Columns

• SLPP splinters; Chamal’s tough talk silences Basil group now reduced to less than 25
• IMF Extended Facility not likely this year; India seeks clarification over data, while China and Japan not saying much

The gathering at Ekata Nagitamu of the SLPP at Arachchikatuwa.

By Our Political Editor

Diwali, the festival of lights widely observed by Hindus the world over, turned out to be an unexpected tribute to Anthonipillai Emmanuel Manoharan, the Sri Lankan pop singer and composer of the Baila hit Suranganita Maalu Genaava.

Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, flew to what is one of the world’s elevated battlegrounds to celebrate the religious festival with Indian troops (Jawans). He dipped into a small plastic box and fed sweets into their mouths with his own hands.  All others sang in chorus the favourite number of the late 1970s in Sinhala. The pronunciation of some words sounded different but the large gathering in uniform, under a camouflaged tent, was unmistakable.

Premier Modi wore a thick jerkin, like the military officers with him, to overcome the cold. He donned a military hat and a pair of pants. The Indian Air Force C-130 Hercules aircraft that flew him lay parked a little distance away. The venue was Kargil at an altitude of 8,000 feet. It is near the Line of Control that demarcates the India and Pakistan administered portions of Kashmir. It has often been the site of skirmishes. The worst of these was the Kargil war in May-June 1999.

Manoharan’s song came to be widely acclaimed after he introduced Tamil words to the song in a mix with Sinhala. It took Tamil Nadu by storm. It said Suranganeeta Meenu Konduvanden or brought fish for Surangani. It was a few years after Radio Ceylon was renamed as Sri Lanka Broadcasting Coporation (SLBC) and broadcasts of the song from Colombo were much sought after. So much so, other versions of the song emerged. One is a Goan konkeni version and another was a main song from the film Avar Enakke Sontham or he is entirely owned by me starring Shivaji Ganeshan. There is a downside to all this.

In the years past, successive Sri Lanka governments possessed an important tool in the form of Radio Ceylon  which had an outreach to most parts of Tamil Nadu. It was not only the music which was broadcast. The messages that emanated, including news bulletins, were credible and contributed to opinion making in the southern Indian state. Alas, this was not put to positive use to build goodwill and greater rapport. Over a period, separatist ideals took root and the population there turned the most hostile to Sri Lanka.

Decades later came the worst-ever economic crisis. India became the country to extend the largest volume of financial support. The government in Tamil Nadu chipped in by sending convoys with food and other essentials. The government is now engaged in the tedious process of debt restructuring so it could be the early recipient of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Extended Fund Facility of US$ 2.9 billion under a 48-month arrangement. There are strong indications that Sri Lanka will not be able to avail itself of the funds this year. The earliest prospects, diplomatic sources said yesterday, would be March next year. Here again, it would be dependent on conclusive discussions with debtors, a prospect that remains distant. Fears are mounting that it could go beyond this time frame despite redoubled efforts.

Indian Premier Narendra Modi in Kargil

Debt restructuring

According to the same sources, talks with India for example, are mired in an issue concerning different data. New Delhi is learnt to have pointed out that material made available so far has given rise to several questions. Hence, India has sought clarification. This position has been pointed out to Senior Presidential Advisor, Sagala Ratnayake, when he was in New Delhi last week to discuss matters related to debt restructuring. A source familiar with the goings on said the further there are delays, the more it would hurt efforts to reverse the deteriorating trend in the economy. A diplomatic source explained the latest position with India: “Bi-lateral talks were held with the Sri Lanka Government on September 16 and October 25 in Colombo. The main reason is the question of data that applies to India. “We want to better understand Sri Lanka’s approach. Of course, certain things are confidential. The information is mainly to help India make specific decisions.”

“Another crucial discussion of Sri Lanka’s creditors,” the President’s Office said on Friday “is scheduled to be held on November 3.”  A statement added: “Debt restructuring in Sri Lanka is on the agenda to be discussed at length during this discussion. Chief of Staff and Senior Advisor to the President on National Security Mr Sagala Ratnayake met with the outgoing IMF Resident Representative for Sri Lanka  Tubagus Feridhanusetyawan and the incoming IMF Resident Representative for Sri Lanka Ms Sarwat Jahan at the Presidential Secretariat yesterday (27). The three-member IMF team met with Mr Sagala Ratnayake and exchanged views on prior action and debt restructuring.  Mr Ratnayake assured the IMF team that he would brief President Ranil Wickremesinghe on the matters that were discussed at this meeting and convey his response to them.”

Formal talks with China are yet to begin in view of the just concluded Communist Party sessions in Beijing. Finance Minister, Liu Kun, who was the last Chinese dignitary to speak with President Ranil Wickremesinghe, has since been removed from office. The President revealed his conversation at a public meeting in Siyambalanduwa but did not disclose details. According to a diplomatic source, China had offered another loan to repay what is due instead of re-scheduling the debt. Government officials, however, did not confirm this. There is still uncertainty over when the dialogue proper with China would begin. A report from Bloomberg on October 22 gives an idea of the situation:

“China’s Communist Party congress signalled a possible shake-up of the nation’s economic policy team at a time of heightened concern about the world’s second-largest economy.

“Premier Li Keqiang, 67, economic czar Liu He, 70, central bank governor Yi Gang, 64, Finance Minister Liu Kun, 65, and banking regulator Guo Shuqing, 66, were dropped off a list of full or alternate members of the Central Committee — the country’s most senior officials and political elites — according to official releases published Saturday at the end of the party’s congress.

“While that suggests they may retire, being left off the lists doesn’t automatically mean the officials will leave their government posts. Those positions may only become clearer in March 2023, when the national legislature meets.

“The possible changes to the policy team come amid heightened uncertainty about China’s growth outlook as Covid lockdowns and the worst housing market downturn on record batter the economy. Gross domestic product growth is forecast to slow to just 3.3% this year, which would be the weakest pace in more than four decades barring 2020’s Covid slump.”

There have also been no formal talks with Japan so far over debt restructuring. The only exception has been soundings made to Japanese officials on the side lines of the IMF Governors meeting in Washington DC in May. Here again, diplomatic sources said soundings were made from Japanese officials over matters related to restructuring.

Other than the restructuring of debt, the IMF has already handed down a list of measures to resuscitate the economy. This is by means of introducing a budget that would generate income. President Wickremesinghe, who is Finance Minister, will introduce a budget next month for this purpose. Another is the introduction of the Inland Revenue (Amendment) Bill to raise taxes.

Basil group’s strength diminishing

Other than the economic shocks that are still in store and remain less known at least for the moment by Sri Lankans, the aftershocks of the passage of the 22nd amendment to the constitution continue to reverberate. It laid bare the internecine issues within the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and a formidable faction under its ideologue and strategist, Basil Rajapaksa, shrinking in size and losing its power base. It has been the talking point since it emerged that the group was now less than 25 and whether it would disintegrate further. A few among them are even proposing that they join opposition ranks. This is on the grounds that Basil Rajapaksa’s pleas to the government in the recent past had not been heeded. One such case, they point out, was the appointment of ten of his nominees as cabinet ministers. Paradoxical enough, there is one factor that is binding all of them together though they want to go in different ways. They do not want an election.

Yet, there are groups that are preparing for an election. “We are strengthening our district level organisations and appointing party organisers or prospective candidates,” Wimal Weerawansa, leader of the Uttara Lanka Sabhawa, said yesterday. He said, “The way this government is handling matters, there is no option for it but to hold an election.”

More details of the aftermath of the voting on 22A have remained unreported. They give one a better idea of the depth to which the crisis within the SLPP has developed and raise the question of whether the SLPP has an overall majority in Parliament. Though it should have been termed 21A, the amendment has been titled 22A because the main opposition Samagi Jana Balavegaya had used that title for an amendment it moved. Originally, 22A was to have been debated on October 6 and a vote taken on October 7. Explaining the formal reason it did not happen was Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena. He told Parliament on October 6:

“There is a background and history for the 22nd amendment. The 22nd amendment was presented to Parliament by the government after discussions lasting months. Honestly, the first proposals were discussed in the first half of this year. The Minister of Constitutional affairs, even though he was not in that position at that time, presented proposals.

“The President at the time, held a Parliamentary session in the third week of March. Proposals from all parties were considered regarding constitutional reforms. Even Private Members’ bills were presented, and the Supreme Court gave its ruling, which was made known to Parliament and the country.

“The Minister has explained the 22nd amendment which has been presented to Parliament. The former President held discussions with the Cabinet of Ministers and parties to create this 22nd amendment. President Ranil Wickremesinghe also, as the Prime Minister then, summoned some parties to the Prime Minister’s office and discussed it. Prof G. L Peiris as the Chairman of the SLPP and myself as the then Chief Government Whip participated in it. Discussions were held with representatives from other parties and several rounds of talks were held.  Even independent MPs participated in the discussions. That’s how we reached at this agreement.

“After Premier Wickremesinghe was elected as President it was discussed with the Cabinet and the draft was prepared and published in the Gazette. In short, even the opposition requested to expedite the process. Thereafter the Bill was challenged in Parliament and after the Supreme Court gave its ruling it was conveyed to Parliament. That’s how we reached agreement on this debate.

Yesterday discussions were held with the Opposition Leader, along with the Chief opposition Whip, Mr Rauf Hakeem, and Mano Ganeshan. Thereafter there was consensus to support the 22nd Amendment subject to confirmation later in the day.

“Thereafter I met with members of the Uttara Sabha. Even that meeting ended in a positive note with a request that if there were any changes it should be conveyed in advance. Vasudeva Nanayakkara represented the parties at the meeting.

“However, we were waiting for the confirmation later in the day. The Opposition Chef Whip (Lakshman) Kiriella conveyed to me that following consultations with other opposition parties that it was difficult to extend the support to the Amendments. We regret that and even at that time I said it is better we collectively agree on it. Therefore, there was a difference between the morning meeting and the position taken in the evening. I conveyed this to the President, to the government party and the House.

“Therefore, we are ready to take up the statement of the President about the economic situation and its results. We appeal to the parties to collectively reach an agreement. Also, if the opposition conveys to the House whether it has changed its position last evening we can take a decision. It is good if this can be made a success and if the Speaker intervenes and calls for a discussion on the matter.”

The constitutional amendment was passed with 174 voting in favour at the final count and only one against. It was in the morning of October 6, a government source said, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa told interlocutors that his party would not support the bill. In that situation, a vote on October 7 would have meant a defeat of the amendment in Parliament and led to the surfacing of diverse divisions.  Even in this situation, interlocutors held talks with Basil Rajapaksa loyalists to obtain their support, but they stubbornly refused. Minister Prasanna Ranatunga told a government parliamentary group meeting that Basil Rajapaksa had informed him (on the telephone from Los Angeles) that he had no plans to enter Parliament even if a provision existed in the constitution to allow dual citizens to become MP or President. He said that loyalists had been told this categorically, but he said that the government should nevertheless retain the provision to allow dual citizens in the constitution. A few of Basil Rajapaksa loyalists began endorsing the proposal one after another. That included Sagara Kariyawasam, Pavithra Wanniaratchchi, Gamini Lokuge, Sanjiva Edirimanne, Jayantha Ketagoda and Ranjith Bandara. Other MPs, however, resisted the move and there was no decision. The group who made the move said they would not vote if their request was not heeded.

Then came the government parliamentary group meeting on the day of voting, October 21. It was held in Committee Room No 4 in Parliament and was chaired by President Ranil Wickremesinghe. At this meeting, SLPP General Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam, a protégé of Basil Rajapaksa, insisted that the provisions relating to dual citizens in the constitution should remain. There were SLPP MPs who believed that Kariyawasam was making a case for Basil Rajapaksa. Premnath Dolawatte, came out with a fierce response to Kariyawasam. “We cannot go back to our electorates already. People think we are here to only protect the rights of dual citizens. We were under attack once and should learn a lesson from what happened,” he exhorted.

It was to draw the attention of Chamal Rajapaksa, eldest among the Rajapaksa brothers and onetime cabinet minister. He charged that Kariyawasam did not know the ground situation and had come to Parliament on the national list. “As a politician who is in touch with the common man, my advice is to support the 22nd Amendment,” declared Chamal Rajapaksa. He was to then make a remark that saw stoic silence among the MPs present. He said “Basil Rajapaksa is my brother. As the eldest brother, I can look after him.” President Wickremesinghe was to remark that the group had debated enough and declared “let us support it.”

The end of the meeting saw an interesting development. Most parliamentarians returned to the chamber. Those who wanted the provisions relating to dual citizenship retained in the constitution were together outside the driveway waiting for their vehicles to arrive. They were leaving Parliament and did not wish to be present during voting time. Of the 44 who were not present during voting, the numbers in the Basil Rajapaksa group, a government source claimed, had filtered down to less than 25. Now, Udaya Gammanpila, leader of the Pivithuru Hela Urumaya, is using the Freedom of Information of Act to seek from Parliament  the names of those who did not vote on October 21. He wants to write to every one of them, once the details are obtained, asking why they were absent. That way, he wants to ascertain the exact number. However, the question is whether some of those concerned would respond.

The voting has also given rise to another issue – how many other politicians holding dual citizenship are members of the present Parliament. Besides Sri Lanka, the second country will not make available to the authorities the names of such persons because they are citizens of that country. That leaves the MPs concerned to make a voluntary disclosure which will not be forthcoming now because they will forfeit their seats. In neighboring India, the Passport Act of 1967 requires persons who obtained dual citizenship to inform the nearest Indian diplomatic mission of the acquisition of new citizenship. There is also another factor. There are some who have Green Cards from the United States — a prelude to receiving citizenship. Technically, their claims that they are not dual citizens are correct though they are potential foreign citizens.

As for the political landscape now, the scenario appears to be one that is perplexing. The main opposition Samagi Jana Balavegaya remains in limbo with little or no visibility, except occasionally, as a vibrant opposition. There are hardly any statements on important issues except one or two key members running their own personal media operations with an information overload. Issues affecting the people are seldom espoused and the party’s position on critical issues affecting the country is hardly spelt out.

The ruling SLPP has splintered but together it will not let the government fall so its members can face an election. The SLPP members know that defeat is staring them in the face. The Basil Rajapaksa faction, with less than 25 members, it is highly unlikely, will be able to rise in numbers and return as a formidable force. In this midst, SLPP leader, Mahinda Rajapaksa has already embarked on Ekata Nagtimu (Rise together), to revive the SLPP. The third in the series of meetings was held in Arachchikatuwa (Chilaw District) this week. The event, Police said, had an estimated turnout of 1,500. Organisers have dubbed it a member’s event, but former President Rajapaksa claimed confidently in a speech that the party would return to power at the next elections, too. However, the rationale behind the three meetings, it is clear, is to launch Namal Rajapaksa, in the line of succession to the leadership. Whether he would equal Uncle Basil Rajapaksa in the task remains to be seen.