However, a solution to the Kashmir problem could and should not be achieved without the consent of the divided people living in the peace-starved and under-developed Kashmir. - Ameen Izzadeen

Why is Kashmir disputed?
The territory of Kashmir was hotly contested even before India and Pakistan won their independence from Britain in August 1947. Under the partition plan provided by the Indian Independence Act of 1947, Kashmir was free to accede to India or Pakistan.

The Maharaja, Hari Singh, wanted to stay independent but eventually decided to accede to India, signing over key powers to the Indian Government - in return for military aid and a promised referendum.

Since then, the territory has been the flashpoint for two of the three India-Pakistan wars: the first in 1947-8, the second in 1965. In 1999, India fought a brief but bitter conflict with Pakistani-backed forces who had infiltrated Indian-controlled territory in the Kargil area.

In addition to the rival claims of Delhi and Islamabad to the territory, there has been a growing and often violent separatist movement against Indian rule in Kashmir since 1989. - Courtesy BBC.com

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