Situation Report

The truth, they say, is the first casualty of war. In more than two decades of the separatist war in Sri Lanka, this axiom has been proved right many a time. If one were to add up the casualty figures put out by Government officials since inception, it would have wiped out the population of Jaffna twice over. There would be no one left. On the other hand, if all the casualty figures for the Security Forces, given by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) are added up, a sizeable segment of the Security Forces would have been wiped out. That is not true either.

However, in the dissemination of information on the Government side, there has been a rapid transformation. At first the military fought the war and the Department of Information disseminated the information to the media, both local and foreign. At one time, under former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, the Department of Information undertook this role jointly with the military. Yet, Information Department officials remained the main link with the media.

However, today the task is being handled almost entirely by the military that is also fighting the war. This is amidst cries by powerful sections of the officialdom to clamp down a censorship. That, no doubt, would prevent reportage of facts or comment considered unfavourable to the Government, the defence and the security establishments. There have been no major changes in the LTTE approach barring greater sophistication. The only exception is that they have fine-tuned their overseas propaganda operations over the years. It has even been made a tool for fund raising.

CDs and booklets with colour photos of battles in the North are being sold in some world capitals. Satellite TV channels that report on incidents use video footage from the battlefield made available by the guerrillas. There are Sri Lanka diplomatic missions in the same capitals but successive governments have failed to match or counter that propaganda.

Last Tuesday, none other than President Mahinda Rajapaksa, acknowledged that the guerrillas were ahead in their propaganda activities abroad. They were only carrying out a campaign of misinformation, he said, pointing out that some of the foreign media "fell for their lies.” Amal Jayasinghe, Agence France Presse (AFP) Bureau Chief in Colombo and BBC's Correspondent Roland Buerke raised issue about media visits to the theatres of conflict. That, no doubt, was to report first hand what they see and hear. That would give Sri Lankans and the world outside a fuller picture instead of only the military’s or the government’s view. If there were errors or deliberate distortions, the Government could thus correct them or punish those concerned through the due process of the law. This is instead of simply branding all of them as LTTE sympathisers or traitors.

At present the media have to depend largely on the reportage of the Media Centre for National Security (MCNS). This is how media that generate their own reports, often not in line with those put out by the MCNS, earn the ire of some officials both in and out of uniform. This is why the same officials want severe restrictions placed on the media although they claim that the people no longer believe the private media, particularly two Sunday English newspapers. The President undertook to go into the matter but noted that sometimes reports filed after such visits by the media had helped the guerrillas. At present both local and foreign media are not allowed into battle areas except on arranged visits.

It is in this backdrop that a propaganda war erupted this week. This was over reports that the LTTE leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran, had been killed after an air raid on a guerrilla base in the Wanni jungles on Wednesday morning. He was once reported killed after the devastating tsunami in 2004. Last December, there were reports that he was injured (in November) in a bombing raid. Reports later claimed that he had succumbed to his injuries. Other reports even spoke of his trying to travel clandestinely to either India or Dubai for treatment. In one instance, an intelligence officer in a Sri Lanka diplomatic mission in Asia was told to keep checks on hospitals in that capital. That was to ascertain whether the LTTE leader would be admitted for treatment.

However, this week's report, given credence locally by some state media outlets making veiled references, generated more interest and even more euphoria. Crackers were lit in some parts of the country. Kiribath was served in some houses. Middle level officers in the Security Forces gathered at some of the City's bars and restaurants to have a drink and heave a sigh of relief that the man behind a terror campaign was no more.

Sri Lankans abroad kept calling friends and relatives. Theories and accounts about how it happened were aplenty. One account, spoken in official quarters, said three doctors had come across the Palk Straits from India to treat Mr. Prabhakaran at a medical facility located in the "X Ray base" at Ambalahamam in the jungles east of the Iranamadu irrigation tank. Last month's reports of his injury gained credence and was reported by some foreign media. Most coverage was in India with television giving greater prominence. This time, however, there was hardly any mention.

In Colombo reports circulated that shops in Kilinochchi town had closed. There were also reports that the Tiger guerrillas had shut down all communication links and banned the use of satellite telephones. All these were to lead to media frenzy. Though some were sceptical, they still wanted the reports checked. After all, the LTTE Political Wing leader S.P. Thamilselvan, was killed during an air raid in Kilinochchi. Hence, they believed there could be a possibility. Enhancing suspicions were claims that the pro-LTTE website Tamilnet had not been updated the whole of Wednesday. It suggested that they were too busy with the incident involving the LTTE leader. Though no stories had been posted from the previous afternoon, by Wednesday afternoon stories had in fact been updated.

By Wednesday evening, reports circulating both in Sri Lanka and abroad were too much for the LTTE to remain silent. Their military spokesman Rasiah Ilantheriyan declared that reports of Air Force hitting a location where Mr. Prabhakaran was present was "false propaganda." He claimed that the Air Force had targeted civilian settlements in Vaddakkachchi twice between 11.10 a.m. and 11.35 a.m. and in the evening between 5.15 and 6.00.

On Thursday, the Peace Secretariat of the LTTE put out a press release that told a different story. It contradicted Mr. Ilantheriyen's claim that civilian settlements were bombed. This is what that press release said:

"In three separate sorties spread over 20 hours, Sri Lankan Air Force carried out extensive bombing over Ambalahamam forest area in Kilinochchi destroying vast extent of forests. "At 11.30 a.m. and 5.20 p.m. on Wednesday and again at 6.45 a.m. on Thursday Sri Lankan Air Force dropped more than 16 bombs over the Ambalahamam forest area damaging around ten hectares of forest land.

"The Forest Protection Division of the LTTE has undertaken extensive forest replanting in recent times. These young plants as well as many old forest plants were destroyed in this mindless bombing of the Sri Lankan military.

"Speculation is strife ( Note: this is a reference to the word "rife") among Kilinochchi residents about the rationale behind the bombing of the forest areas which only results in the destruction of the environment."

On both Wednesday and Thursday, some senior members of the LTTE stuck to their Peace Secretariat version. They maintained in conversations with Colombo-based Tamil media that the attacks were on a jungle patch. Thus, there were no curbs placed on communications. Former LTTE "Police Chief" and now head of their Peace Secretariat P.Nadesan told one of them "they have only bombed a jungle killing wild animals. We will have to check how many deer have died." S. Prabagaran (Pulithevan), "Secretary General" of the same Secretariat claimed that reports of a base being hit were only Government propaganda. "No such thing happened," he declared.

There was panic in Kilinochchi town last Wednesday morning and shops did close. Some schools were also forced to close. The reason, however, was different. That early morning six Air Force bombers had taken to the air from their base in Katunayake. Three MiG-27 ground attack aircraft were armed with (ST4B) rocket bombs. Kfir multi role combat aircraft were loaded with a 1,000 kilogramme bomb under its fuselage and two 250 kg bombs in the wings. The pilots were brave enough to fly low despite the threat of anti aircraft gunfire from the guerrillas.

They carried out attacks on the "X-ray Base" after confirmed intelligence reports said the area was a secluded one. It was located within the LTTE's so-called high security zone that encompassed their airstrip northeast of the Iranamadu irrigation tank. Only selected guerrilla cadres had been allowed access to this base. Intelligence reports had spoken of Mr. Prabhakaran visiting that base, where a medical centre existed, to obtain treatment whenever required.

The Sunday Times has learnt from Air Force sources that the bombing was accurate and the base was completely destroyed. "The pilots were bold to take a risk to swoop low to drop the lethal bombs," a high ranking source said. Subsequent aerial surveillance of the area, the source said, had shown extensive damage. Independent confirmation of the reports came from intelligence channels.

These reports confirmed that Mr. Prabhakaran was nowhere near the vicinity of the "X-ray Base" when the raids were conducted. However, among 15 guerrillas killed were four senior leaders but their identities are not known. Intelligence officials say the guerrillas were maintaining radio silence with no references being made to the raid on the base or on the resultant developments. Adding to the mystery is said to be the road block the guerrillas had placed at the 155th mile post on the Vavuniya - Jaffna (A-9) highway. A turn to the right at a junction here is said to be the land route that leads to an area closest to the destroyed base. Reports have said that both civilians and even guerrilla cadres were being forbidden from travelling along that road.

Since Wednesday's bombing by a larger fleet of Air Force bombers, air raids on rebel positions have continued daily. Military officials say the move would add more pressure on the guerrillas as troops are engaging them on three different fronts in the Wanni - in the general area north of Mannar, along the coast north of the Weli Oya sector and south of the defended localities at Muhamalai, the gateway to Government-held Jaffna peninsula.

Troops continued their advance north of Mannar. Army officials believe they would soon encompass the Madhu Church area. An advancing column, east of the church, is reported to be within three and half kilometres. "It is a matter of time before we link up," a senior Army officer in Mannar said. Direct confrontations are rare but troops had to encounter a large volume of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and shrapnel from mortar fire, he said.

As reported earlier, some of the guerrilla strength has been withdrawn to fortify the Sea Tiger base that lay further north of Mannar at Vidutaltivu. Further importance of this base, it has come to light, is the evacuation of selected casualties across the Gulf of Mannar to Tamil Nadu. In the light of this, intelligence sources say, the guerrillas are intent on defending this coastal base. The military campaign to take control of the Madhu church area began in July, last year. This week has seen some pitched battles near Adampan.

Troops engaged guerrilla defensive positions across their defended localities at Nager Kovil. It is located near the coast on the eastern edge of the defence lines at Muhamalai. There has been heavy fighting in the area with guerrillas offering fierce resistance. In the thrust north of the Weli Oya sector, more troops have joined in. They were moving northwards. On Friday, two soldiers were reported missing in action. Earlier, three were reported missing and troops recovered the bodies of two.

Further details of the three-pronged thrust in the Wanni, including casualties, as I have repeatedly pointed out in the past weeks, are difficult. This is due to serious constraints.

In the wake of the thrust into the Wanni, the defence and security establishments are enhancing security measures in areas considered vulnerable. Priority consideration is being given to the Deep South as well as the City of Colombo. This is in the wake of warnings of further attacks.

In the aftermath of the incidents near Buttala that left 42 civilians killed in just two days, there were more. Last Tuesday, the guerrillas shot dead a Sub Inspector and two police officers at a police post at Kitulkotte, Alimankada. It is located on the road between Tanamalwila and Kuda Oya in the Moneragala district. Police believe the trio were killed when the guerrillas sniped at them. There has been no close quarter gunfire.

The next day (Wednesday) a combined Army commandos and Police team conducted a search in the jungle some two kilometres away from the Police post. Police dog Brown Raja had picked up the scent from the fallen cap of a fleeing guerrilla. It lay on the ground. When the search party followed the dog, they encountered gunfire injuring two Army commandos. Some four hours later the search operation was called off.

The guerrilla firing forced Brown Raja to flee the area. Handlers were pleased when the sniffer dog returned three hours later. In the village of Ambanwela in Tanamalwila some 4,000 Police, Army, Home Guards and Grama Arakshakas were conducting a search for the guerrilla group. Joining them were 400 civilians who have been issued shot guns so far. More are to be given. Police said attendance in schools in the area had dropped. In some areas the villagers were spending the nights in groups at temples. Others were not visiting their Chenas to cultivate for fear of guerrilla attacks.

President Rajapaksa early this week visited the homes of the bereaved families of the massacre that left 27 killed near Okkampitiya. He had wanted to attend funerals in the area but was compelled to call it off following advice from his security staff. Some of the villagers asked President Rajapaksa when "the war" would end - a query that underscored the serious concerns caused by the recent attacks.

In the City of Colombo, additional police strength has been deployed to ensure security. More are joining in to ensure nothing untoward happens during the 60th Independence Day celebrations on February 4. At a time when the Government has embarked on enforcing the 13th Amendment to the Constitution, as a political solution to the ethnic conflict, the fighting both in the North, the East and now the South assumes greater significance.

In the North, the offensives in the form of military thrusts into the guerrilla dominated Wanni. are to weaken the guerrillas militarily. It is much the same as in the East where they were ousted to regain control. Thus, claims that the ongoing military offensives are not to gain territory is misleading and illogical. The troops are advancing into territory in the Wanni dominated by the guerrillas. Though they are meeting resistance, their aim is to overcome it and move further.

When they do this, they will end up re-capturing territory. It is their attacks that seek to militarily weaken the guerrillas. Both are equally important to the military. These two factors will have to be accomplished if, as the Government claims, they would end "terrorism" before the end of this year. Now that local polls are to be held in the East in March, signs that the guerrillas will want to disrupt it are emerging. An SLFP-TMVP candidate, Sangaradas Sivadas, was kidnapped on Friday night by suspected Tiger guerrillas.

In the South, the guerrillas triggered off violence to set off panic and to force the Security Forces and the Police to thin out. Thus, other areas including the City of Colombo become vulnerable as the pressure mounts on the guerrillas. The more the public are kept informed about the true situation, the better would be their understanding and the co-operation they would extend.

Pressure mounts on LTTE: Tell the truth now