Situation Report

One of the vagaries of war in any part of the world is how successes and failures follow each other. However, in Sri Lanka this axiom assumes greater significance. It speaks of how the undeclared Eelam War IV is intensifying to higher levels. That is notwithstanding the three mechanisms put in place to prevent such escalation. They are the Ceasefire Agreement of February 2002, the resultant presence of Scandinavian monitors to oversee it and the peace process. All three, it appears, are breathing their last. Both the Government and the Tiger guerrillas have clearly defined themselves to fight it out as events of the recent weeks clearly show.

Before the crack of dawn on Wednesday, troops broke out from their defended localities astride Muhamalai. It lay on the northern end of the thin isthmus that links mainland Sri Lanka to the Jaffna peninsula. The entry exit point or the gateway to the Jaffna peninsula from the Wanni is located almost in the middle of this defence line. Artillery began to rain on guerrilla positions. Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) located in the rear of the advancing troops also fired at guerrilla targets. Giving air cover were Mi-24 helicopter gun-ships of the Air Force.

Their mission was to advance in the direction of Kilinochchi, the guerrilla heartland by seizing territory dominated by them. They smashed through the first line of guerrilla defences and advanced. Dawn had broken. Rear elements were holding the bunkers and the lengthy mound that formed their defences. Their colleagues forged ahead.

The guerrillas retaliated with mortar, machine gun, rocket propelled grenades and small arms fire. Fierce gun battles ensued. This is where the grit and valour of the brave troops was exhibited in abundance. Some of them came to the aid of their colleagues who were either hit by gunfire or were trapped. Troops soon realised that the guerrillas had allowed them to advance some distance before offering heavy resistance. A tactical withdrawal became necessary. Therefore, they made a gradual pull back. They had to give up the guerrilla defence line they were holding for over an hour.

There is no gainsaying that troops from seven battalions that took part in the offensive were bold enough to thrust their way forward. In war, making tactical withdrawals in the light of enemy surprises or traps is quite common. That is how they re-group, re-arm and ready themselves to fight another day. The elements involved in the operation are: 4th battalion, Sri Lanka Light Infantry (SLLI), 7th battalion Vijayaba Infantry Regiment (VIR), 5th battalion Gemunu Watch GW), 1st battalion Vijayaba Infantry Regiment (VIR), 6th battalion Sri Lanka Army Field Engineers, 1st battalion Sri Lanka Light Infantry (SLLI) and 4th battalion Gemunu Watch (GW).

It would have been different if the troops did succeed in capturing guerrilla held terrain south of the Muhamalai defence lines. This is one occasion when the country would have known the good news within minutes. There is no doubt President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was reading the budget speech heard and seen live on television by millions of Sri Lankans would have interrupted the budget speech to make it known. That was not to be. Troops who broke out around 5.30 a.m. were back in the original positions in some three hours.

Official accounts said 11 soldiers were killed and 41 injured. However, details obtained by The Sunday Times show the figures are higher. They cannot be revealed. It is not because of earning the Government's crowning honour of being a "traitor." In this instance, the disclosure could endanger sources. That is at a time when a major hunt is on, through various channels and various means, to identify sources. According to ground troops, military officials say, 50 to 60 Tiger guerrillas were killed. They said that radio intercepts had shown that the guerrillas had called for "five to six" vehicles for casualty evacuation. The guerrillas also tried to hide their casualty counts by claiming that only one cadre was killed. However, independent verification of guerrilla deaths and injuries is not possible.

Since the ceasefire of 2002, this is the second time that the military made a major thrust to advance towards guerrilla territory from the Muhamalai defences. The first came on October 11, last year, when troops backed by battle tanks and armoured personnel carriers advanced from Muhamalai. (Situation Report - October 15 2006). Kfir gournd attack aircraft then bombed guerrilla targets. Figures published in The Sunday Times after this offensive showed that 133 soldiers were killed. A further 483 were injured, among them 283 described as P1 or serious cases.

Since the Government formally announced that it had re-captured the entirety of the Eastern Province after driving the guerrillas out, military activity has centred in the North. Until last Wednesday's offensive, troops have been fighting bitter battles on the western side of their defended localities in Omanthai since July this year. The guerrillas have been offering stiff resistance. Periodic skirmishes still continue.

The cycle of events in the recent weeks portend a grim picture both in respect of war and peace. On October 15 the guerrillas attacked the Army's detachment at Talgasmankada in the Yala National Park. This was followed up, just a week later, with a devastating pre-dawn attack on the Sri Lanka Air Force base in Anuradhapura on October 22. The two incidents came just weeks ahead of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran's "Maveerar(Great Heroes) Day" address on November 27. It was not only to demonstrate that the guerrillas had not lost their military capability. It was also to catalogue the attacks to drive home a point.

However, the gloss of that campaign was lost when the Sri Lanka Air Force dropped bombs at a building near the Kilinochchi town on November 2. That killed LTTE Political Wing leader, Suppiah Paramu Thamilselvan, his confidante Alex (Anpumani) and four others. A sixth died later. In its campaign against the Tiger guerrillas, it was a victory for the Government. The political leadership were happy that a prize target has been taken. However, in the Wanni, it appears to have altered course.

LTTE leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran declared that in killing Mr. Thamilselvan, the Government had killed the "dove of peace." T. Shivashankar, better known as Pottu Amman gave the main oration at Thamilselvan's funeral. He is the head of the LTTE intelligence wing, one of the most wanted men in the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, one time Prime Minister of India. Heads of intelligence service, be it from the state or those from non-state entities, seldom make public appearances or pose for photographs. In this case, Pottu Amman made his speech wearing Tiger stripe uniform and a cap on his head.

He blamed the international community for what he called their uneven judgement in applying norms to the LTTE and the Government. "A few Sri Lankan soldiers, perhaps thousands, or a few Sinhala leaders cannot match the price for Thamilselvan. The relentless efforts to achieve Tamil Eelam is the price. The Sinhala nation should realise that we will never stop in this effort," he had declared according to a report in the Tamilnet web site.

Former Sri Lanka policeman, P. Nadesan, who has succeeded as head of the LTTE Political Wing took a swipe at Norway, the peace facilitator. He said "the official silence of peace facilitator Norway, in regard to the killing of Thamilselvan, is viewed with serious concern and is regretted by the Tamil population and the Tigers." The remarks came despite statements by Erik Solheim, Minister for International Development and the Special Envoy, Jon Hansen Bauer. The latter had in fact taken part in a ceremony in Oslo to condole the death of the LTTE political wing leader.

Added to these are editorial comments and commentaries in a number of pro-LTTE newspapers and websites criticising the international community. Whilst there is no doubt the LTTE will now step up offensive action, the question that begs answer is whether it is laying the groundwork to veer away from what remains of the peace process.

Would that mean walking out of the Ceasefire Agreement? Such a move would, in accordance with the CFA, require two-weeks notice be given to the peace facilitator. On the other hand, even if they do not quit the CFA, in the backdrop of the new developments, the likelihood of the LTTE responding to any peace initiatives appears extremely remote.

This naturally brings to question the Government's own response. The Government has repeatedly assured several countries, particularly neighbouring India, that proposals to end the ethnic conflict would soon be formulated by the All Party Representative Committee (APRC). These proposals have been delayed periodically and there is speculation now of it being made public by January, next year. How viable would such proposals be in the light of the new Tiger guerrilla stance to step up attacks?

The Government would have to equip the Armed Forces and the Police further to meet the newer and growing threats. On Friday, Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake told Parliament a Joint Operations Centre would be set up in Tissamaharama to co-ordinate security in that area. This is the outcome of the guerrilla attack inside Yala national park and subsequent reports of killings of civilians in a bordering village.

Yala and its environs earlier came under the Army's Area Headquarters in Galle. Thereafter, in February, last year, a sub area headquarters was set up in Hambantota. Colonel Anura Wijekoon was placed in charge. Now, Brigadier Sudantha Ranasinghe has been named as Area Commander Hambantota.

This week, Army Headquarters named Major General Upali Edirisinghe as General Officer Commanding (GOC) the 11 Division of the Army. He was Director-General General Staff at Army Headquarters. The Chief of Staff, Major General Lawrence Fernando, will now overlook the post of DGGS. This Division covers the Yala National Park area too. He succeeds Major General Sanath Karunaratne, who is now Military Co-ordinating Officer for the Anuradhapura District.

I had erred last week in wrongly identifying an Air Force Chinese built PT-6 as a K-8 intermediate jet trainer and the tail of an Mi-17 as that on an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). The picture of the PT-6 is published on this page again today with the correct caption. I apologise to readers of The Sunday Times for this mistake.

The ebullient defence spokesperson and Minister of Foreign Employment, Keheliya Rambukwella, was waxing eloquent at Monday's news conference at the Media Centre for National Security. Almost at the end of the event in what seemed an afterthought, he waved the Situation Report page in The Sunday Times and declared that the "expert in defence reporting" cannot even identify an aircraft. Once again, I had honorary mention in the defence.lk website too.

At a time when his compatriots in the defence establishment have chosen to call me a "traitor," the title of "expert" from Mr. Rambukwella is worthy indeed. I thank him for that. Yet, I have never claimed to be an expert and will not do so in the future too. I would only say I have been a student who has witnessed the transition from Tamil moderation to militancy since its inception in the 1970s.

A placard carried by a demonstrator who staged a protest near my house, organised by sections of the Government, in August, this year, after I exposed the controversial MiG-27 procurement deal declared I am "only a journalist." Indeed I am. Like all others, I make mistakes. However, I am never hesitant to correct them when I realise there has been one. I have often emphasised this in previous Situation Reports.

This brings us to the question of aircraft/helicopters/UAVs destroyed or damaged during the October 22 attack. Details are now unfolding before a six-member Air Force Court of Inquiry headed by Chief of Staff, Air Vice Marshal P.B. Premachandra. Other members are Air Commodore B.L.W. Balasuriya, Group Captain Lal Perera, Group Captain W.A. Nanayakkara, Wing Commander Nissanka Jayawardena and Wing Commander Prasanna Ekanayake. Another Air Force Court of Inquiry headed by Group Captain Royce Gunaratna is probing the crash of the Bell 212 helicopter at Doramadalawa in Mihintale.

It is established that the following were destroyed : Two Mil Mi-17 helicopters, one 206 Bell Jetranger, a Beechcraft, one Chinese built K-8 trainer, one Mi-24 helicopter gun-ship, two Chinese built PT-6 trainers and two brand new Blue Horizon II UAVs. The latter is not part of the Air Force assets and belonged to an Israeli supplier. They were to be flight tested on October 26 but the attack had occurred earlier. This is in addition to the Bell-212 helicopter that crashed.

The task before the Court of Inquiry headed by Air Vice Marshal Premachandra, among other matters, is to determine which of the damaged SLAF assets are economically viable to be repaired. The rest would thus become junk. That will include five PT-6 trainers inside the hangar that have been exposed to the heat from anti tank fire or grenade attack.

The extreme heat came from the Mi-17 and the Bell Jetranger 206 that were set ablaze. Some were partly burnt. The perspex canopies have melted.

Another is the Searcher Mk II UAV. Its two wings had been damaged and the engine cowlings made out of fibreglass warped. Four Cessna 150s that belonged to the Air Force have also been damaged. The four SF 260 TP Siai Marchetti bombers are not being considered a financial loss since they were unserviceable and lay parked there. Together with three Mi-17 helicopters that were not damaged, the total number of Air Force assets at the Anuradhapura airbase was thus 30.

Acts of bravery by some of the airmen during the guerrilla attack on the airbase are now unfolding before the SLAF Court of Inquiry. One of the heroes is an Air Force Corporal who stood near the Control Tower and took a number of hits with his sniper rifle. He is said to have killed at least eight intruding guerrillas. Some of them had detonated their 'suicide belts' and died on the runway.

Members of the tri service Court of Inquiry headed by the Commander of the Navy, Vice Admiral Wasantha Karannagoda, visited the airbase last weekend. They interviewed officers and other ranks besides making an on-the-spot study on how the defences were breached. A more extended inquiry into all aspects is being conducted by the Criminal Investigation Department. That is under the direct charge of D.W. Prathapasinghe, DIG (CID).

Whilst several probes are under way to identify lapses that led to the devastating attack at the Anuradhapura airbase, the task of enhancing security measures in most parts of the country has fallen on the security establishment. As the guerrillas plan to trigger off more attacks, some ahead of their "great heroes" day, maintaining vigilance at the highest level has become the undaunting task for Security Forces and the Police.

Muhamalai : The attack and the withdrawal