Columns

• Mahinda Rajapaksa says political parties should face elections, cannot run away and must learn from their mistakes
• TNA threatens to pull out of reconciliation talks; says little or nothing has happened; more talks scheduled
• Moribund SAARC in crisis over secretary general post; Sri Lanka’s Esala Weerakoon may continue till solution is found

By Our Political Editor

Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) leader Mahinda Rajapaksa is strongly in favour of the conduct of local council elections. Yet, there is increasing uncertainty over the polls.

Twice President and twice Prime Minister of Sri Lanka, Rajapaksa told the Sunday Times, “We must learn what the people think about us. If we have made mistakes, it is only then that we can correct them. We should not ignore their feelings and carry on as if nothing has happened. We must learn from our faults. More so, since new policy matters have emerged.”

Rajapaksa was forced by his brother and ex-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign as Prime Minister on May 9, last year. He believed the move would prompt protestors at the Galle Face Green and outside Temple Trees to call off their agitation. It ended only after Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country. Mahinda Rajapaksa was reduced to being a Member of Parliament. On Thursday, Gotabaya Rajapaksa returned to Colombo from a 12-day holiday in Dubai though some sections believed in the canard that he was in the United States. He had no visa to travel there. He also did not pay Sri Lanka Rs 260,000 to avail himself of the VIP lounge at the Dubai International Airport.

At his well-secured temporary residence in Stanmore Crescent, flanked by the homes of security force top brass, Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was in a blue tracksuit relaxed in a high-neck cushion chair. A striking feature, absent during previous occupants at the colonial style bungalow like late minister Mangala Samaraweera, is the heavy security. A commando stands guard at the porch leading to the main entrance. His finger is on the trigger of an automatic weapon. Inside, plain-clothed security personnel in white shirts are all over. What makes them different from the others is the bulge at the waist with protruding automatic pistols. They cope with the visitors and their colleagues and more commandos man the gate that stands near a huge banyan tree.

Rajapaksa was in a jovial mood and did not appear to have lost his sense of humour. “You say the SLPP should contest elections. What happens if you lose badly,” I asked him. His characteristic guffaw was followed by a loud response. “We cannot run away from the people. I do not say there will be a defeat. If there is one, we must be prepared to accept it. What is most important for us is to learn where we went wrong. Those are essentials of democracy. We cannot run away. ”

The conduct of local council elections, now a statutory requirement, is being pursued by the Election Commission. However, its conduct hinges on any decision to the contrary by courts, Parliament, or other legal measures — all three that cannot be ruled out.  The last such elections were held in February 2018. For the first time, it saw the emergence of the SLPP which secured control of 341 local councils for the first time since it was formed. Thereafter, local elections were put off by then Minister of Local Government and Provincial Councils, Roshan Ranasinghe, in December 2021 citing the spread of COVID 19 as the reason. There was, however, no legal provision for a further extension and it fell on the Election Commission to prepare. This was amidst moves by sections of the government to stall it for different reasons.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe with onetime British Prime Minister David Cameron

Preparations for polls

This week, however, the Commission announced that nominations for local council elections would be accepted from January 18 till noon on January 21. On the last date of the nominations, the Commission will announce the date for the elections to 340 local councils. The only exception is Elpitiya Pradeshiya Sabha (secured earlier by the SLPP) due to a legal dispute. There are indications that it would be a date in March. The elections are due for 24 Municipal Councils, 41 Urban Councils and 275 Pradeshiya Sabhas. At the upcoming polls, 16.6 million people are eligible to vote to elect 8,711 local council members. Legal provisions require that elections should be held between five weeks to seven weeks after the closing of nominations.

The Elections Commission has already called for postal vote applications while a host of other measures are expected to follow. One of them would be a directive that all new appointments or transfers in the public sector should be stopped. Political parties have been busy conducting interviews for candidates after calling for applications. Despite the preparations, opposition political parties have been sceptical as to whether the government would go ahead with the elections. On Thursday several Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) MPs raised issue in Parliament. Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena replied that the SLPP had already paid deposits for its candidates to contest the elections from the Kalutara district. Earlier, when members of the Election Commission met Premier Gunawardena, he did not object to the conduct of the local council polls. He, however, expressed concern over the government’s inability to halve the number of elected local council members from the present figure of over 8,711. In fact, the Delimitation Commission which he appointed had recommended that it be pruned down to 5.094, according to its Chairman, Mahinda Deshapriya. A former Chairman of the Election Commission, Deshapriya said the commission’s findings would not affect the conduct of local council elections.

This notwithstanding, opinion is divided within the ruling SLPP government. Its leader now, President Ranil Wickremesinghe, is not in favour of the conduct of the elections. He is of the view that the economic issues facing the country must be resolved first. On Thursday, President Wickremesinghe met Election Commission members, including its chairman Nimal G. Punchihewa. He advised them to make a unified decision on whether polls should be held. The reference was to reported differences of opinion among the members, some in favour and others not.

A more important aspect is an identical report that appeared in most media on Thursday. It quoted President Wickremesinghe as “officially informing the United National Party that he will not participate in any campaign activity to elect members to the local government bodies.” The report added: The President while stressing that he was given a mandate not to go for an election, but to help the country recover from the abyss it has fallen into within two years. He yesterday emphasised to the UNP leaders that he would not act outside of that mandate….” Other UNP sources confirmed the report and said any diversion from President Wickremesinghe’s ongoing efforts to resuscitate the economy could be highly damaging. Until now, ex-Finance Minister and SLPP ideologue, Basil Rajapaksa, has been spearheading a campaign for the conduct of the local polls. Yet, his support base in the SLPP has shrunk considerably. Now party leader Mahinda Rajapaksa has joined in.

Earlier, President Wickremesinghe, who is the leader of the United National Party (UNP) considered a proposal to change the local council structure. He wanted to replace it with Jana Sabhas or People’s Councils. However, it did not materialise and the Election Commission went ahead with the preparations. Government leaders also denied accusations that a private member’s bill to provide for a percentage of youth representation in local councils was a ploy to delay local polls.

It is clear now that only the SLPP and not President Wickremesinghe or those in the UNP that would be at the forefront of the election campaign. Here again, there are clear signs of divisions within the SLPP with a few ministers not in favour. One such case that came to light this week was that of Agriculture Minister, Mahinda Amaraweera. His reason for not wanting the conduct of the elections is that he does not have the money to buy paddy from farmers under the Guaranteed Price Scheme. A corollary of that argument could become a formidable force to put off local elections.

That is if more ministers say they do not have the funds to procure urgently needed goods and services for the public need. Even if local polls are held, such ministers keeping away would mean a lesser number of votes for the SLPP. That is not all. Another factor that will affect the SLPP votes would be the recent increases in the prices of local liquor and cigarettes and the proposed second increase in electricity tariffs. More could follow. Those could come as a windfall for the main opposition SJB  and others. An altogether different aspect will be the test of strength breakaway groups of the SLPP would face. Their performance will be an indication not only about their political future, though at least one seems unperturbed because of the foreign funding and guidance it receives.

Mahinda Rajapaksa said, “Any party that wants to join us for the local polls is welcome. We are willing to accommodate them.” He made clear that the SLPP would be the main contender. What about a future presidential election? “We will of course field an SLPP candidate. Our party will not abandon that slot. However, the matter has not yet received our close attention since there is still time for it.”

I asked Mahinda Rajapaksa what the government proposed to do about those responsible for the deterioration of the economy and led to the bankruptcy of the country. “I told you on an earlier occasion that we all, I mean all parties, are responsible for the situation,” he replied. He added: There has been a wrong perception created in the people’s minds that I was responsible for governance whilst Gotabaya Rajapaksa remained President. This is furthest from the truth. I did not interfere with what he did. True enough, Gotabaya did not know politics. He is a military man and he exercised his own judgement. It is unfortunate there were those who let him down.” I personally don’t think he would contest another presidential election.

It is now clear that an ethnic reconciliation package, as previously announced by the government, will not materialize by February 4 when Sri Lanka marks the 75th anniversary of independence. To the contrary, threats by the TNA to pull out if its initial demands are not granted makes clear that even the preliminaries remain unresolved.

The onetime President who gave political leadership for the military defeat of Tiger guerrillas said he welcomed ethnic reconciliation. “We have paved the way for a dialogue. We must arrive at a settlement which is acceptable to all,” he said. “In fact, this evening (Thursday), I will call on Rajavarothayam Sampanthan, leader of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), the largest among Tamil political parties. Sampanthan has been ailing and had pruned down his public engagements. He is 90 years old and is the longest-serving parliamentarian in Sri Lanka. Rajapaksa said he believed that the TNA would continue its support to the government and thus strengthen the hand of President Wickremesinghe.

Four days of talks to evolve an ethnic reconciliation package will begin next week between President Wickremesinghe and leaders of political parties represented in Parliament. It comes in the backdrop of a note of caution from the TNA to pull out of the talks on the grounds that little or nothing tangible has been achieved since the dialogue began. Quite clearly, all Tamil parties have come under pressure for reasons that are yet to be spelt out at a meeting. The main among them is a call for the inclusion of foreign interlocutors at the talks – a move which is not likely to be accepted by the government. The furthest, a government source said, would be the likelihood of inviting representatives of Colombo-based diplomatic missions to be observers at the dialogue. However, the source said here again no firm decision has been made.

“You cannot eat the cake and have it,” was Rajapaksa’s answer when asked about the hardships caused to people by price increases. He said, “There was a time when we reduced taxes. Then they criticized us. Now that the taxes are going up, they are criticizing us again. So, this is a complex situation. The people should understand the situation.” What would he consider to be the most important decision in his political career so far, I asked him. He replied “Without doubt, it was to militarily defeat the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). I had to avoid pressure from various world leaders who tried to contact me. The then British Foreign Secretary David Milliband came to Colombo to meet me. I was in Embilipitiya on several official engagements. I could not come to Colombo. I said that he could come to Embilipitiya if he wanted to see me. He came and wanted me to stop the war. I did not yield to that request. Bombs do not explode, and people do not get killed in large numbers now. Anyone can go to the north or east now.”

SLPP leader Mahinda Rajapaksa greets Rajavarothayam Sampanthan, the TNA leader. Looking on is Sampanthan’s daughter Krishanthini

Talks with Tamil parties

Last Friday, a TNA delegation met President Wickremesinghe, at the presidential secretariat. Taking part in the event, TNA spokesperson Abraham Sumanthiran said, were Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena, Justice and Constitutional Affairs Minister Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe and Fisheries Minister Douglas Devananda.  The talks lasted for one hour from 5.00 p.m. The TNA was represented by TNA Parliamentary group leader R. Sampanthan, MPs Selvam Adaikalanathan, Dharmalingam Siddarthan and Sumanthiran.

The talks, Sumanthiran said, were a continuation of the dialogue on December 13. He added: “At the previous meeting we reached certain understanding. Particularly regarding the release of the people’s lands now occupied by the security forces in the north and the release of political prisoners. However, at Friday’s meeting, the government side showed no interest in keeping to the two promises of releasing lands and political prisoners. The President said he would be visiting the north on Thai Pongal day and discuss with the security forces the release of lands occupied by them. There was no solution to the political prisoner’s issue as well. However, we were told that they are ready to implement the 13th Amendment. We are disappointed at the outcome as we were expecting speedy solutions to the issues. We are in doubt whether we should take part in the next round of talks as it would be fruitless. We feel that the government is dragging the issues without finding solutions. The issues have been there for more than three decades. The next round of talks has been scheduled for January 10,11 and 12. The TNA will be meeting in Colombo before the next scheduled dates for discussions to decide our stance and whether we should continue with the talks.” Sumanthiran said that the TNA would launch “nonviolent protests” if the talks did not materialise.

President busy with foreign
-affairs related matters

Other than the domestic issues, the task of dealing with several foreign affairs-related issues has fallen on President Wickremesinghe. Last week, he attended a onetime British Prime Minister, David Cameron to a four-course lunch at the Kingsbury Hotel. Cameron led a Conservative and Liberal coalition government from 2010 to 2016. Taking part were fifty invitees that included diplomats, businessmen and ministers. Cameron is now a lecturer at an educational institution in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The visit was arranged by Nirj Deva, a onetime British parliamentarian who plays the role of a Sri Lankan special envoy for entire Europe. Playing host at the lunch was Deva whose invitation introduced himself as “Vishwa Keerthi, Sri Lanka Abhimani Nirj Deva, Presidential Envoy for Europe…”

Ahead of the lunch, Deva who counts friends both in the government and the opposition, had a message for the British High Commissioner in Sri Lanka, Sarah Hulton. They were awaiting the arrival of Cameron when Deva turned to Hulton and remarked that their own former Prime Minister had rejected the British government’s travel advisory and turned up in Sri Lanka.

This travel advisory issued on December 12, 2022, said among other matters that:  “Sri Lanka is experiencing a severe economic crisis which has led to shortages of necessities including medicines, cooking gas, fuel, and food. The major shortage of fuel (diesel and petrol) is affecting transport, businesses, and emergency services. Hospitals and other medical services such as ambulances may be affected by shortages. There are daily power cuts due to electricity rationing.  It is more important than ever to get appropriate travel insurance and check it provides sufficient cover.  Protests about the economic situation have led to violence against peaceful protesters in recent months, resulting in injuries and loss of life. Tear gas and water cannons have been used to disperse protesters. Protests, demonstrations, roadblocks, and violent unrest could occur at short notice. Curfews and emergency regulations may also be imposed. You should be vigilant, avoid large gatherings and keep up to date with developments via this travel advice and local media….”

Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih was also expected to call on President Wickremesinghe this week. This was during a visit to Colombo which included treatment at a private medical institution. However, he left earlier than expected due to a meeting of his Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). They were deliberating on who their candidate would be for the September presidential election. Solih has been picked for the task. His close associate and now archrival Mohamed Nasheed will be his rival candidate. Nasheed is campaigning for the abolition of the presidency and a return to the parliamentary form of government. The would-be presidential aspirant, ex-President Abdulla Yameen, is now serving a eleven-year jail term for alleged bribery and corruption.

SAARC crisis

A Nepali newspaper, Kathmandu Post, has reported that Sri Lankan diplomat Esala Weerakoon, a former Foreign Secretary and now Secretary General of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), due to retire in March, may continue in that post. Here is what it said:

“For the first time since its inception some 38 years ago, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is facing an unprecedented crisis over who will be the next secretary general of the regional grouping, which currently is in a moribund state

“With the incumbent SAARC Secretary General Esala Ruwan Weerakoon of Sri Lanka all set to complete his tenure in March 2023, there is confusion as to who would replace Weerakoon. It is the turn of Afghanistan to recommend a new Saarc secretary general, but the current regime in Kabul is not recognised by any of the member states of the regional organisation following that country’s takeover by the Taliban in August last year.

“Before Weerakoon retires, member states have to reach an understanding on his replacement.

“As the current chair of the SAARC, Nepal has started taking a lead to remove this hurdle, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Weerakoon also met with Foreign Secretary Bharat Raj Paudyal this week to discuss how to remove the confusion, as the SAARC Charter does not envision such a situation.

“Foreign Secretary Paudyal told the Post that the ministry is consulting with member states on seeking a viable option, but they are yet to reach a conclusion.

“We have not reached any conclusion on what would be the best option to remove the present hurdle. We are also consulting with the member states. We will soon conclude this matter,” Paudyal said.

“The Saarc Secretariat has already informed member states that Weerakoon is going to leave in March and has held several rounds of consultations, but any understanding is yet to be reached, said a Ministry of Foreign Affairs official, who is privy to the developments.

“Officials have suggested either giving another term to the incumbent Weerakoon until a new secretary general gets appointed, or jumping over to Bangladesh, requesting it to recommend the next secretary general, said a joint secretary at the foreign ministry. The SAARC summit and the appointment of secretary general take place by the English alphabetical order, so it is Afghanistan’s turn to recommend a new secretary general after Weerakoon of Sri Lanka ends his term.

“Multiple sources told the Post that alternatives are being discussed at different levels to clear the confusion, and among them is giving a year’s extension to the incumbent secretary general.

“We expect to find some alternative by then,” the joint secretary at foreign ministry said. For this, Sri Lanka will have to write to the government of Nepal, requesting Weerakoon’s extension. Nepal will then circulate this request among member states for their approval. As per the SAARC tradition, all decisions are taken with the consensus of member states and if even any one rejects a proposal, it is deemed as rejected by all.

“The second option, according to government officials, is to skip the alphabetical order to Bangladesh, requesting it to recommend the next secretary general. “But we doubt Pakistan will accept this offer. Because if Bangladesh accepts this offer, the next Saarc Summit would be held in Dhaka, which Islamabad would definitely oppose,” a Nepali diplomat said.

“Due to a longstanding rivalry between India and Pakistan, the SAARC process has been stalled since 2016, after India refused to participate in the 19th SAARC Summit that was supposed to take place in Pakistan.

“The summit was cancelled after an attack on an Indian army camp in Kashmir. India blamed Pakistan for the attack and decided to pull out of the summit, a decision that was backed by a majority of the member states. Then came the crisis in Afghanistan, following the country’s takeover by the Taliban last year, which further complicated the SAARC process; seven other member states are yet to recognise the new regime in Kabul.

“If all these alternatives fail, then as the chair of SAARC, Nepal can recommend the name of a new SAARC secretary general to replace Weerakoon,” the diplomat added. “And, when Nepal’s turn comes after a few years, the next country in line, Pakistan, can recommend its secretary general in Nepal’s place.”

“Neither the member states nor the SAARC charter foresaw this kind of a complicated situation. According to the joint secretary, as soon as a new foreign minister assumes office, the ministry would prioritise the resolution of the ongoing crisis and confusion over the Saarc secretary general.

“As Dhaka hosts the permanent secretariat of another regional organisation, Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTC), Bangladesh appears keen to push the alternative regional forum, the Nepali diplomat said.

“We need to attach a similar kind of importance and priority to SAARC to give it a new lease of life,” he added.

“In view of the current unprecedented situation in which the regime in Afghanistan is not recognised by any SAARC member state, there needs to be a consensus to skip the alphabetical rotation. I feel the safest thing to do is to have the incumbent secretary general continue,” said Nischal Nath Pandey, director of the Centre for South Asian Studies, a Kathmandu-based regional think tank.”

Quite clearly, the New Year has begun with two major issues to be resolved by President Wickremesinghe. One is the local council elections, with increasing signs that may not be held. The other is the formulation of an ethnic reconciliation package. Its fruition, contrary to earlier forecasts by the government, will not materialise by February 4. This is on top of a multitude of economic issues that remain to be resolved. An error crept into these columns last week when reference was made to Russian built AN 32 “helicopters.” They are troop transport planes.