Political Column

The controversial 'Pakistan issue' spilled over to Sri Lanka's Parliament this week when Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama came and defended the country's performance at the recent Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Kampala, Uganda.

Last week in this column, we reported how President Mahinda Rajapaksa went ballistics when he heard that Bogollagama and the Foreign Office officials there had blundered by allowing the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG), of which Sri Lanka was a member, to suspend Pakistan from the 54-nation grouping of former British colonies.

"Munta mona Commonwealth da I say" was his remark when, among other racy things he had to say about the performance of his foreign policy seniors for letting down one of Sri Lanka's best friends in its war against terrorism.

The Pakistan High Commission in Colombo also got into the act, and defended the Rajapaksa administration as it seems that, after the intervention of the President himself at CHOGM, expressing Colombo's opposition to the suspension, the government in Islamabad had expressed its thanks. It was a case of all's well that ends well.

But what happened in between is still a matter of discussion in the diplomatic and political circles in Sri Lanka, especially the manner in which the country's foreign policy is being managed or mismanaged as the case may be, With the return of those who went to Kampala, the sequence of events of what happened can be stitched together in this way:

The decision to put Pakistan on the agenda, and identify it for suspension was taken a long time ago, starting in September in New York when the CMAG met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly sessions, and then on November 12 when it met in London to place the matter on the agenda in Kampala.

Bogollagama and his delegation including Sri Lanka's High Commissioner to UK, Kshenuka Senewiratne, arrive in Kampala a day before the Foreign Ministerial segment of CHOGM. Ms. Senewiratne immediately briefs Bogollagama of what's in store on the Pakistan issue. A decision is taken to defend Pakistan by asking for more space, a position Bogollagama took up in London a fortnight earlier.

Foreign Secretary Palitha Kohona then arrives in Kampala the next day. CMAG begins that day with a breakfast meeting with deliberations on Pakistan moving slowly. However, by late afternoon the momentum picks up and then proceeds at a feverish pace as Britain, Australia and the New Zealand Secretary General Don Mckinnon set the tone for "some action" against Pakistan for what its military dictator Gen. Pervez Musharraf is doing in that country. Sri Lanka and Malaysia resist.

By early evening, Mahinda Rajapaksa arrives in that city to be greeted only by our High Commissioner in Kenya, Mohamed Keeran who is also accredited to Uganda. As Bogollagama is at the CMAG meeting, he instructs Kohona to brief the President on developments.
Rajapaksa responds by asking to "keep batting on for Pakistan - approach it like a Test match, not a one-day match". He then retires early as he is not feeling too well.

Four Sri Lankans attend the CMAG meeting that goes on close to midnight - Bogollagama, Kohona, Senewirathe and Max Keegel, the 1st secretary in London. They keep calling for 'space' for Musharraf, but they seem a little lost about the procedures adopted by the Commonwealth, especially the definition -- 'decision by consensus'.

Kohona takes the view that "Sri Lanka will fight to have CMAG record its dissenting view", a method adopted by the UN, which is where Kohona spent much time as a diplomat for Australia. As the clock strikes the witching hour, and CMAG looks to finalise 'the decision by consensus' (not by vote) and Sri Lanka having repeated its position a dozen times over, it seems clear that Sri Lanka's voice was meant to be ignored.

Bogollagama pressed hard, but his voice was a voice in the wilderness. He didn't seem to have the authority to swing the Commonwealth in any direction. He then tells his officials, "we should walk out and let these (whites) do whatever….", but Senewiratne calms him down and says that they will have to go by the 'decision by consensus'. Kohona says that Sri Lanka must get its position reflected in the final statement. In a moment of confusion, they all look to talk to Rajapaksa, but before they could do that, CMAG asserts that a decision has been reached. The Sri Lanka delegation remains mum, and numb. Crest fallen they return to their hotel late into the night.

CHOGM is scheduled to open the next morning (Nov. 23) with all the pomp and pageantry of an African festival with the Queen of England, the head of the Commonwealth in attendance. Bogollagama and others prepare to proceed to the conference centre, Kohona moves into tell Rajapaksa getting ready at the hotel where he is lodged with other Heads of Government, what happened on the Pakistan issue.

It is about 8 in the morning, Kampala time, an hour to go for the summit to begin. Presidential Secretary Lalith Weeratunge is also present, but he is doing some paper work brought from Colombo and received in Kampala. Rajapaksa's initial reaction to the decision to suspend Pakistan was an angry one.

" I say, ogolla mokada ka lay ? Mang kiwwane thawa may prashne adala kal ganna kiyala. Ai eka karanna beriwuney", he asks. (I say, what did you guys go and do? I told you'll to drag this issue and ask for some time. Why couldn't you do that?).

Kohona explains the nuances of "decision by consensus' and how the Sri Lanka delegation could probably have recorded a dissenting position. He was to say something like " Sir, may UN/multilateral wala apita pulluwaan consensus ekata amatharawa apay position eka record karanna". (In UN/multilateral matters you can record your position in addition to a consensus vote).

Rajapaksa listened attentively to this point, but then 'lost it again' when he was made to feel that such a vote might strengthen Sri Lanka's position with the democratic opposition in Pakistan and how the Australians had suggested we should have handled the situation at the CMAG.

He immediately gets on the telephone to Minister Jeyeraj Fernandopulle, Deputy Foreign Minister Bhaila and his secretary Gamini Senerath to organise some 'damage control' exercise in Colombo. This is a Friday, and Parliament was in session. A parliamentary office aide brought a message to Chief Government Whip Jeyeraj Fernandopulle that the President was on the telephone. Fernandopulle informed Leader of the House Nimal Siripla Silva about the call and went out of the Chamber. Rajapaksa briefed him about what had happened in Kampala, and said that though Bogollagama had opposed the suspension of Pakistan, he had not 'voted' against it.

Shortly thereafter, an emergency Cabinet meeting was summoned, with Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickrmanayake presiding specifically to announce the reversal of Sri Lanka's position on the suspension of Pakistan.

In desperation, the Government even tried to lie its way out by saying that a Cabinet decision had been taken previously, but that Bogollagama had left for Kampala and that this decision could not be conveyed to him in time. The defence seemed worse than the offence. The Government Information Department announcements of cabinet decisions made no reference to this decision, but then how could it? There was no such decision.

In Kampala, Rajapaksa goes to the opening ceremony, in a bad mood. All hell has broken loose in Colombo in the meantime, as news spreads after the CMAG announcement that the Commonwealth has decided to suspend Pakistan and that Sri Lanka gave its nod for the move.

At the conference hall, the Pakistan delegation comes up to Bogollagama and asks for a time slot for Gen. Musharraf to speak to Rajapaksa. After the call, Rajapaksa seems to have calmed down, but not without giving Bogollagama and his entourage a thorough dressing down.

The handling of this affaire reflected very poorly on the Rajapaksa administration, and particularly the manner in which its foreign policy was being handled. On Nov. 12 after the London meeting of CMAG, at which Bogollagama was present, there was an official statement issued which made some strong observations against the Musharraf administration.

Among the things it said was that the "CMAG condemned the abrogation of the Constitution of Pakistan…"; " The Group expressed its grave concern at the dismissal of the Chief Justice…"; "CMAG also noted with concern the date on which President Musharraf had promised to step down as Chief of Army Staff"; "The Group agreed that the aforementioned developments seriously violated the Commonwealth's fundamental political values"; and eventually, this - "CMAG agreed that at its next meeting on 22 November if, after review of progress, Pakistan has failed to implement these necessary measures, it will suspend Pakistan from the Councils of the Commonwealth".

So it is clear that nothing was surprisingly sprung on Sri Lanka. And it would have been incumbent on the part of Bogallagama as Foreign Minister to have taken this important matter of foreign policy up with the President, and the country to have come to some firm position.

While Rajapaksa tried to do the best he could of a bad situation at the summit after the CMAG fiasco, the Kampala Communiqué issued after CHOGM said that " Heads (of Government) took note of CMAG's suspension of Pakistan… they expressed their serious disappointment that President Musharraf had failed to implement the decision of Heads at their last CHOGM … etc., " and went to endorse the decision of CMAG to review progress in Pakistan.

But the Pakistan problem is probably not Rajapaksa's main concern right now. It would be how the voting would pan out in less than a fortnight's time, when the third and final reading of the Budget takes place. The voting pattern of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) was a crucial factor at the second reading and will be during the third reading as well. They have 38 votes that can tilt the balance, especially so if the minority parties find the wind blowing in a different direction and set their sails accordingly.

The last time round, the first JVP vote cast was the 105th vote taken and until then there was utmost suspense as to which way they would voice their vote. By then some MPs said to have been 'on the fence' had opted to stay within the Government benches with a wait-and-see policy.

Last Sunday evening, the JVP's decision-making Politburo met. The Party's General Secretary Tilvin Silva returned to the country the same day, and was driven straight from the airport to the meeting. Party leader Somawansa Amarasinghe told the Politburo members that they should address their minds to the dangers posed by the LTTE. "We must be more attentive", he said, but added that there was no need to change the decision the party took on November 18 (on the second reading of the vote). He said that 'some people' do not seem to be quite clear about what the party decided at that time. Some observers felt he may have referred to speculation that the JVP took a decision on how to vote only after seeing the Government had the majority to survive the vote.

Tilvin Silva concurred with what his party leader had said and suggested that the party's position should be further explained to the public. The Politburo made no decisions at this meeting, which would infer that there has been no change in the manner in which the JVP has decided to vote when the third and final reading of the Budget is taken up.

Two days after the JVP Politburo met, the LTTE leader made his annual Maveerar address, and then came the bombing of a shop at the Nugegoda junction killing 20 people. The JVP leader had separate meetings with Politburo members, and those in Parliament, he urged them to speak out against the atrocities committed by the LTTE.

He said attacks on civilians was to pave the way for international intervention in Sri Lanka, and asked the party's Parliamentary group leader Wimal Weerawansa to mobilise the party MPs on this score. While the countless number of separate Ministries was being discussed, some for less than an hour, giving Ministers enough opportunities to wriggle out of difficult situations, the behind-the-scene activities were what provided the buzz inside Parliament.

The Opposition requires some seven more seats to turn defeat into victory at the third reading of the Budget which will trigger either a short-lived minority Government or a General Election. Once again, it was what the minority parties, the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) would do that became the hot topic of discussion. The word doing the rounds is that the CWC leadership has indicated a willingness to turn tables, but that the majority of the SLMC MPs may not be willing to follow suit.

CWC leader Arumugam Thondaman has the backing of his MPs other than for Deputy Tourism Minister Faizer Mustapha and Badulla MP Suresh Vadivel -- both of whom have made it clear that they will vote for the Rajapaksa Budget come what may. V. Puthirasigamani is of course a UNP MP who votes with the Government in the crazy scheme of things in Parliament nowadays.

SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem may envy Thodaman to some extent because he doesn't have that kind of backing from his own party MPs. The SLMC is split down the middle with Hakeem and party General Secretary Hassan Ali treated as pro-UNPers, but the likes of Basheer Segu Dawood, K.A. Baiz, S. Nijamudeen, M. Faizal Cassim in one camp, Rishard Badu-id-dine in another and M.N. Abdul Majeed and Ameer Ali in yet another camp, but all of them would opt to stay with the Government, provided however, there is no clear swing to the Opposition on Dec. 14.

SLFP breakaways Mangala Samaraweera and Sripathy Suriyarachchi are busy-busy trying to win over some SLFP MPs who are in the half way house. MPs Wijedasa Rajapaksa, Arjuna Ranatunga and Dilan Perera have been targeted as likely candidates, apart from Anura Bandaranaike who is continuing to make snide remarks at the Rajapaksa administration, though a close friend of his, and of Rajapaksa excused the Heritage Minister's outbursts saying it was understandable in the circumstances, and that "we all know he is a soda bottle - ultimately, the important thing is that he votes with us".

There is some pressure on Mangala Samaraweera on this matter, because he thought he could get at least 17 SLFP MPs to cross-over to the Opposition. It seems his calculations have gone haywire, and there are reports that former President Chandrika Kumaratunga is due back next week to beef up the out-of-steam efforts of Samaraweera.

The breakaway UNP MP Mahinda Wijesekera's recent remark calling for a National Government and a comment attributed to him (which he later tried to deny) inviting his erstwhile leader Ranil Wickremesinghe to become the Prime Minister under Rajapaksa's Presidency have also caused consternation within the Government's ranks.

Rajapaksa himself was in Iran when this call became public, and he had to make a second call to Jeyeraj Fernandopulle rectifying something one of his Minister's had done, by asking Fernandopulle to issue a public rebuttal about the formation of any National Government.

Meanwhile, the UNP-TNA-JVP Opposition is working in tandem to some extent now on the configuration of the parliamentary majority of the Government, and keeping the LTTE issue at arms length. The JVP and the TNA clashed over the civilian bombings issue this week, but otherwise seem to have a common objective.

One of the plans is to defeat the votes of the Ministry of Tourism. The JVP has indicated a willingness to work towards this task with the UNP targeting Minister Milinda Moragoda who is astutely avoiding a Vote of No-confidence that has been already tabled in Parliament.

The bid to do the same during the votes of the Ministry of Trade, Marketing Development, Co-operatives and Consumer Affairs however did not succeed because somehow the Opposition was unable to muster the numbers and there was no strong show of strength.

In so far as the Tourism Ministry votes on Dec. 11 are concerned, the UNP-SLFP (M) combine with the tacit backing of the JVP is hopeful of getting Thondaman and the CWC also to vote with them, in what would be a test-run before the finals on Dec. 14.

The inside story of Kampala chaos