Dead-letter buried: Where do we go from here?

• Cabinet unanimoulsy endorses abrogation of CFA, year of intense war begins
• International community expresses grave concern over repercussions
• War realities go under-reported: Media still face severe threat

By Iqbal Athas

FLASHBACK: Just a month after the signing of the Ceasefire Agreement in February 2002, LTTE ideologue the late Anton Balasingham flew into Wanni in a sea plane from Maldives for a meeting with guerrilla leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran. Also in the picture with Mr. Prabhakaran is Political Wing leader, S.P. Tamilselvan, who died last year in an aerial attack by the Air Force. The sea plane in the in the Iranamadu irrigation tank in Kilinochchi.

At last Wednesday's cabinet meeting chaired by President Mahinda Rajapaksa, ministers had cleared all items on the agenda for that day. Before the meeting ended, the last was the customary "any other business."

It was then that Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake proposed that the Ceasefire Agreement of February 2002 be abrogated. Not one Minister present expressed any objection. It was approved unanimously with no lengthy discussion.

The decision came amidst both political and military leaders making declarations in the past weeks that the war to crush the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) would be intensified this year. Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, who is singularly directing the military machine against Tiger guerrillas, advocated the abrogation of the CFA and a ban on the LTTE.

Just three days before the cabinet meeting, Mr. Rajapaksa told the state run Daily News in an interview (on December 29, 2007) that the CFA should be abrogated and the LTTE banned. He said the agreement existed only on paper and was a joke. He also declared that military victories would lead to a political solution. A day later (December 31, 2007) the Commanders of the Army (Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka), Navy (Vice Admiral Wasantha Karannagoda) and Air Force (Air Marshal Roshan Gunatilleke) expressed confidence the guerrillas would be “extinct in 2008”. Their forecast was the front-page lead story in the Daily News (December 31).

The task of giving effect to the cabinet decision fell on Foreign Minister Rohita Bogollagama. He first conveyed it to India's High Commissioner in Sri Lanka Alok Prasad. To the Government in New Delhi, which was awaiting the political proposals to end the ethnic conflict, the official news came as surprise. The meeting also saw High Commissioner Prasad telling Mr. Bogollagama that Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh would not be visiting Colombo for the 60th anniversary Independence Day celebrations. The Government had extended an invitation but Premier Singh's acceptance had been prematurely announced in Colombo. This is even before an official response from India, diplomatic sources said. The Indian Premier's presence, these sources said, could be misconstrued as India's endorsement of the Government's new move to embark on a military campaign to crush the guerrillas. India has insisted that there is no military solution to the ethnic conflict.

Bogollagama then met Norway's Ambassador to Sri Lanka, Tore Hatrem, to hand over a document. It gave notice of the termination of the CFA in terms of article 1.4. This article states: "This Agreement shall remain in force until notice of termination is given by either Party to the RNG (Royal Norwegian Government). Such notice shall be given fourteen (14) days in advance of the effective date of termination." Accordingly, the CFA will cease to exist from midnight January 16.

A consequence of this would be the expiry of the Status of Mission Agreement (SOMA). This agreement between the Governments of Sri Lanka and Norway related to the working of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) "to monitor the implementation of the CFA." The SOMA conferred immunity on SLMM members, made their premises inviolable, gave them tax concessions for import of supplies and equipment for their work. This agreement is also due to lapse on January 16.

That would have meant that the SLMM monitors will be required to conclude all their activities in Sri Lanka before January 16. It includes disposing their assets, retrenching local staff, handing over rented buildings and a multitude of other tasks. However, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has told Norway that the monitors could take a "reasonable amount of time" beyond the deadline to conclude their operations. That period is to be treated as one where provisions of SOMA still applied, a move, which means there will be no punitive action if they do not keep to the deadline.

Bogollagama thereafter met envoys of the Donor Co-chairs - the United States, Japan, Norway and member countries of the European Union. The Co-chairs have declared in previous statements that there is no military solution to the ethnic conflict. They expressed the view that the Government should pursue a political solution. Responding to the abrogation of the CFA, the United States re-iterated this position again on Friday.

What will be the future of the Donor Co-chairs entity? Will it cease or continue to function? The matter will come up for discussion when senior officials and envoys have a conference call on January 9.

In Washington State Department spokesman Sean McCormack declared that the US is "troubled by the Sri Lankan Government's decision…." Ending the Ceasefire Agreement, he said, will make it more difficult to achieve a lasting, peaceful solution to Sri Lanka's ethnic conflict. "Only a peaceful political solution, not a military one, offers a way out of the current cycle of escalating violence," he said. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon was quoted as saying he is "deeply worried that the withdrawal from the agreement comes amidst intensifying fighting…"

India's External Affairs Ministry said in a statement in New Delhi on Friday, "we strongly believe there is no military solution" to the ethnic conflict. The statement, which carefully avoided any reference to the abrogation of the CFA, said, "For India, any step that leads to a reduction in levels of violence and human suffering in Sri Lanka is welcome."

However, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherji was more eloquent. He told Press Trust of India (PTI) "We had to pay a very heavy price for developments in Sri Lanka. An important leader of this country has been victim of terrorism and it has been clearly established who was behind it.” Pointing out that India has zero tolerance for terrorism, he said that "legitimate aspirations" of the Tamil community should be met. These aspirations, he said, should be met within the “territorial integrity and framework of the Sri Lankan Constitution.”

The first Norwegian response came from Erik Solheim, Minister of Environment and International Development. "I regret the Government is taking this serious step," he said. The statement noted: "In 2000, Norway was formally invited by Sri Lanka's President, Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, and the LTTE to act as facilitator for the peace process in the country. The invitation was renewed most recently by President Rajapaksa in January 2006. Despite the escalation of hostilities, Norway is maintaining a close dialogue with the parties. Since bringing the parties together in Geneva in October 2006, Norway has informed them that no further initiatives will be taken until requested by the parties."

Mr. Bogollagama told Ambassador Hatrem that although the CFA was being abrogated, Norway's invitation in January 2000 to act as facilitator remains. They will thus continue to be the conduit for any contact, if and when it becomes necessary, with the LTTE. The Sunday Times learns Norway has already conveyed the Government’s decision to abrogate the CFA to the LTTE. However, there has been no formal response from the guerrillas so far.

Norwegian Foreign Minister, Jonas Gahr Store joined his counterparts in Iceland, Denmark, Sweden and Finland (countries from which SLMM monitors came) to issue a joint statement. See box story on this page.

There was no formal official statement from the Government setting out the reasons why the CFA was abrogated. The only explanation came in the form of remarks by Mr. Bogollagama. He told a news conference on Friday that the CFA was seriously flawed. "The LTTE continued to take advantage seeking to dominate areas such as Sampur, continue to smuggle in large haul of lethal arms, explosives and ammunition," he pointed out. "The termination of the Ceasefire Agreement does not in any way hamper the process of moving towards a negotiated political settlement" he said. “In fact it gives broader space to pursue this goal through an inclusive process which includes all minority groups in Sri Lanka" he added.

A fuller, independent appreciation of the pros and cons of the abrogation of the CFA and its repercussions is difficult in the light of serious constraints - ones I have never before faced in my 43-year journalistic career. Such an appreciation in the national interest would have been useful to The Sunday Times readers. It would not only educate them but also enlighten them to make decisions on their own. It would have also given the opportunity for those, who do not agree, to say why. If I was wrong in any way, those concerned could have pointed them out. Today, any comments that are not to the liking of some bureaucrats or those in uniform not only invite the sobriquet "traitor" but leads to other threats and intimidation. They do not want what is disliked by them to be reported. For obvious reasons I cannot detail out some of the insidious and disturbing aspects except to say an intelligence unit of a service arm is very active in this regard.

Yet, one could comment on some of the known facts. In the recent weeks and months there have been statements from officials and military leaders that the Tiger guerrillas have been badly weakened. Almost the entirety of the Eastern province has now been brought under Government control. There are only sporadic incidents there, that again by small groups. At least ten ships of the Sea Tigers had been destroyed debilitating the guerrilla capability to smuggle in military hardware. According to some officials, LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran is either “seriously injured” or even “dead”.

Thus, a weakened LTTE has now been confined only to the Wanni. It is from here that the troops are poised to crush the guerrillas militarily. Repeated air raids have led to heavy guerrilla losses. Casualty counts of guerrilla losses, according to official documents I have seen, place the death toll from early March until December 2007 at over 2,100 killed. According to it, a further 1,300 were injured.

Last year, a high ranking military official told a newly launched Sunday newspaper in an interview that the strength of the LTTE was 3,500. If that assertion is correct, only 1400 now remained. If the number injured is 1,300, that is 100 more than the figure given in the confidential document. One intelligence estimate places the guerrilla strength at 7,500. Even in terms of this, 3,400 are dead and injured leaving only a balance of 4,100. In pointing this out, I must make it unequivocally clear, it is not in any way intended to challenge the heroic role played by those in the Security Forces and the Police.

It is solely to highlight the difficulties encountered by the media in keeping the Sri Lankan public informed as truthfully as possible. The separatist war is being waged on their behalf and on their contributions. Eelam Wars I, II and III have mostly been under a state of emergency and long periods of censorship. The media has been debarred from visiting the theatres of conflict except on conducted tours. It is a well known fact that both sides to the conflict provide highly exaggerated casualty counts. Independent verification of these claims has become difficult. Though the undeclared Eelam War IV was without a censorship, pressures and threats on the media have been much worse. Now that a declared Eelam War IV will be in place after January 16, there is no doubt conditions will become even difficult.

If indeed the guerrillas have been badly weakened, their capacity to re-supply debilitated and their leader rendered inactive as he is "seriously injured" or "dead," it would have been in the Government's interest to have told Sri Lankans the exact reasons why the CFA was being abrogated. The fact that the CFA was seriously flawed was known soon after it was made public in February 2002. Even Mahinda Rajapaksa acknowledged the need for changes, when he contested the presidential elections in November 2005. This is why he made an election pledge to take measures to amend the CFA. However, with just over a year in office, he invited Norway to resume the peace process.

Since the CFA was signed in February 2002, there have been eight rounds of peace talks between the Government and the LTTE. Two of them were with delegations from the Rajapaksa administration. Here is the chronology:
September 16 to 18 2002 - Thai Naval Base in Sattahip, Chonburi.
October 31 to November 3 2002 - Rose Garden Hotel, Nakhorn Pathom, Thailand.
December 2 to 5, 2002 - Radisson SAS Plaza Hotel, Oslo, Norway.
January 6 to 9, 2003 - Rose Garden Hotel, Nakhorn Pathom, Thailand.
February 7 to 8, 2003 - Norwegian Embassy, Nordic Embassy Complex, Berlin, Germany.
March 18 - 21 2003 - Hakone Prince Hotel, Hakone, Japan.
February 22 - 23, 2006 - Chattaeu de Bossy, Geneva, Switzerland.
October 28 - 29 - 2006 - at Varembe Conference Centre Geneva, Switzerland

On June 8, 2006, both Sri Lankan and LTTE delegations were scheduled to meet in Oslo, Norway. After arriving there, however, the LTTE delegation refused to meet up with their Sri Lankan counterparts since their team was was not led by a cabinet minister.
Seeking answers to questions on why the CFA had to be abrogated now is neither to praise its virtues nor to applaud its demise. The sequence of events that led to it have shown that the decision has been made by less than a handful, unanimously endorsed by a silent cabinet and implemented. The Government has defied its friends and acquaintances in the international community who have all declared that a military solution is not the answer.

The Sunday Times has learnt that with the CFA ceasing to be in force after January 16, the Government is giving active consideration to ban the LTTE. Some of the measures under consideration, if enforced, will no doubt cause more concern. Those are provisions to deal with those having any connection or links to the LTTE or helping them in any way. There may also be restrictions on the media on reportage of some aspects.

Thus, the Year of the War begins in earnest. In the next 12 months, the LTTE will have to be weakened militarily to such a point that they could be forced to the negotiation table. That has been the aim of successive governments in the past. Then, corruption in military procurements, politicisation of military activity and mismanagement were among the major contributory factors that prevented the objectives from being achieved.

Quite clearly, the Government has dropped the peace option, a public commitment, with the abrogation of the CFA. Its preamble said,: "The overall objective of the Government of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam is to find a negotiated settlement to the ongoing ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka." It also recognised "the importance of bringing an end to hostilities and improving the living conditions for all inhabitants affected by the conflict. Bringing an end to the hostilities is also seen by the Parties as a means of establishing a positive atmosphere in which further steps towards a lasting solution can be taken."

Now, the Mahinda Rajapaksa administration has an unenviable task in its hands. Defeat the LTTE militarily and prove to the whole world, their detractors wrong by demonstrating that a military victory is possible. That is what the Tiger guerrillas will try to deny him in 2008. Despite all the lop-sided propaganda, it is no secret that the guerrillas still are a potent threat. That is why Sri Lankans, particularly those who are not privileged to have personal protection and political pampering, will have to be more vigilant.