Sunday Times 2
Faint light at the end of the tunnel for Myanmar
View(s):The relentless and determined struggle of the people of Myanmar for nearly two years against the dictatorship of a military junta to save democracy showed positive signs of fruition in the last week of December last year. Their ultimate goal of success, however, is not yet discernible and is dependent much on the many twists and turns geopolitics may take.
Of the two main developments that could help drive out the generals ruling the country, one was the United Nations Security Council adopting a resolution which demands the end to violence by the State Administrative Council — the official name of the military Junta — and the release of National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi and President U Win Myint who were arbitrarily detained, like other political prisoners. The resolution calls upon all parties to respect human rights, fundamental freedoms and the Rule of Law.
In this file photo taken on September 19, 2017, Myanmar's State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi delivers a national address in Naypyidaw. A Myanmar junta court jailed ousted civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi for seven years for corruption on December 30, 2022, a legal source told AFP, ending the 18-month trial of the Nobel laureate.
All previous resolutions on Myanmar failed to be adopted because Russia and China used their veto powers. The East-West confrontation between these two countries that backed the military junta and the Western nations which wanted democracy restored paralysed the UNSC action in Myanmar.
The other positive development was both houses of the US Congress passing the Burma Act to provide non-military aid to the National Unity Government (which is opposing the military junta) and its affiliate organisations such as the Civilian Peoples’ Defence Forces and Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs). The Burma Act seeks to prevent the military regime from acquiring weapons and expands sanctions against businesses working together with the junta.
However, this legislation is yet to be signed into law by President Biden. There is speculation whether it would be used as a diplomatic device to prevent the arming of the Junta by Russia and China or would actually happen, like the assistance provided to the Ukraine government by the United States, is to be seen.
The UNSC resolution was adopted on December 22. The military court appointed on December 30 by Gen. Min Aung Hliang, the leader of the Junta, convicted Suu Kyi and President U Win Myint for seven years on abuse of power. They were accused of hiring a helicopter at state expense for use by a government minister.
Suu Kyi had already been sentenced to 26 years imprisonment on criminal charges in a series of prosecutions launched by the junta after her February 1 arrest. This brings the total number of years the 77-year-old leader has to serve to 33. She had been placed under house arrest for 16 years by previous military regimes after she was made the leader of the NLD.
Suu Kyi has rejected all accusations she had been charged with and, according to unofficial reports, will appeal against these convictions. The military courts that had imposed these convictions had heard these cases behind closed doors without the presence of the media, the public and diplomats. Her lawyers had been forbidden to pass information regarding the proceedings. Such is the justice of the military courts of Myanmar. The Junta has dismissed the UNSC resolution on the grounds that it deals with purely internal affairs of the nation.
This heroic woman remains the undisputed leader of the 55 million people of Myanmar. At least 2,400 political prisoners had been killed and 16,000 political prisoners incarcerated since the takeover by the military junta.
The grim irony is that on January 4, Myanmar celebrated her 75th Anniversary of Independence and the junta leader Gen. Hlaing could not but help recall the man who was instrumental in winning that Independence from the British: Gen. Aung San — the father of Aung San Suu Kyi!
On Independence Day it was announced that the former NLD minister of Religious and Cultural Affairs along with some journalists and 7021 prisoners were released. But reports said that the number of political prisoners among those released was not clear.
Political analysts are attempting to determine the reasons why China and Russia — particularly China — did not veto the UNSC resolution as before.
Irrawaddy, an independent news organisation of Myanmar, quoted a former US Ambassador to Myanmar Scot Marcial (2016-2020) as saying in an interview that China is going to be very pragmatic about Myanmar. He points out that China worked with old military regimes and was happy to work with the NLD government of Suu Kyi and had good relations. They work with the current Junta because it is the power China has to deal with. In his opinion, there is no deep attachment or loyalty to the junta. If various forces aligned against the military were able to push the military out, China may be happy to work with forces in government. Myanmar was not a US-China issue. If it was so, China may be provoked even to back the junta, the former ambassador said.
Another development had been that seven representatives of Myanmar’s ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) had met the Chinese special envoy to Myanmar, Deng Xigun, in China’s Yunnan Province in the last week of December, Irrawaddy reported. Deng Xigun also arrived in Naypyitaw after meeting the EOAs, Irrawaddy said. These moves of China are yet inexplicable and remain in the realm of speculation.
Meanwhile, the junta is preparing for a so-called election in August. Irrawaddy quoting Naypyitaw sources said that the regime is likely to form a transitional council in which Acting President U Myint Swe will play an active role. The junta is preparing to rig elections as it did in 2010 and there was no hope for a fair election. The military is building a proxy party, the Union of Solidarity and Development Party with generals taking key positions.
The National Unity Government (NUG) with 20 other organisations involved in the nationwide movement against the junta has presented a road map on how to lead the country out of the current mire. The strategy is to isolate the leader Gen Hlaing and exclude him in talks with Myanmar’s neighbours, other relevant countries in the Indo-Pacific region and key global actors. Active dialogue with such nations without the junta leaders would result in instability of his position in the army which is already unstable.
Despite the bombastic claims of the junta leader and his generals of crushing the Opposition, resistance continues in the countryside with people who have taken to the jungles with primitive weaponry but are making heavy strikes against the Junta forces. Reports said that as many as 40 government soldiers were killed by opposition forces in the first few days of this year while junta’s helicopters strafed villages setting houses on fire and making people flee.
The Junta is also facing the same problem as Sri Lanka: scarce foreign resources. Gen. Hlaing has advised the people to do their marketing on bicycles to save fuel.
Military leaders and even non-military leaders like ours cannot resist military parades. Irrawaddy reported a grand Independence Day Parade being staged in the capital at a cost that a war-torn, impoverished country cannot afford. The objective is to project on TV the power of the ruling government to the people and give the outside world a picture of false prosperity.
The junta has no IMF to turn to. Its foreign currency lenders are only Russia and China. Analysts query: If non-vetoing of the UNSC resolution indicates a change of heart of Russia and China towards the Junta, what would its fate be?
India is the third country that abstained from voting on the UNSC resolution despite one of its claims for a permanent Security Council seat being it is the largest democracy in the world. Yet, it did not vote for a return to democracy in the country with which it shares a common border. Despite its claim to be the leader of the Non-Aligned Movement, India is now aligning itself with power blocs even opposed to each other in the interests of the ruling BJP.
This brings into question the policy that Sri Lanka is adopting towards Myanmar under President Ranil Wickremesinghe. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, a former Lt. Colonel of the Sri Lanka army, had no qualms in dealing with the Myanmar junta and even bought large stocks of rice from that country boosting its scarce foreign exchange reserves. The fact that the 55 million population, 75 percent Buddhists, were being suppressed under the jackboot of the military appeared to be of no concern.
What’s Wickremesinghe’s Myanmar policy? The Sri Lanka constitution declares that Buddhism is accorded the foremost place and it shall be the duty of the state to protect and foster the Buddha Sasana while assuring other religions their rights. Does it imply that the Sri Lankan state should only protect and foster Buddhism in Lanka or endeavour to do so wherever Buddhists are?
(The writer is a former editor of The Sunday Island, The Island and consultant editor of the Sunday Leader)