Tensions high as China's top communists prepare to meet

BEIJING, Saturday (AFP) - China's Communist Party elite will gather on Monday for the nation's most important political event in five years -- a meeting that is expected to see President Hu Jintao tighten his grip on power. At the party's Congress, careers of top cadres will be killed off and rising stars are expected to emerge as successors to Hu, while revamped policy blueprints will be unveiled.

Tensions have been high in Beijing leading into the Congress, with dozens of dissidents detained or placed under surveillance, although their calls for democracy and greater human rights have filtered out to foreign media. In further efforts to silence dissent during the Congress, swarms of extra police have taken to Beijing's streets, while China's propaganda machine has gone into overdrive extolling the party's achievements.

The Congress will take place behind closed doors at the Great Hall of the People, bringing together more than 2,000 delegates who will vote on how the party should proceed over the next five years. For Hu, the top priority is to shake off the lingering influence of his predecessor, Jiang Zemin, and consolidate his own power so he can have a stronger hand in pushing forward his agenda of building a “harmonious society”.

“There is little doubt that after the 17th Congress... Hu Jintao's prestige as a stable and unifying, if not flashy, team captain will have been strengthened,” said Sidney Rittenberg, an American writer and businessman who has had close ties with China since the 1940s.

To determine how much he has bolstered his hold over other top cadres, all eyes will be on the reshuffle of the nine-member Standing Committee of the Politburo, which is the most powerful organ in the party. Hu Jintao, 64, and Premier Wen Jiabao, 65, are certainties to remain but other future positions have been the subject of fierce speculation, particularly the fate of those seen aligned with Jiang.

The leadership reshuffle will also be closely watched to see who emerges as the most likely candidate to assume the party's top post from Hu at the next Congress in 2012, and hence become communist China's next president. Li Keqiang, the 52-year-old party boss of the northeastern province of Liaoning and an ally of Hu, is seen as a front-runner to be promoted into the Politburo Standing Committee.

Another is Xi Jinping, 54, the party chief of Shanghai and one of China's so-called “princelings”, the sons of former communist heavyweights who can thank their pedigree for at least some of their political status. The reshuffle will be revealed when the new Standing Committee walks out on stage on the final day of the Congress, which is expected to last one week although no timeframe has been announced.

The gathering will equally be closely watched to see which direction Hu wants to take China's 1.3 billion people over the next five years. The official Xinhua news agency reported on Friday that the party's constitution would be amended. Although it did not say specifically how, it is widely expected that the constitution will be changed to include Hu's ideology of advancing “scientific development”.