Political Column

In a sense, both the Government and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) emerged victorious last Monday during the vote on the second reading of the budget. By clearing the first hurdle over the Budget vote for its survival, the Government showed it was retaining its majority no matter what hype was being created about its downfall. Now, it would have to do so again on December 14 when the final voting (3rd reading of the Budget) after the Committee stage of the debate is concluded. This, no doubt, will be a make-or-break event and the political crescendo over this is building up.

Last Monday the Government received 118 votes as against the Opposition's 102. Two Tamil National Alliance MPs were not present. One is M.K. Eelavendran who is now on a visit to Canada. According to TNA sources, he is expected to quit his parliamentary seat and emigrate to Canada where he has won asylum. This week, Canadian Intelligence authorities are reported to have visited Eelavendran's sister's house and made inquiries about his whereabouts. The TNA MP has said that he was meeting with a Canadian politician sympathetic to the LTTE. Canada has banned the LTTE.

The other is T. Kanagasabai whose son-in-law S. Sajitharan was kidnapped. Here again, TNA sources claim he heeded calls by leading Government personalities to keep away. Later, his son-in-law who was missing was brought to Colombo and handed over to his custody. Wijedasa Rajapakshe and JVP MP Nandana Goonetillke too abstained. The other who did not vote was the Speaker, V.J.M. Loku Bandara.

The mid-December voting is particularly important in the backdrop of the JVP assertion that its decision to oppose the Budget, demonstrated last Monday, will not be changed when it comes to the next vote. In other words, the JVP will once again vote against the Budget. There is no doubt the venom of Government's propagandists being directed at the JVP only went to harden the JVP stance. JHU's Environment Minister Champika Ranawaka's remarsk that the plantation-based Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) were "more patriotic" than the JVP took the cake. These are days where words like "nationalism" and "patriotism" are sole monopolies of Government leaders and their sycophantic stooges. Any one who expresses a dissenting view or is not in agreement with what the Government says is liberally branded as "traitor".

Powerful new entrants to the political and defence arena are the fountains of patriotism from which this new doctrine is flowing. That possibly is why someone said a long time ago that patriotism could also be the last refuge of the scoundrel. JVP's Anura Kumara Dissanayake made the point in no unmistaken terms. He told Parliament in general, but the Government benches in particular, that patriotism is not something like honey you can pour over the body. It is something that must come from within your bosom, and that it was not something to use as a catch-word whenever you want something out of another - like a vote in the Budget.

Barely 24 hours after the Government won the vote on the second reading, a Government dignitary, a powerful new entrant, was at the helm of a poster and e-mail campaign. It bunched together UNP leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe, TNA leader, Rajavarothayam Sampanthan, LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran and JVP's Wimal Weerawansa as "traitors." One of the posters was titled "Drohiyo Anduraganna" (or identify the enemies) and bore the photographs of all four. Another said "Ali- Koti -Seenuwa Havula Paradei" (Elephant, Tiger and Bell - the UNP and JVP party symbols respectively - alliance is defeated. They were touted as "eka vallai pol" or coconuts from the same cluster. These posters asserted the "brave soldiers" to advance in the battlefront. They are now playing politics with the military too. They have made them a political tool or even an electorate for the Government's political leaders at the highest levels. State media organizations have already been ordered to go on the offensive against the JVP for what a top Government leader claims is the "anti national" stance of its MPs.

This has led to a flurry of activity both on the Government and the Opposition sides. Some Government leaders are trying to woo a few UNPers to cross over. UNP's Ratnapuira MP Mahinda Rathnatilleke was a case in point before the Budget. Recently, Rathnatilleke has been hospitalized after a blackout while driving up a hill, and was lucky to be hospitalised. He had talked of quitting politics and handing over the torch to his son. The Government seemed to have 'got round' the younger Rathnatilleke to convince his father, who had fallen on hard times, to cross-over.

Overtures are being made, not on matters of principle, or offers of financial benefits, but over other payoffs too. Whilst this is under way, influential sections are goading retired Armed Forces commanders who won promotions recently from President Rajapaksa, to step up their campaign to forge a National Government. This campaign, like the move by the group of UNP 'pole vaulters' who have proposed a "national government" has both the backing and sponsorship of the highest levels of the government. With equal vigour, some opposition politicians are also busy trying to woo a few Government MPs. Mangala Samaraweera, one of the National Congress leaders, told a news conference early this week he was confident the Government would be defeated at the December 14 vote. He and his colleague, Sripathi Sooriyarachchi are also busy making contact with their erstwhile parliamentary colleagues in the SLFP.

Soon after the voting on the second reading last Monday, there were several interesting scenes in the lobbies of Parliament. In one, UNP ally Mano Ganeshan shook Anura Kumara Dissanayake's hands for what he called an "excellent speech" he had made against the Government. Following suit was N. Srikantha of the TNA who walked up to JVP Parliamentary Group leader Wimal Weerawansa, thrust his hand and declared ""I want to wish you over the new solidarity we have established." A bewildered Weerawansa responded "What solidarity? We have no solidarity with you. You all are with the LTTE and we have nothing to do with that. We only voted against the Government's budget." An embarrassed Srikantha moved away to speak to Opposition Leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Wickremesinghe and Ravi Karunanayake were talking to JVP parliamentarian Piyasiri Wijenaike. It was Wijenaike who asked Wickremesinghe "what will happen on December 14?". The UNP leader was non committal but declared his party planned to initiate trade union action of its own when the JVP launches planned strikes in January next year. It almost appeared as if the UNP was looking for a period in Opposition beyond the Budget. There was also a humourous moment when Wickremesinghe was speaking with JVP national list MP Wasantha Samarasinghe. The subject was 'Jathika Arthikaya' (or national economy). Another JVPer, Kandy District MP Navaratne Banda moved in to remark that the UNP leader only knew about "Vijathika Arthika" (foreign economies).

Sections of the Opposition were exploring the possibility of still pushing for a debate on the vote of no-confidence against Tourism Minister, Milinda Moragoda, by obtaining a date ahead of the final voting of the Budget on December 14. Whether it will materialize or not remains in the hands of the Government. This section believes that could be the opportunity to test the strength of the Opposition. With the JVP strongly backing the motion, supporters from other quarters including dissident MP Wijedasa Rajapakshe is said to be certainty.

The JVP proved the proverb eating one's cake and having it is possible. They wanted to oppose the Budget and at the same time ensure the Government did not fall as a result of it. The former (eating the cake) was to express their bitterness over both the Budget and the displeasure with the Government over a variety of issues. The latter (having it) was to prevent a fall of the Government which may also see the beginning of their own fall. A future parliamentary general election would mean the party will not be in a position to retain the 38 seats it holds now, were it to contest outside an alliance, however much it may try.

But for Government leaders, who spent many a nervous moment in the past weeks, the idea of an election was furthest from their mind. Yet, both the Government and the Opposition seemed to be sitting on the razor's edge. For the former, the spectre of a defeat was highly worrying. For the latter, the prospects of a victory were so close but not too sure whether it would arrive.

The fact that a parliamentary general election was not the first option of the Government in the event of a defeat last Monday became clear just the previous day. This was at the funeral of Sri Lanka's first most gracious first lady under the executive presidency, Elena, relict of the late J.R. Jayewardene. There was a chance meeting at "Braemar," the private residence of the late Jayewardene, last Saturday between President Mahinda Rajapaksa and Opposition Leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe. Rajapaksa was to remark that in the event of a defeat of the Budget vote, he would not dissolve Parliament.

Instead, he said, he would invite Wickremesinghe to form a Government. Whether he meant it or not, only Rajapaksa would know. There was a school that felt that Rajapaksa would merely change the Prime Minister (Ratnasiri Wickramanayake) and appoint another Government in Parliament. But that would also only be a stop-gap because ultimately the Budget, or even a Vote on Account has to be passed for the next financial year.

But were Rajapaksa to actually appoint Wickremesinghe Prime Minister, a succeeding UNP Government would have to share all the burdens placed on the people by the Rajapaksa administration. Wickremesinghe, responded saying that the people should decide on a Government. Which means an election. That put paid to the matter.

The next day, the JVP's Politburo took a decision to oppose the Budget during the vote on the second reading. The decision was taken after a lengthy discussion. It was decided that the 37 MPs (Nandana Gunatilleke, their one-time Presidential candidate nominee does not attend meetings and eventually abstained from voting) should maintain strict confidentiality about the decision. On Monday morning, the MPs gathered again at the Party Headquarters at Battaramulla to hear their leader, Somawansa Amerasinghe. He reasoned out why the JVP should strongly oppose the Budget. He also emphasised the need to keep their move a secret until the vote is taken.

Thus all eyes - and ears - were on JVP's Anura Kumara Dissanayake when he spoke on the final day of the Budget. He was bitterly critical of the Rajapaksa administration. But when he ended his speech, he still gave no indication of the party's decision. All he said was that the Party had come to a united decision (there were some reports based on a radio interview its Secretary Tilvin Silva had said that the Party had decided to opt to give its MPs the right to exercise a Conscience Vote, i.e. to vote according to their conscience as opposed to the party whip).

Dissanayake said that this united vote would have a significant impact on the future of the country. The suspense throughout that day was as engrossing as that of an Agatha Christie novel or as chilling as an Alfred Hitchcock movie.
Thus the JVP stance did not become known until the 105th vote was taken. It was the vote of JVP Galle district MP Ajit Kumar. It was only then that some Opposition MPs began thumping on their tables. Government MPs looked crest fallen. Yet, the JVP decision came too late and as a surprise, a pleasant surprise to those in the Opposition. Those from the Government benches who were coaxed into voting against were cautious lest they get identified and become targets. So they chose to wait until conditions became conducive. Now, with the JVP asserting that it is firmly decided it would oppose the Budget on December 14, the stakes are becoming higher.

And political activity by the Opposition benchers also reached a peak. On Wednesday, eyebrows were raised when UNP parliamentarian Dr. Jayalath Jayawardena paid a visit to TNA MP Selvan Adaikalanathan at his official Talawatugoda residence. Thereafter, the two of them had travelled in one vehicle though their destination was not known. On Thursday, Adaikalanathan also had a meeting in Parliament with CWC leader Arumugam Thondaman and his MPs. There was speculation that Sri Lanka Muslim Congress leader Rauff Hakeem had also joined them though Congress sources refused to confirm this.

When the UNP's Management Committee met there were two non members. They were Mangala Samaraweera and Sripathi Sooriyarachchi. The duo had been meeting UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe about venues and dates for their next round of public rallies when it over-lapped into the Management Committee meeting that was to discuss the same issue. The subject of discussion, among other matters, was the defeat of the SLFP-controlled Southern Provincial Council. If both the JVP and the UNP members go together, they could easily have defeated the SLFP Chief Minister. But on Thursday, when the Council met both sides opposed the governing faction but walked out when it came to voting time. The UNP had offered the Council to the JVP, but both parties feared the President would dissolve the Council, place it under Governor's rule and then call for elections. The JVP was uncertain whether they could romp home winners at an election. But the fact that the UNP and JVP decided to take joint political action was significant. Similar situations exist in the Western and Sabaragamuwa Provincial Councils too.

In the Central Provincial Council, trouble is brewing with the CWC leader, Arumugam Thondaman, seeking an additional Ministership. The issue had been discussed by Thondaman with Government leaders but the matter is yet to be resolved. Thodaman, as usual sees this as the time to strike. His grandfather, the sage Saumyamoorthi Thondaman would always compare his demands to the making of thosai, the staple food of his people. He says timing is of essence. One must make sure when to pull it out of the fire or else it will be either un-cooked or burnt.

Speculation was rife, therefore, that Thondaman would do yet another jump. He is more comfortable with the UNP. So is the SLMC leadership. In fact, both these parties contested the 2004 elections together with the UNP. It is the absence of anti-defection laws that see them in power and in place. On Friday SLMC MP Cegu Issadeen had attended Friday prayers and a group of Muslims had besieged him and demanded he do something to reverse the recent decision to ban the use of loud-speakers.

Issadeen had said that the law was also for Buddhists, but those who had come for prayer were not impressed. Issadeen left saying he would take the matter up with the President, and even said that if the President did not comply, they would vote against the Budget.

Some of the Tamil MPs in the Government have also told Basil Rajapaksa that they had been approached by some TNA MPs to defeat the Government at the 3rd reading, and that they feared this could be a message from the LTTE. But they are said to have sent messages saying they were willing to join the UNP in forming a Government, but to have some "Sinhalese" go across first.
That is what Mangala Samaraweera is desperately wanting to ensure. He is scouting for MPs from within the ranks of the SLFP. His bete noir and one-time Cabinet colleague S.B. Dissanayake says the UNP must win back at least some of the 17 MPs who defected to join the Rajapaksa administration.

Some senior UNPers have said that they were not happy in the SLFP-led Government but felt obliged not to let down Ministers Karu Jayasuriya and Milinda Moragoda who led the defection. This shows that Rajapaksa was no political greenhorn when he opted to sacrifice the support of the 38 JVP MPs when he took in 17 UNP MPs back in February this year. It was these 17 UNP votes that tilted the balance in his favour at the 2nd reading of the Budget.

The Government, on the other hand will leave no stone unturned to win more UNP MPs like Rathnatilleke to its own benches, and hope against hope, that the JVP would change its mind before the 3rd reading.

Commonwealth blunder

While both sides are frantically looking out for possible cross-overs, this week saw Rajapaksa blow his fuse, so to say, with one of the early cross-overs, Rohitha Bogollagama, his Foreign Minister for what he did in Kampala on Thursday over the vote to suspend Pakistan from the Commonwealth.

Pakistan has been our steadfast supporter during our battle with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) for nearly twenty five years now. Through military dictators and democratic leaders, Pakistan has not wavered. Bogollagama has been at sea on these matters. He first issued a statement asking that Pakistan be given time to restore democracy in that country. Then, the CMAG (Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group) of which Sri Lanka is a member Bogollagama gave Sri Lanka's assent to suspend Pakistan. The Commonwealth 'whites' viz., Britain, Australia, Canada and the New Zealand Secretary General Don McKinnon had prevailed upon Bogollagama, or so it seemed.

On the fateful that 9/11 in 2001, Commonwealth's outgoing Secretary General, McKinnon was in Sri Lanka. Terrorism was not even on the agenda for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) that year in Brisbane, Australia. When our Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar had asked "why not", Mr. McKinnon had said it was not a priority. Mr. Kadirgamar had pressed for its inclusion, and this is how The Sunday Times of 16 September, 2001 reported what happened:

“When Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar had emphatically said ‘yes’ to Sri Lanka's insistence, Mr. McKinnon is reported to have made a face and nodded". The next day, the day after 9/11, the Commonwealth SG issued a statement that read "We in the Commonwealth have always condemned and opposed terrorism and will continue to do so". Terrorism got into the agenda for the CHOGM in three weeks time at the Brisbane summit. But that was another matter.

President Rajapaksa was furious. The Defence Establishment in Colombo was furious. President Rajapaksa, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces had also arrived in Uganda for the Commonwealth Summit and was apprised of what had happened. Damage control measures were quickly put into place. The Government announced that the Cabinet had decided not to support the suspension of Pakistan. There was much speculation as to whether the matter was brought up at all at the cabinet meeting presided over by Rajapaksa on Wednesday.

Some Ministers say it was, as the last item on the agenda, other Ministers simply dodge the issue by saying they did not hear anything. Certainly, it was not important enough for the Government Information Department to include in the list of cabinet decisions they regularly issue the next day to the media. So, with the President away, and the faux pas hitting the headlines, Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickramanayake was asked to summon a special cabinet meeting on Friday for the specific purpose of reversing the Bogollagama vote the previous day in Uganda.

UNP's frontliner Lakshman Kiriella raised the question in Parliament on Friday, and Deputy Foreign Minister Hussain Bhaila conceded that his Minister had voted for the suspension of Pakistan, and that he was unaware of the 'Cabinet decision' that was taken. The defence seemed worse than the offence. Even the Pakistan diplomats in Colombo were asking, not without some sarcasm, whether Sri Lanka's Foreign Minister does not carry a mobile phone nowadays.

On Saturday, however, the Pakistan mission in Colombo issued a brief statement thanking the Sri Lanka Government for withdrawing its support for the suspension of Pakistan and for the Foreign Minister's role in asking that Pakistan be given space to restore democracy in that country. Nary a word about Sri Lanka being part of Commonwealth consensus for Pakistan's suspension.

But it was President Rajapaksa who was not amused. He told Deputy Minister Bhaila what a mess the Minister and his team had made of the whole episode. He said something like "These people cant do anything. With all my problems I came here to do some good for the country. These devils have ruined me. Now we have to placate the Pakistanis. Eventually I have come here to rectify the crazy things these chaps have done. These chaps only take small fellows and go round the world. What Commonwealth for them, I say. At least take some officials along who can study issues and work according to a plan".

Of course the comments are biting when told in the official language; "Munta kisi deyak karanna be ne. Mama mey tharam prashna thiyagena mehe arway ape ratata hondak karannai. May yakshayo maawa ka wa ne. dan apita pakistanaya shape karannai wela thiyenne. Anthimata mam mehe arway munge modakang bayrala dennai. Mung nikan podi evun aragena ravun gahana ekai karanne. Mun kavada karapu commonwealth da isey. Ekko danna kiyana official-la genalla issue tika study karala plan ekak anuwa weda karanna onay……………".

Unfortunately, we are unable to proceed with the remainder of the sentence. Such was the Presidential wrath on the diplomatic faux pas in Kampala.

D-Day on December 14