All ears on Prabha's message

• Theories galore on build-up to the heroes' day
• Premier on diplomatic offensive to curb LTTE's arms operations

By Iqbal Athas

With just a day to go for Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran's "Maveerar (Great Heroes) Day" address, the debate continued in the past many days among experts in State intelligence agencies - why have the Tiger guerrillas not staged dramatic attacks ahead of tomorrow's major event?

Opinions were varied. Some held the view that the LTTE was exercising deliberate restraint in the wake of conditions becoming favourable to them in the international arena. Others felt such action would follow soon after Mr. Prabhakaran spells out his plans for the coming year. There was also a handful who argued, despite a continuing military build up, that they were now weaker and not capable of any major offensive military action.

Preparations in Kilinochchi for "Maveerar (Great Heroes) Day”

Last year, he urged President Mahinda Rajapaksa to come up with a "reasonable political framework that will satisfy the aspirations of the Tamil people." Pointing out that "this is our urgent and final appeal," he warned "we will, next year, in solidarity with our people, intensify our struggle for self determination, our struggle for national liberation to establish self-government in our homeland." That was an ultimatum. Instead of a political framework, the guerrillas are now locked in the ongoing undeclared Eelam War IV.

If opinion in the intelligence community is divided about plans ahead of the LTTE leader's address, one thing is still very clear. Security Forces and Police action in the past many weeks have acted as a serious deterrent to guerrillas staging attacks on key targets in the south or assassinating VIPs. Particularly in the City and suburbs, guerrilla links were badly severed by the intense security measures that were put in place. Intelligence agencies were able to learn of groups from the Wanni and Batticaloa who had entered the City on suicide missions. Preventive measures forced them to disperse.

No doubt, they caused severe hardships to the public.

Some had to wait for hours to either enter or leave the City, business establishments suffered losses and there were a multitude of other problems. But the good side - it prevented the guerrillas from staging a major attack. Needless to say, such high levels of vigilance have to be continued to keep the guerrillas at bay. That is a daunting task.

On Friday, Police arrested a female suicide bomber in Colombo. That led to Terrorism Investigation Division (TID) detectives later arresting the staff member of a newly launched Sinhala journal. The latter is alleged to have helped the suicide bomber to identify some locations and personalities. They are now under interrogation.

The recent Security Forces actions in the East coupled with a few in the North were also intended to keep the guerrillas on the hop. The move has heightened fears in guerrilla-controlled Wanni where the "heroes week" observances are under way. It began on November 20 after Theepan, one of the military wing leaders together with the Government Agent for Kilinochchi, S. Rasanayagam, garlanded the portraits of cadres who were killed in action. The venue for some major events tomorrow is being kept a closely-guarded secret for fear of aerial attacks. Yet, the guerrilla held town of Kilinochchi has been decorated with pandals across the road. Makeshift structures near the A-9 highway are bedecked with portraits of dead cadres. (See pictures on this page) Civilians in the area have been asked to visit them and pay their respects.

Portraits of dead LTTE cadres inside a temporary shed in Kilinochchi

Despite the absence of any major attacks, state intelligence agencies have confirmed hectic guerrilla military preparations. In the Pooneryn sector, west of the A-9 highway, guerrilla cadres were being amassed. New gun positions were coming up. Smuggling of military hardware was continuing. This is despite the interception and destruction of some fishing trawlers headed towards the shore by the Navy. These trawlers had been loaded with military hardware from ships in international waters. Intelligence sources say some of the trawlers were able to successfully reach the shore and unload their cargo.

The smuggling in of military hardware by the LTTE has continued to cause concern to the Government. Prime Minister, Ratnasiri Wickremanayake is to lead a top level delegation to Kampuchea. As a special envoy of President Mahinda Rajapaksa, his mission is to urge the government there to put a stop to LTTE acquiring weapons through illegal channels in their country. Premier Wickremanayake undertook a similar mission to Indonesia in October this year. As a result, diplomatic consultations are now under way to sign a Memorandum of Understanding with Jakarta for intelligence and other co-operation in this regard. Such an MoU now exists between Kampuchea and Sri Lanka.

Tensions have heightened between the LTTE and its breakaway faction led by Karuna alias Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan in the wake of tomorrow's "maveerar" day address. Six Tamil National Alliance (TNA) parliamentarians have complained of a plot to kill them if they do not resign their seats by tomorrow. They are four MPs from the Batticaloa district, T. Kanagasabai, Thangeswari Kathiraman, S. Jeyanandamoorthy, P. Ariyanethran, Ampara district MP K. Pathmanathan and National List MP C. Chandranehru.

In a letter to W.J. M. Lokubandara, Speaker, dated November 21, the MPs have said:

"On Sunday the 19th of November 2006 between 8.00 pm and 8.30 pm, we the undersigned Members of Parliament from the Batticaloa and Amparai Districts and the National List of the Tamil National Alliance (ITAK) received death threats over the phone. We were informed specifically that if we did not resign from being Members of Parliament we would be killed.

"The person who spoke to each of us introduced himself as Gunanan of Thamil Eelam Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP) Batticaloa Office. He warned that if the eight MPs belonging to the Tamil National Alliance (ITAK) from the Eastern Province did not resign by the 27th of November 2006, all eight MPs will end up receiving the "Maamanithar" (Great Human Being) award posthumously as all eight MPs would be killed. The caller stated that this was the order of their leader.

"Considering the fact that the Tamil National Alliance (ITAK) has already lost several of its members due to assassinations, these latest death threats must be viewed with utmost seriousness. We would like to take this opportunity to point out that MPs Joseph Pararajasingham and Nadarajah Raviraj were also assassinated after receive similar death threats.

"You will appreciate that these threats to our lives greatly affect our ability to duly perform our duties. Therefore in view of the aforementioned we strongly urge you as the custodian of the rights and privileges of the Members of Parliament to take all necessary steps to enable us to safely carry out our duties by the people who voted us to office."

Parliamentary sources said Mr. Lokubandara has already asked Police Chief Victor Perera to enhance security for the TNA parliamentarians. A TMVP representative denied that death threats were issued by any of its members.

The LTTE attacks on Security Forces, since the election of President Rajapaksa last year, and its escalation in August, this year, following attempts to lay siege on the Jaffna peninsula, led to their condemnation both locally and internationally. However, after the devastating debacle in Muhamalai in October, the ground realities began to change considerably.

A focal point was the LTTE demand to re-open the A-9 (Muhamalai end) of the highway, an issue on which the October 28-29 peace talks in Geneva collapsed. The Donor Co-chairs of the peace process, during their two-day meeting in Washington this week endorsed this appeal. Their joint statement noted, "The Co-chairs remind the parties of their responsibility to respect all rulings of the SLMM and to implement the Ceasefire Agreement fully, including the re-opening of the A-9 highway." A similar appeal was also made to President Rajapaksa on behalf of the Government of India by Foreign Secretary, Shivshankar Mennon this week. This, no doubt, has created favourable conditions for the LTTE internationally.

In the light of this, Mr. Prabhakaran will no doubt catalogue a number of issues; particularly those he deems have caused severe hardships on the people of the North and East. Main among them will be food, fuel and medicine shortages. Then there will be allegations on Security Forces actions against civilians, particularly the mortar and rocket attacks at Vakarai. Others sure to be included are: the demerger of the North and East, the assassination of parliamentarian Nadarajah Raviraj and the Government's alleged failure to protect Tamil MPs, the alleged arrest and disappearance of Tamil youth, the alleged involvement of the Karuna faction with the military and the Government's alleged failure to abide by the Ceasefire Agreement.

Last year, Mr. Prabhakaran described President Rajapaksa to be a realist, committed to pragmatic politics and declared, "we wish to find out, first of all, how he is going to handle the peace process and whether he will offer justice to our people." What would he say of President Rajapaksa tomorrow? More importantly, what would be his message to the Rajapaksa administration? Only hours remain for the answers to emerge.

Whatever that may be, with hopes of peace talks receding increasingly, fears of more battles loom large.