Political Column

It was the crack of dawn on Wednesday when video crews, photographers, reporters and foreign correspondents gathered at the Information Department at Narahenpita. After short-eats and tea, some two hours later, they boarded a bus to cover an event some three and half-hours away.

The route taken by the bus reminded one of the old adage Parangiya Kotte Giya Wagey (or the circuitous route the invading Portuguese took to Kotte). From Borella, the bus wound its way to Nawala, Nugegoda, Pitakotte to Beddegana. From there they made their way to Parliament. After security checks the photographers rushed to the gallery to set up their equipment and be ready for President Mahinda Rajapaksa. He was wearing a different hat this time. As Finance Minister, he was to present the Government's Budget.

Moments later, Police came into the gallery and unceremoniously ushered the photographers out. The state-run Rupavahini, ITN and the state run press were the only exception. It was no doubt a repeat of what happened when the Budget was presented last year. But, this time the Department of Information had invited the media for the coverage. However, the Department claimed it had advised the media on Tuesday that only Rupavahini and Sri Lanka Broadcasting Corporation of the electronic media would be allowed into the press gallery for 'live' coverage.

Forced out of the media gallery, photographers bundled their equipment in anger and rushed downstairs. This was to take photographs of President Rajapaksa arriving in Parliament. But he had already come in. After the faux pas, the Presidential Security Division (PSD) blamed the security authorities in Parliament. The latter in turn said they had nothing to do with it. The Department of Information kept quiet whilst all this buck-passing went on.

If herding the media hours earlier and taking them through a circuitous route to Parliament was the responsibility of the Department of Information, then there is no gainsaying that they should have facilitated photo coverage by advising the media on the do's and don'ts. In not doing that, they only deprived President Rajapaksa of greater media exposure. This indeed is from a Department tasked among other matters to disseminate information about the Government and its leaders. If that is bad enough, Government leaders and officials failed to realise that the lament of the photographers, that they were not allowed to follow the old tradition of recording the Minister of Finance presenting the Budget in Parliament. Whoever was responsible for the mess-up has changed the course of history. Probably this is the New Order that is being ushered in.

The Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the United National Party (UNP) Ranil Wickremasinghe tried to make capital of the situation. He was in the lift with, among others, the leader of the Jatika Hela Urumaya (JHU) Ven. Medananda Ellawela Thera, against whom he had a running battle not so long ago on the Mercedes Benz vehicle which the Buddhist monk has obtained on a duty-free permit and later loaned it to a businessman.

When the two Party leaders were about to alight from the lift, the discarded photographers were loitering around not knowing what to do with themselves. Wickremesinghe kept the lift door open inviting the cameramen to take pictures of him with the JHU leader, while the monk light-heartedly told Wickremesinghe "Mama Ivarai" (I'm finished).

The Budget yet remained the focal point of political attention. After-all, a Government could fall on it. Within hours of its delivery, for the first time on Wednesday morning, the Jantha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) criticised the Budget in a statement. They said it did not address the needs of the people at a time when they were facing several challenges. The assertions were to raise the all important question - will the JVP vote against the budget during the second reading on November 19?

Little wonder, all eyes were on JVP's Wimal Weerawansa when the Budget debate began on Friday. He followed UNP's Kabir Hashim, who opened for the Opposition and Basil Rajapaksa, who did so for the Government. Weerawansa took a few pot shots at Rajapaksa. He said he had hoped that the new Government MP would engage in a Budget debate. Instead, his hour-long discourse was a Budget speech by itself, said Weerawansa. Perhaps, Basil was trying to outdo brother Mahinda, he noted. When it came towards the end of the speech, Weerawansa said most of those listening in would have expected him to declare what his party would do when it came to voting. He said that such a decision would be made known only on November 19 when the vote on the second reading is taken.

There were clear signs that the Government tried to woo the JVP, which is a staunch backer of the war against Tiger guerrillas. At pre-dawn on Wednesday, hours ahead of the presentation of the Budget, Security Forces launched an offensive from their defended localities at Muhamalai. The idea was to seize terrain held by the guerrillas. Even before the offensive was launched, posters urging the public to forget their mouths and stomachs when troops were on the doorsteps of Wanni appeared in parts of the City. The guerrillas offered fierce resistance. There were casualties on both sides.

Opposition and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe visited both the National and the Sri Jayawardenapura hospitals on Thursday (Deepavali day) to see wounded soldiers. He was accompanied by Ravi Karunanayake, MP. Mr. Karunanayake told The Sunday Times that at National Hospital there were 48 officers and men. At Sri Jayawardenapura Hospital there were 22 of them. "Our leader was told that over 70 were at the base hospital in Anuradhapura, he added. According to one opposition source, the Rupavahini that was broadcasting President Rajapaksa's speech live on TV was ready to air reports of troops capturing guerrilla territory. However, that did not materialise.

At least for the moment, the move to create greater euphoria in the South cushioning any adverse impact on the Budget and woo the JVP did not work. If the JVP (37 votes) against the Budget, the Opposition would need to muster only six votes in Parliament to defeat it. Mindful of the fact that Speaker W.J.M. Lokubandara, is a UNP MP.

The constituent parties of the Government have 117 votes in their favour. JVP support for the opposition would mean their 37 votes together with the Opposition's 68 (UNP 44, TNA 22 and SLFP (M) 2) would add up to 106. If the UNP succeeds in getting seven MPs from the Government side (even without Speaker Lokubandara) it would become a fait accompli for the Government. There are two Independent MPs, one-time JHU MP Ven. Uduwe Dhammaloka Thera and one-time JVP frontliner Nandana Gunathillake, but their respective votes may cancel each other out. However, there is always a slip between the cup and the lip in political numbers games.

For some weeks now, the unlikely combination of the UNP and the JVP working together has been a political development that has aroused some interest both among political observers - and the Government. The common intention is to attack the Government, but the UNP wishes to go that extra mile in defeating the Government, something the JVP is still undecided about.
Some trial runs were done by the two parties in the last fortnight or so, in trying to bring down the Chief Ministers of various Provinces. The results have been mixed. There was no concrete joint action between the UNP and the JVP - just a march-separately-strike-together approach.

In the Western Province Provincial Council, the UNP went and introduced an amendment during its Budget demanding that the entire Council vote on each and every money bill or by-law to be passed, severely clipping the wings of the Chief Minister. The JVP, however, wanted no truck in a deal and wanted Cooray kicked out of office on charges of corruption.

But the JVP did not mind a replacement for Cooray in the form of Nandana Mendis, brother of former UNP Minister Wijeyapala Mendis, which indicated that their wrath was on Cooray and not really on the SLFP. Cooray grabbed the life-line and accepted the amendment. He survived the vote and lives to tell the tale.

In the other Provincial Councils, different things happened. In Sabaragamuwa and the North Central Province, similar amendments were accepted by the Chief Ministers. In the Central Province, the UNP did not put forward the amendment. And in the Uva Province, a strange thing happened when a JVP Councillor voted against his own party whip in favour of the Chief Minister ensuring the Chief Minister survived and inviting for the Councillor a disciplinary inquiry from within his party.

This went to show that Provincial Councillors from both the UNP and JVP were a law unto themselves. This was classic case of the tail wagging the head, especially in the case of the UNP where the party hierarchy was trying to reach out to the JVP in Parliament, but playing ducks and drakes in the Provincial Councils, missing a golden opportunity to forge a new anti-Government Alliance.

The UNP hierarchy tried to down play all this by saying that the defeat of the Chief Minister did not mean automatic elections would follow. President's Rule could have been imposed through the Governor, they say. But political strategy as far as any Opposition is concerned demands forcing the Government into making such mistakes. Quite apart from the underlining solidarity factor with a Party long its sworn enemy.

When the JVP complained to the UNP that their support was being solicited in Parliament to defeat the Government during the Budget vote, but the JVP's request for UNP support to defeat the SLFP Chief Ministers was not reciprocated, Ravi Karunanayake offered to defeat the SLFP in the Southern Provincial Council, and even to hand it over to the JVP. The JVP has yet to respond to this offer.

How the JVP will vote at the second reading of the Budget therefore remains an unknown factor. There are two schools of thought within the party, and it is said that the party's Politburo and its Central Committee are also on different racks at the moment.

If last week, in the wake of the killing of the LTTE's Political wing leader S.P. Thamilselvan, the JVP was inclined to tilt towards voting for the Budget, or at least helping its passage by abstaining from the vote, the pendulum swung this week towards a vote against the Budget.

The Opposition frontliners were rolling up their sleeves this week to get down to serious lobbying next week. It was quite a scene to watch Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and other UNP frontbenchers like Joseph Michael Perera, John Amaratunga, Ravi Karunanayake, Tissa Attanayake and Renuka Herath sit and listen to Wimal Weerawansa's opening salvo against the Budget on behalf of the JVP, while from his own side, the only frontbencher present was trade union leader K. D. Lal Kantha.

JVP holds the key on Budget